Author: pat
Bears/Packers
Let’s talk about the Bears/Packers game. The line of Packers -3.5 is pretty damn interesting. There are several factors that Vegas had to deal with in making the line, the most important probably being that essentially every one and their mother seems to bet the Packers. I’ve brought this example up a few times on this site but the classic case was last year when their road playoff game against the Cardinals went from Cards -3 to Pack -2.5.
When I got over the shock of seeing a road #6 seed as a favorite in a conference championship, my thought was Vegas simply said, “You know what, we know you’re going to bet Green Bay anyway, here. Deal with this. Minus three, Bitches.” And bitches did deal, the original line I saw had GB -3 and the next thing it’s -3.5 and even -4 at some places. This in spite of the fact that the teams split the season series, and the Packers only won the final game in Green Bay, a game they had to win, and a game that meant nothing to Chicago, 10-3.
There is one crucial stat that GB supporters can look to and that’s point differential. Did you know that the Packers were second in the NFL in point differential at +148? This with Aaron Rodgers missing time and/or half woozy at points during the season. And now he’s healthy. This is where people seriously betting GB make their case. The Packers, when healthy this year, play so well, that you have to ignore the ridiculousness of betting against a home underdog, that this Packer team is one of those special teams where guidelines like home field advantage don’t really apply. Hence why they walk into Chicago a favorite, as they walked into Atlanta as a pick ‘ em against a well rested team that had beaten them two months earlier.
For my money (and I mean that, I have 50 dollars on this with JaPan) I am going with Chicago. I actually grabbed them at +3 thinking the line would only move in the direction of a pick em, oops. I could see Cutler throwing 4 INTs, one or more for a pick 6, and GB winning 38-14. But at the end of the day I think of this game as being pretty even from a match-up perspective, with the key differences being the game is in Chicago and I am getting 3 points right from the kickoff. We’ll see what happens. The team Green Bay finished second to in point differential? The Patriots, oops.
As for Jets/Pitt, my gut is to like the Jets at +3.5.
For those of you paying attention…
And you know who you are…sean is lighting it up. If you look at Sean’s picks it is amazing how common sense his approach is. Talking about jets/bears over, “too much talent on the field here to not score.” Discussing the Packers, “Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs.” So what does he do, he bets accordingly. He saw the same line we all did, Ravens -3.5 at Cleveland and while we were all rationalizing how the Browns would cover, Sean bet the Ravens. Well done, Sean.
College B’ball
For those of you interested the Matrix site was wrong with its Wash St pick. I opted not to bet with the site before the game. The runners of the site note that they tend to struggle more during the early parts of the year because the formula they use relies heavily on current year game results, and K St had been blown out by Duke previously, which seemed to me would skew things a bit too much. I just stayed away entirely from the game, which K St won by 5. My original plan was to tell VT about the computer’s pick but when I saw the pick, I didn’t. That pick is one that does not sync with VT’s betting style. VT will definitely bet some underdogs but his trademark is to bet favorites who he feels are not getting enough respect. When a top tier is favored by only a few points. Betting Wash St in that game, especially when they are only +2.5, is a complete 180. Portland 58 Montana 54, Marist 80 Niagara 72, Idaho 63 North Dakota 42, Georgia 66 UAB 64, Iona 94 Canisus 85, Villanova 71 St Joseph’s 60 This means that ATS…
- Home teams were 3-3
- Ranked or higher ranked teams were 0-1
- Favorites and underdogs were 3-3
Home, away, favorite, underdog, all end up being at .500 ATS throughout this project, which means Vegas is batting 1.000.
NCAA B’Ball continued
First things first on a few issues. The random Matrix web site hit the money with the Samford pick. Well done! So I won 15 bucks betting against a team that up until yesterday I didn’t know had a Division I program. People might call that a little nutty to be betting money on something like that. And to that I say, please meet my gambling insane roommate who did a three team round-robin bet with the top 3 teams that the web site he never had heard of recommended. And he hit all three.
For those who are interested in riding the hot streak the link is this.
I am slightly confused at the layout, they offer two sets of picks, one using “Decision Tree” model and one using “Similar Games” model and I haven’t looked into things enough to figure exactly what the hell they are talking about but me and V used the Decision Tree model last night, and if you go with that you’ll be taking Wash St tonight. Take that for what it’s worth.
Second, there a chance this site has subscribers. Recently there was a comment from “Paul.” Paul notes…
“I’ve been reading this website for a little while now and I think that (Pat’s) cockiness is getting the better of (him). Maybe (Pat) should take it down a notch.”
That’s right, it’s ffffffffffffFFFFFFFFFFAAAAAAANNNNN MAIL!
