Author: pat
Sweet 16
Here we go.
Cornell (+8.5) “@” Kentucky
So apparently whoever the higher seed is, is labeled the home team. This Cornell line is interesting. I actually think it is very accurate, but what makes me like Cornell here is that I feel they have a much higher chance of winning than most 8 to 9 point underdogs. For instance, Purdue is an eight point underdog and I don’t think they have a prayer of beating Duke.
Butler (+6) “@” Syracuse
I think this line is a bit low, it is a continuation of what seems like a season-long trend of over-valuing Butler and under-valuing Syracuse. I would personally have this at a whisker under double digits.
Xavier “@” Kansas State (under 154)
I am basing this entirely on a four second blurb I saw the other day on one of the networks where a commentator said Kansas St defense was awesome but he wasn’t sure where they were going to get points from in subsequent rounds. That, combined with a pretty hefty number of 154 makes me like the under. That is my entire reasoning.
Northern Iowa (+1) “@” Michigan St
I have Michigan St in the final four of my brackets so they damn well better beat these guys. I know Lucas is out, but the Mich St offense was scoring (when they could shoot the ball) just fine the other day without him. The thing that makes me nervous is that in the final minutes of the Maryland game, Maryland would trap and Mich St had no answers. In fact I watched a replay of the game and if you watch, Maryland takes the trap off when they go ahead by one with like 38 seconds to go. I know hindsight is easy, but they should NEVER have taken the full-court pressure off. Mich St would have been toast. Instead, the Spartans go down and score on their next two possessions with no trap to beat. With that being said, this is why they pay Tom Izzo the big bucks. It’s up to him to prepare a makeshift game plan. A team without a point guard is a shell of itself (see Texas), but Izzo is one of a very select group of coaches who I feel can figure something out.
Purdue (+8) “@” Duke
This game could be an absolute blowout in my opinion. If Duke is suspect, Purdue is that to the nth degree with Hummel out. This game continues Duke’s stroll.
When Good/Great Programs Have a Down Year
I think this is the important gambling point I am going to take away from college basketball this year. With most legitimate players having a shelf-life of one to two years, it seems that college basketball programs are more susceptible to year-by-year fluctuations in talent than virtually any other gambling related sport. Consequently, even good or really great programs can have occasional off years.
The obvious examples of this in the 2009-2010 CB season were Connecticut and North Carolina. Both had records around .500 which are an anomaly to say the least and they were both train wrecks against the spread, North Carolina was 9-19 and UConn at 12-18.
I think this relates to the overall issue that when betting sports its preferable to abandon preconceptions as much as possible and be a cold judge of actual talent. Vegas gradually revalued both teams during the year, but this was a slow process, and gamblers who had the nuts to go against name recognition obviously did pretty damn well.
This should be a topic of conversation on this Blog at the beginning of the next CB season.
NBA picks – A Recap
So yesterday I went 1-4. There were actually six games but the Philly one was not listed Sunday morning, we will ignore that game and pretend it didn’t happen. Accordingly, I finished the week at 28-24-1, or at 54% Which I think means that if I had placed thirty dollar bets on everything, and everything had been -110, I would have a net positive of thirty-six bucks. Take that Vegas. Tremble. I might be wrong on the math if anyone wants to check that out. This upcoming week, college basketball. And speaking of which, Fairfield (+8) plays Siena this evening in the MAAC Chamionships.
NBA Picks – Mar 07
Worst day of the week at 3-6 yesterday. Now at 27-20-1. The experiment concludes………..
Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5) @ Orlando
Houston (-2) @ Detroit
Washington (+12) @ Boston
Oklahoma City (-3.5) @ Sacramento
Portland (+6.5) @ Denver
NBA Picks – Mar 06
Went 6-4-1 yesterday. That’s brings us to 24-14-1 on the week, or right around 63%. Let’s go
Golden State (+10.5) @ Charlotte
Atlanta (+1.5) @ Miami
New Jersey (+8) @ New York
Houston (-3.5) @ Minnesota
Dallas (-1) @ Chicago
San Antonio (-1.5) @ Memphis
Cleveland (-3.5) @ Miliwaukee
Los Angeles Clippers (+13.5) @ Utah
Indiana (+12.5) @ Phoenix
NBA Picks – Mar 05
Went 1-2 yesterday. That’s brings us to 18-10 on the week, or 64%. Looks like eleven games on tap tonight. Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go
Milwaukee (-4) @ Washington
Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Charlotte
Detroit (+12) @ Cleveland
New York (+8) @ Toronto
Boston (-6) @ Philadelphia
Golden State (+13) @ Atlanta
Orlando (-10) @ New Jersey
Sacramento (+8.5) @ Dallas
Indiana (+10) @ Denver
New Orleans (+8) @ San Antonio
Oklahoma City (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Picks – Mar 04
I went 8-4 yesterday. My mark for the week is now 17-8, I am at exactly 68% for the week. On to the picks.
Memphis (+5.5) @ Chicago
Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5) @ Miami
Utah (+1.5) @ Phoenix
NBA Picks – Mar 03
Went 3-1 yesterday. I am currently at 69% for the week. Lots of games tonight. Let’s see what happens. Side note, Van Tran as of 11pm last night was up a grand on the week so far.
Golden State (+15) @ Orlando
Philapdelphia (+8.5) @ Atlanta
Cleveland (-9.5) @ New Jersey
Charlotte (+4.5) @ Boston
Detroit (+3.5) @ New York
Washington (+10) @ Milwaukee
Memphis (+2) @ New Orleans
Minnesota (+14) @ Dallas
Sacramento (+7.5) @ Houston
Oklahoma City (+7.5) @ Denver
Indiana (+8.5) @ Portland
Phoenix (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Picks – Mar 02
Went 6-3 yesterday. I currently sit at 66% for the week. Let’s keep this train rolling, may have time to add some college games…and apparently i will ’cause I just looked and there’s only two pro games. Here we go
Sacramento (+10.5) @ Oklahoma City
Indiana (+12) @ Los Angeles Lakers
EDIT : TWO ADDITIONAL GAMES, WERE NOT ON PINNACLESPORTS THIS MORNING
Boston (-4.5) @ Detroit
Golden State (+10.5) @ Miami
I just looked at college lines and I am clueless. I’ll try to do some work on this as conference champ week gets going soon.
NBA Picks – Mar 01
A few days, weeks, whatever ago I made a post saying I was going to start picking games and keeping track of them. But a few roadblocks have managed to stop this from happening. So I am going to do something different and for the next week I am simply going to force myself to make picks against the spread in the NBA. These should not be considered knowledge based picks, I am simply forcing myself to pick every game to see if I have a clue as to what’s going on. Here we go
Dallas (+3) @ Charlotte
Orlando (-4) @ Philadelphia
New York (+11) @ Cleveland
San Antonio (-2.5) @ New Orleans
Atlanta (+1) @ Chicago
Portland (-1) @ Memphis
Toronto (+6) @ Houston
Denver (+2.5) @ Phoenix
Utah (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers
This is me simply dragging myself towards taking the first step on making daily picks. We’ll see how things went with these tomorrow when I post tomorrow’s picks.
