Category: NCAA Football
This Things I Believe (2)
Steelers OLine
We can say with confidence the Steelers OLine is going to look much different this year than from units of the recent past. We are not pointing out anything new by noting the eye-opening collective departures of proven Pro-Bowl talent players DeCastro, Pouncey, and Villanueva, not to mention Ramon Foster retiring before the 2020 season. As a result of this turnover, some folks are predicting rough times for the Steelers offense, which struggled at times last year as it was, especially in the run game. Whoever lines up will obviously be tasked with protecting an aging QB often described as “statuesque.” If you take an important unit that performed poorly last year, and then strip it of essentially all its proven talent, it would seem bad times are almost inevitable. And then the dominoes knock each other over and Steeler short-sellers have Pittsburgh finishing 3rd or 4th in their division. An already subpar OLine is only going to be worse this year. Ben, who has been integral to the success of PIT over the years is going to get his 300 year-old ass bombarded routinely. He will get hurt (or at least be super ineffective), the offense will be a shell of itself, Pittsburgh will be a collective hot mess. All of these things might happen, but what I am looking to point out here is that this argument rests on not 1, but 2 assumptions – that the OLine unit will be inevitably super poor, and ultimately that will be a main factor in a possible Steeler downfall this year. Tomlin recently noted; “(Last year) We were last in the league in rushing. We have nowhere to go but up from certain aspects.” That team finished 12-4…Even if the OLine proves a borderline disaster (which is not a given), there still exists the chance it ultimately just doesnt really matter in the standings.
As I noted yesterday, the idea behind this particular series of blurbs is to stick to statements we can make that are essentially fact. The story line of a low-grade OLine causing the Steelers to plummet in the standings might prove largely accurate…but all we can say for certain is that the PIT OLine will be very different than in years past. The team recently signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner at OG and I would imagine they will continue to pursue reinforcements.
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
March Madness Hedge Sunday
Florida State +2
Parlay @ +140: Gonzaga -1000 and FSU ML +120
Teaser: UCLA +6.5 and USC -2
Navy vs Army Annual UNDER Bet
Navy vs Army UNDER 39 (-110)
Now down to 36. We take this every year, and it’s hit 90% of the time the last 12 years. The game is in West Point this year due to the pandemic, but I still expect a low scoring slugfest b/t these two in one of America’s oldest football darbys.
Central Michigan @ Toledo OVER 54 (-110)
UFC
Junior Dos Santos +300
Thanksgiving Degen Turkey
Lions vs Texans UNDER 51.5
Washington ML +130
NCAA Special: New Mexico -6.5
DFS:
Miracle Covers COVID Special
We got a new podcast!
Lou (@miraclecovers) and Sean (@Seanismoney) talk about our new COVID world as it pertains to betting, our thoughts on the Champions League restart, why the NBA bubble is fun and our plays going into the playoffs, why MLB baseball is strange with no fans where no one under the age of 40 is watching, and why the NCAA sucks.
Army/Navy and UFC 245
Army vs Navy UNDER 41 (-105)
This has hit 9 out of the last 11 meetings. Also gonna be raining in Philly today
UFC 245:
Ben Saunders +275
Kamaru Usman wins by Decision EVEN
New Podcast and Week 4 plays for NFL
We have a new podcast! Of course we lose half of it because my mic shit the bed talking about the Chargers (alot like Freddie Kitchens’ play calling vs the Rams last week. LOL running a draw on 4th and 9).
In what we lost, we talked about how the last time the Browns were on SNF, was the infamous miracle cover game that birthed this website (when Romeo Crennel went for a FG instead of a TD on 4th and 6 down 10-3 with 3 min left in the 4th Quarter vs the Steelers, who then proceeded to run out the clock and preserve the +4.5 cover). I did mention the Browns look like a 6-10 team who is going to spend $12 million/yearto bring in Jim Harbaugh next year probably. Also we chatted on how the Ravens were correct in their aggressive play vs the Chiefs, Pat Mahomes is probably going to be the MVP (I have the prop now at +100), and how the new young mobile QBs like Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minshew are needed in today’s NFL game because most QBs aren’t that good enough to stand in the pocket like Brady.
Here’s my plays this week:
Bears -1.5 (-110)
Coin flip game, I don’t see how Minnesota scores 17 points in this one.
TEASER +150:
KC -7
IND -7
BAL -7
People’s ML Parlay -125:
Michigan State -700
Utah State -2800
Fresno State -1493
Los Angeles Chargers -1100
Los Angeles Rams -500
UL Monroe -700
DFS:
NCAAF Over/Unders
What a wonderful time of year. (-150) will be the cut-off to denote heavy juice.