How do you even find this site? This is exciting! Paul’s problem with me is based on his idea that through this Project I am trying to show I have more savvy than Vegas. But the real main issue with the College Basketball thing is just trying to keep myself current. If it wasn’t for this thing I wouldn’t know that Marist is just as horrible this year as they were last year, 0 wins in real life and ATS. Let’s see how Vegas did last night…Murray St 74 E Kentucky 72, Arizona St 54 Baylor 68, Rider 88 Manhattan 59, Mercer 67 Belmont 89, UCLA 76 Kansas 77, Oral Roberts 71 Western Illinois 58. Looking back I think I messed up and there wasn’t a spread on the Mercer Belmont game. I’ll update the stats and such if I was wrong. With what we got, ATS…
- Home teams were 2-3
- Ranked or ranked higher teams were 1-1
- Favorites were 3-2
Moving forward…
- Portland (+3.5) @ Montana
- Niagra (-6.5) @ Marist
- North Dakota (+10) @ Idaho
- UAB (+3) @ Georgia
- Canisus (+8.5) @ Iona
- St Joseph’s (+19) @ Villanova
NCAA Lines
Continuing project from a few days ago. Going back to the results of the first set of games we picked…Illinois 73 Yale 47, UTEP 73 New Mexico St 56, Santa Clara 87 N Colorado 84, Kentucky 74 Washington 67, Texas Tech 103 Georgia Southern 79, UC Davis 61 Sacramento St 54. Home team is in italics, bold team covered. ATS Notes
- Home teams were 3-2
- Ranked or ranked higher teams were 2-0
- Favorites and underdogs were 3-3
So Vegas was pretty spot on, no surprise there. Let’s keep the train rolling.
- Murray St (-4) @ E Kentucky
- Arizona St (+9.5) @ Baylor
- Rider (-5.5) @ Manhattan
- Mercer @ Belmont
- UCLA (17.5) @ Kansas
- Oral Roberts (-6.5) @ Western Illinois
And as a special note I stumbled across a web site that gives out free picks on college basketball games that they throw into something I like to picture as being essentially equivalent to the Matrix and what got spit out as their number one confidence pick for tonight is…Samford as a home pick em against W Carolina. Sure you might be only slightly certain that the W in W Carolina stands for Western, but that doesn’t matter. Let’s see what this Matrix machine is capable of, I got 15 bucks on it.
How Far Off is Vegas on College Basketball (Probably Not Very)
New project. I am going to take half a dozen games chosen at random from college b-ball, note the line, and note how far off Vegas was. I am just curious enough to do this, let’s get this started and hope I don’t puss out on this after a day or two. I’ll include games that are at neutral sites, but not ones that are confusing. It took me about ten minutes to figure out (and I’m still not positive about this) that Duke is somehow the listed home team against Kansas St in Kansas City, MO
- Yale (+24.5) @ Illinois
- New Mexico St (+10) @ UTEP
- No. Colorado (+6.5) @ Santa Clara
- Washington (-3.5) N Kentucky
- Georgia Southern (+22) @ Texas Tech
- UC Davis (+1) @ Sacramento St
Current Bets
I went to the site today because I thought Allen had said that he had posted about a big 4 or 5 team teaser he had and hit last week, and I was going to rank on him for backposting on kooky bets he places that actually hit. How often do you see someone making a backpost about a 6 teamer where they went 3-3? But 6-0! I am a genius, where is my keyboard! The world must know! But Allen didn’t make that post, so to make up for it, I’m going to do some backposting myself. Here are some current bets I have going right now…
Heat – No best reg record or no win championship (300)
The only people that actually read this site know this story already but I originally had a 100 dollar bet on this with JaPan. Straight up, he wins if the Heat finish with best overall and win the Championship. After Game 1 where the Heat got smoked by the Celtics I offered him to settle for 75 on the spot and yada, yada, yada, we now have 300 dollars on the line. I would probably be posting this even if the Heat weren’t struggling, but the fact they lost to Indiana last night at home is the ultimate typing catalyst. Don’t want to jinx this but this looks promising to say the least.
Jets (or Bills) to win AFC East vs Patriots (40)
Another Japan bet. The bet was made either directly after the first Jets/Pats or after the Jets/Broncos, I’m pretty sure it was the former. Needless to say booze has made the issue murky. At this point you have to give the Patriots the odds on this due to the schedule and that the Jets go to Foxboro two Monday nights from now. I like JaPan’s chances. As a side not I insisted that I get the Bills also in the bet.
Over/Under Season Win Total Bets – Pub Crawl
In case you were wondering about the baseball O/U pub crawl bet this year I smoked Lou Lou. This one looks promising for Louis but it’s close. I’ll edit this section when I have the numbers in front of me.
