Author: pat
NBA Line
There is a chnace I read the line wrong last night but I am pretty sure the opening line on Cavs/Celtics was Celts -1. The latest line is Cavs -2.5, meaning the line has moved 3.5 points in twelve hours. Let’s see what happens.
Gambling Thoughts
I’ll preface this by saying I’m not really breaking new ground here.
Other day Louis was talking to me about the idea of creating a gambling program where someone could be exposed to an extrememly high number of past games with spread knowledge in a short amount of time to make them a better sport gambler. Something akin to the idea that you become a better poker player by playing lots of hands, so internet people have an advantage because they play so many in so rapid an amount of time.
I think there is a little bit of merit in this, but limited. First of all we will throw out the idea for the moment that such a program could be created in the foreseeable future. You would need some Matrix-like thing going on where the person uploads game data into their brains at a rapid rate. But if such a program existed, the question arises, would it have the results Lou thinks it would. And to an extent I think the answer is yes.
The main problem is that Vegas essentially already has something like Lou’s hypothetical idea with those simulations they run in computers. That, after all, is often how the spread is figured, they are running advanced machines to find out what the difference in a game is likely to be. I cannot decide if Louis’ idea should be described as being (A) different from or (B) being more finely tuned than these simulations. The idea is different from the simulations in that he wants to figure out future score totals in relation to the spread instead of creating a spread itself, but at the same time, is that not just saying that he wants an outrageously accurate score indicator? In either case, the task is tough.
But Lou does have one obvious advantage, and that is that Vegas has a set of handcuffs on it, namely, the betting public. If the public thinks one way strong enough, Vegas is going to often yield to that in making a line. This is evident in setting the line itself, and in subsequent adjustments. Teams like the Lakers and Cowboys will routinely get more respect in regards to the line simply because the bookies know where the action is going to go. I was on a site the other day that noted that the Lakers over the last 10 years weren’t even close to breaking even against the spread, even though, they’ve obviously been very successful. As mentioned, the public’s influence will also transfer to line adjustments. A recent example of this was the Packers/Cards Wild Card game this year where the line opened at Cards -2.5. By kickoff of that game 80% of the betting public (Allen “three Benjamins” Gowin) was on the Packers, and the line had to be moved to Packers -2.5.
And it is here where Louis’ slim hopes lie at getting rich off his Matrix program. If Vegas strictly set spreads without the betting public in mind, Louis’ plan could not work for him, as they would be using the most in-tuned sports minds and up-to-the-minute programs and data to set the spreads. It is in Vegas’ act of covering its own ass that salvation lies for the merit in Louis’ idea, when the sports public forces Vegas to at times make a road team a favorite against a defending conference champion.
As a brief note at the end, this could encourage a group to take a game, throw a ton of money on one side to pop the line in a certain direction, and then once the line moves a decent amount, throw an absolute shit ton of money on the other side.
Rick J
I have been trying to find gambling blogs kind of like this one but I am not having too much success. With that said, I came across this guy.
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/
He is by no means funny but he seems to have a pretty good record and know what the hell he’s talking about so check him out. Rick seems to include some wall street stuff on a stock or two that he likes so watch out for that. Please leave a comment if you find a blog about sports gambling that has some humor to it. No poker blogs please.
Final Four Picks
Here are my final four picks at this moment, obviously forsaking the fact that we don’t know actual brackets yet
Syracuse
Mich St
Kentucky
Texas
Leave a comment if you want to make your own four picks and throw money on things.
Picks
I am going to start keeping a record of picks I like. They will be broken down by a variety of classifications (sport, confidence in pick, underdog, road, etc.) depending on how much effort I put into this thing. This will be Day 1
Grizzlies (-1.5) @ Detroit – Two units
Bulls (+5.5) @ Oklahoma – One unit
One bad gambling tendency is that I am a sucker for betting teams strictly with points in mind, as if the game were being played in a bubble. This ends up not giving enough credence to home (court, field, polo turf) advantage. The Grizzlies are clearly the better of the two teams in the first game, but they are pretty horrible on the road. Let’s see what happens.