AFA – 6.5 (O -237)
Akron – 3.5 (U -161)
Alabama – 11 (O -165)
App. State – 9
Arizona – 7 (U -256)
ASU – 7
Arkansas – 5
Arkansas St – 7.5
Army – 10
Auburn – 7.5
Ball State – 4
Baylor – 7 (O -210)
Boise St – 10
Boston College – 6 (U -161)
Bowling Green – 3 (O -153)
Buffalo – 6
BYU – 6.5
California – 6 (U -307)
Central Mich – 4
Charlotte – 4.5
Cincinnati – 7 (O -221)
Clemson – 11.5
Coastal Carolina – 4.5
Colorado – 4.5 (U -256)
Colorado St – 3.5
UConn – 2.5
Duke – 5.5
ECU – 4 (O -277)
East Michigan – 6.5 (U -163)
FIU – 7.5
Florida – 9 (U -164)
FAU – 8 (U -178)
FSU – 7 (O -212)
Fresno St – 8 (U -171)
UGA – 11 (U -212)
Ga State – 3.5 (O -180)
Ga Tech – 4 (U -196)
Hawaii – 5.5 (O -159)
Houston – 7 (O -168)
Illinois – 3.5 (O -251)
Indiana – 6 (O -236)
Iowa – 8
Iowa State – 8
Kansas – 3 (U -158)
K State – 5.5
Kent State – 4 (U -185)
Kentucky – 6.5
Liberty – 5.5
Louisiana-Lafayette – 6 (O -173)
La Tech – 7.5
Louisville – 3.5 (O -155)
LSU – 9 (O -167)
Marshall – 7 (O -215)
Maryland – 4
UMass – 2.5
Memphis – 9.5
Miami FL – 8.5 (O -183)
Miami OH – 6 (U -205)
Michigan – 9.5 (O -253)
Mich St – 7.5 (O -225)
MTSU – 5.5 (U -163)
Minnesota – 7.5 (O -159)
Ole Miss – 5
Miss State – 8
Mizzuo – 7.5 (O -202)
Navy – 5
NC State – 7.5 (U -150)
Nebraska – 8.5
Nevada – 6.5 (U -200)
New Mexico – 5 (U -242)
New Mexico St – 3.5
UNC – 4.5 (O -167)
No Texas – 7.5 (O -160)
No Illinois – 7 (U -202)
Northwestern – 6 (O -163)
Notre Dame – 8.5 (O -234)
Ohio – 7.5 (O -173)
Ohio State – 10.5 (U -196)
Oklahoma – 10.5
Ok State – 7
ODU – 4.5 (U -281)
Oregon – 8.5 (O -174)
Oregon St – 2 (O -264)
Penn State – 8.5
Pittsburgh – 6
Purdue – 7
Rice – 2.5 (U -234)
San Diego St – 8
San Jose St – 2.5 (O -206)
SMU – 6 (O -163)
So Alabama – 2.5
So Carolina – 6 (U -150)
So Miss – 7.5 (U -155)
Stanford – 6.5
Syracuse – 7.5
TCU – 7.5
Temple – 6.5
Tennessee – 6.5
Texas – 9.5 (U -242)
Texas A&M – 7.5
Texas St – 4.5 (O -181)
Texas Tech – 6.5 (U -160)
Toledo – 8
Troy – 6.5 (O -202)
Tulane – 5.5 (O -168)
Tulsa – 4.5
UAB – 7 (O -151)
UCF – 9.5
UCLA – 5.5 (O -187)
UL Monroe – 5
UNLV – 4
USC – 7
USF – 7 (U -188)
Utah – 9 (O -160)
Utah St – 7 (U -188)
UTEP – 3
UTSA – 2.5 (O -212)
Vandy – 5 (U -157)
UVA – 7.5 (O -176)
Va Tech – 8 (O -174)
Wake Forest – 6
Washington – 9.5
Washington St – 8
WVU – 5
West Michigan – 7.5
Wisconsin -8.5 (U -153)
WKU – 5 (O -176)
Wyoming – 5.5
Week 14 NFL, Army/Navy Under, UFC 231
NFL:
Oakland +10.5 (-105)
We have been betting against Oakland all year, including just shipping the Under season total (7.5 – thanks Lou!), but they are 2 in their last 3 ATS and we also get back on the “Bet against Big Ben on the road when he is a 6 or more favorite” trend that has worked out since 2015 (which is crazy). Also, the Steelers, losers of 2 of their last 3 (and really should be 3 if Doug Marrone wasn’t such a nit..at least the Jags covered) won’t have James Conner for this one, instead having a backup TE in Samuels carry the load at RB.
Los Angeles -14 (-110)
The Bengals suck. Also, the Chargers are playing darn well.
Chiefs vs Ravens Under 51
No K.Hunt, rookie QB for BAL, good defense in Baltimore…..probably a rock fight win for the Chiefs here
TEASER +140:
Miami +8
Kansas City -7
New Orleans -9
DFS:
NCAA:
Army/Navy Under 40 (-125)
This will probably crash to 36.5 or even lower before gametime. The UNDER has hit 12 times in a row in this game, and the also under has hit in all Commander-in-Chief darbys (Air Force, Navy, Army) this year.
UFC 231:
Shevchenko vs Joanna Fight Goes to Distance – YES @ -215