Chicago Bears to Win One Game for Remainder of Season
This is not an actual bet at the moment but one Lou Lou proposed Sunday night. He posed the question, what are the chances that the Bears do not win another game the rest of the season? Looking at the schedule, the Bears from here in will be an underdog in most games with a couple of essential coin-flips thrown in. Louis originally wanted 10-1 odds, which I accepted. Weary that I accepted so quickly he then graciously and generously offered himself something like 18-1. Currently we are in a stalemate, I’ll lay 12-1 but Lou Lou is holding out for 15-1. I think this one is going to die on the table. The only hope of action is that this is a bet that has to be made in a non-internet setting since the line doesn’t exist in real life. We’ll see.
Maxim Game
I am going to post whenever I see a game where I feel there was a potential precedent set at some point. They will be called Maxim games. The Maxim scenario here involves…
Team A is a very strong team playing at home. Team B is their even more talented opponent. Team B is so strong that Vegas puts them as 5 point favorites despite playing on the road against a very, very good team. The result of the game…Team B beats the hell out of Team A, absolutely destroys them. The game we are concerned with, is the very next week…
Team A then goes on the road to a play a fairly weak Team C. Team C is not horrible but they are definitely mediocre. Vegas makes Team A a 6 pt favorite. The result of the game…Team C beats the hell out of Team A.
Team A was the University of Utah over the last couple weeks. Were they so dejected by their late season home loss to TCU that they had little chance against Notre Dame on the road? Something to keep an eye on. I’ll keep a look out for relevant examples. Points of interest, college not pro game, at #5 Utah had chance to win out and play in huge bowl game
Now this is What I am Talking About
Good work, Allen. I don’t mean on the picks, but on getting crap down on the site. Any outsider reading Allen’s posts may be potentially blown away by the in-depth knowledge Allen has for such a seemingly random team as William and Mary. He refers to them multiple times as “The Tribe.” Did anyone else have to google search “Tribe college basketball” to figure out who the hell he was talking about? Allen throws “Tribe” into the post like it’s the equivalent of “Orangemen,” or “Lady Vols.” For those not in the know I am pretty sure Allen’s father went to William and Mary so keep half a thought on that when reading future posts. Whenever Allen casually drops “Tribe” references into the conversation in the same tone as “Blue Devils,” now you know why.
Judging Allen’s picks. I’m not going to do this often, but I feel like doing this now.
College – The first games were solid. I didnt see the St Johns or VCU games but both teams easily covered his teasers and picking St Johns on the road against an established program like St Marys is impressive. Taking Baylor and s illinois looks like a case of being half awake and being too lazy to look into things and taking a couple of home favorites against seemingly weak programs.
Pros – Passing judgement on these is going to be made super easy by the fact that the games have already happened and Capt Hindsight is the one evaluating the picks. With that said, I really like the OKC pick. I actually went to a site to make sure Allen hadn’t made a typo and it was OKC -6 which would have seemed more accurate to me. And obviously, Capt Hindsight is not a fan of the Clippers pick but I can say what I had said to Van yesterday. The fact that the Clippers lost (in overtime albeit) to the Pistons at home the other night should be a red light indicator that the Clippers are not playing well at all right now. Just throwing that out there.
Hopefully me being judgemental of Allen’s picks will not halt the relative avalanche of posts Allen has been putting up since getting on the site. Please scrutinize the shit out of the picks I’ll be putting up.
Thoughts
1) I do not have long term betting experience with soccer, but regardless, this week is the first time I have ever seen a soccer total goals scored line of 3.5. And it seems pretty deserved with Chelsea v Stoke City. This could honestly be Chelsea v X, Drogba looks flat out dominant at the moment. He did not even put a goal in last week (three assists) and they still scored six goals.
2) I have made two NFL bets with Louis. I like one and am anxious about the other. They are…
* Raiders win total (over 6 games) – This is actually the bet I like which should tell you something about the other bet we will talk about in a second. The Raiders have not won 6 games in ages but I like their coach, their defense and that J Russell is no longer on board. In my mind I win this bet 1/3 of the time and push it 45-50%. But the next bet…
* Chiefs to win the division (10:1) – I am The House in this bet and I flat out do not like it. The only things I hear about in this division are how many players on the Chargers are either hurt or holding out. And if they do not dominate this group, I am in trouble, because there is a whole lot of generic nothing after them in the AFC West. I figure I win this bet 80% of the time, which means I am getting a poor deal at 10:1. Week 1 will be a HUGE indicator of how this bet will go as KC opens at home against the Chargers.
3) There are three MLB future “to win World Series” bets that I like the value of. They are…
* Red Sox 25-1
* White Sox 28-1
* Giants 20-1