NBA Action
So I have posted on this site the game where you try to guess the line. Now I am popping a big ol’ cherry and doing this for the NBA. The results could very well prove comedic. I have been watching more NBA this year than I normally do so let’s see how much of a pulse I have on things. I will be guessing the lines for Wed (1/20). Let’s see what’s up, real lines will be added in bold tomorrow when the lines are announced
Kings @ Hawks – Kings are doing well this year, better than most people would have supposed. Still, playing a very tough Hawks team in Atlanta, let’s call it Hawks -7.5 Hawks (-9.5)
Pacers @ Magic – Magic have been struggling recently. And the Lakers beat them last night with Kobe playing about as poorly as he is capable of. That should bring this line down a bit. Magic -5.5 Magic (-11.5)
Blazers @ 76ers – The 76ers are bad, Portland is a pretty mediocre road team, though. Portland -3.5 Blazers (-1)
Mavericks @ Wizards – Four people were injured in the Wizards most recent shoot around. I’ll say Mavericks -6 Mavs (-4.5)
Heat @ Bobcats – I know the Heat are playing tonight which should impact things a bit. Bobcats are AMAZING at home. Bobcats -2.5 Bobcats (-4)
Celtics @ Pistons – Celtics -8.5 Celtics (-5.5)
Grizzlies @ Hornets – I am not looking at stats, but it seems like the Grizzlies are playing really well over the last 5 weeks or so. I’ll say it’s Hornets -4 Hornets (-3)
Raptors @ Bucks – Bucks -1.5 Bucks (-2.5)
Thunder @ Timberwolves – Thunder -4 Thunder (-6.5)
Nets @ Suns – This one could get legitimately ugly. Suns -12.5 Suns (-12.5)
Jazz @ Spurs – I remember early in the season the Spurs were playing in Utah and the game was essentially a pick ’em. This will not be the case here. The Spurs are playing better than I thought they would this year and this Utah group is traditionally known as a surprisingly weak road team. Let’s say Spurs -6 Spurs (-6)
Nuggets @ Warriors – Nuggets are good, how about Nuggets -6 Nuggets (-5.5)
Bulls @ Clippers – Clippers have to be the fave here, Clips -3.5 Clips (-3.5)
The Freeroll Game, a Follow-up
So I said we were going to keep half an eye on this freeroll game thing from last week so let’s take a looksie back to Week 16. Before we do I should note that on Monday Night Football the Giants crushed the underdog Redskins putting the total for Week 15 at 6 Underdog wins, 2 double the spreads by favorites, and 8 Nothin’ Doin’s. As for Week 16…
San Diego/Tennessee – Underdog San Diego wins
Buffalo/Atlanta – Atlanta doubles spread
Kansas City/Cincinnati – Nothing
Oakland/Cleveland – Cleveland doubles spread
Seattle/Green Bay – Green Bay doubles spread
Houston/Miami – Underdog Houston wins
Jacksonville/New England – New England doubles spread
Tampa Bay/New Orleans – Underdog Tampa Bay wins
Carolina/Giants – Underdog Carolina wins
Baltimore/Pittsburgh – Nothing
St Louis/Arizona – Nothing
Detroit/San Francisco – Nothing
Jets/Indianapolis – Underdog Jets win
Denver/Philadelphia – Nothing
Dallas/Washington – Dallas doubles spread
Minnesota/Chicago – Underdog Chicago wins
WWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!! what in the name of bill parcells in going on here? 16 games were on the board. 6 underdog outright wins? 5 favorites double the spread? and the people making these lines are professionals! imagine the results if they didn’t know precisely what they were doing! lets see what i like this week.
Chicago (-3) @ Detroit
When has Detroit shown at any point during the season that they should be getting this level of respect? In my mind this line should be 7.
Giants (+9) @ Minnesota
I think the Giants will come to play and give the Vikings a decent fight. I think they would like to end the season with guns drawn.
As a side note, three games this weekend will have a solid chance of being playoff previews during the wild card. In order of sexiness
Packers/Cards
Philly/Dallas
Bengals/Jets
Another side note is that the last week is obviusly gut check time for season total bets. I’m looking at you, Atlanta.
The Freeroll Game
So recently I have been giving Van Tran some freeroll bets on sports. I am living rent free at 55 Montfern, so I’m giving the young man an opportunity to make some cash on the side. But I can’t just say “Alright, the Jets are minus 5.5, who do you like?” That would be a little too generous.
The result is The Freeroll Game. The player gets two picks from the slate of games. For those two picks, they get two selections; that an underdog will win outright in a game, or that a favored team will win by double the spread. As case in point, the San Diego/Cincinnati game yesterday had San Diego as a 6.5 favorite. If you go for this game, you are either choosing that the Bengals will win or that San Diego will win by 13 or more. Note 13 here is not a push, 13 is a win. For his two selections, Van played the roll of fan, choosing the underdog Dolphins to win, and charity case, selecting the favored Giants to double the spread tonight in Washington.
Here is how the pay works for The Freeroll Game. I offered Van two selections on his two picks. He could do separate picks at 30 dollar payouts, 0 for 0 right, 30 for 1 right, 60 for 2 right, or he could parlay the picks, 0 for 0 right, 0 for 1 right, 100 for 2 right. Van opted for the first plan picking the games separately and it is good he did since the Dolphins lost in overtime. Let’s take a look at the games and see how things shaked out in regards to The Freeroll Game.
Indy/Jax – Nothing
Saints/Dallas – Underdog Dallas wins
Atlanta/Jets – Underdog Atlanta wins
Houston/St Louis – Nothing
Cleveland/Kansas City – Underdog Cleveland wins
Miami/Tennessee – Nothing
Arizona/Detroit – Nothing
New England/Buffalo – Nothing
Cincinnati/San Diego – Nothing
Oakland/Denver – Underdog Oakland wins
Chicago/Baltimore – Baltimore doubles spread
Tampa Bay/Seattle – Underdog Seattle wins
Green Bay/Pittsburgh – Nothing
San Francisco/Philadelphia – Nothing
Minnesota/Carolina – Underdog Carolina wins
That is 6 underdogs winning outright and only one team doubling the spread as the favorite. Is this an indication of something? Is this a fluke? Is this normal? I have no idea, but it is something to keep half an eye on, and it is, The Freeroll Game.
Chop Karma
So let’s all relive a recent situation I found myself in. In my big pay league, there is a 100 dollar entry fee. The prize breakdown is 400 given to the team that finishes first during the regular season, 100 given to the team that finishes second in the playoffs, and a cool half grand given to the first place playoff team.
Going into the final week, me and another kid were the only ones who could win the regular season. By the end of the night Sunday, things were pretty close, but did not look good for me. I was leading the kid I was playing by a bit but he had Rodgers and Driver going Monday night and I only had McGahee. In the other match-up, it was a similar story, as the kid I needed to lose was only down by a few points and had Ray Rice, Flacco going. The kid he was playing had the Packer D.
At that point, Lou reviewed my predicament and said something along the lines of, “you know, I bet he would still take a chop at this point if you offered it.” I thought it over Sunday night and Monday morning decided to test the waters. I sent him a message telling him to contact me if he was interested in “some sort of chop.” At this exact moment, I now have CHOP KARMA in my favor. I know that this kid is going to get the message, and if he either ignores it, or refuses, chop karma swings dramatically in my favor. This is especially the case given the fact that he was odds-on to take the title down.
Our villain, though, is a crafty one. Apparently realizing the full implications of such a decision, he almost immediately contacts me noting his desire to work out a chop. I proposed two primary chops. 250-150 or 300-100, the winner of the reg season getting more money. I personally preferred the 300-100, but he pushed for the 250-150. Now, if I had been a prick and insisted on 300-100, chop karma would have swung 180 degrees away from the direction it had been a short while ago and slammed directly in my opponent’s favor, with him easily winning the title. Knowing this, I of course had to accept the 250-150 proposal or I would have lost in a crushing defeat. Accepting the 250-150 chop was the only chance I had that the football players I had never met on my team would score more points than the football players I had never met on my opponent’s team.
And so it came to pass. Flacco threw three interceptions (obviously all to the Packer D), and I wound up winning the regular season by four points. I hated to do this to Flacco, but I’m pretty poor at the moment and needed some money.
LINES
Arizona @ San Fran (under 44.5)
When it comes to over/unders I am a proponent of looking at what type of game style the home team likes to get involved in, and while the 49ers can get frisky with the Smith-Davis combo, I think in his heart, Singletary is a low-scoring, defensive minded type of guy.
Buffalo @ Kansas City (over 37.5)
Two weak defenses and a couple of offenses with a ton of guys who have something to prove. I definitely like the over here.
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
The problem with this line is that the Pack are like -125 or something. Felt obliged to throw a third pick in, let’s see if I can come across something better in the next couple days.
Site Name Change
Van Tran while visiting the site and viewing Lou’s most recent picks
“Lou should change the name to ‘Miracle Covers: Losing at Sports.'”
Pastability, let’s take a look at some things…
It was over the Thanksgiving holiday when I remembered one of my favored forms of NFL gambling, which is to parlay the money line on two or three heavily favored teams. Unfortunately it seems that Allen Gowin’s bookie does not really do money line bets which is a shame, but here is an idea for Sunday if you have such capabilities.
Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego
With the help of our friends at parlaycalculator.com, you are getting essentially a 2/3 return on bets (one hundred nets you 163 and change). A couple of thoughts on this.
* This may seem obvious as this is a bet centered entirely on winning the game and not covering a spread, but you want teams involved where you say to yourself, “I’m not sure on what’s going to happen, but I simply do not see X losing this game.” Going to the example of this Thanksgiving, Green Bay and Dallas looked very strong to win the game. Some may at that point may have felt like getting a better return on their money by throwing in a Giant addition, but do you really want to bank on an essentially .500 team on the road against a team with a winning record? This may wreak of hindsight but whatever. People might object here that I did not include two heavy home favorites, Minn and Atlanta, in the parlay. But the problem is I could see the Bears and/or the Bucs winning. If you don’t, throw the fuckers in, but for me, it doesn’t pass the crucial test.
* I am not a huge fan of this strategy for college games. The NFL is crazy enough, but when you add nineteen year old qbs and kickers, football can escalate to a new level of weird. Just see some of USC’s recent games in the last few years. However, if you are looking for some recommendations I would stick with proven programs like Boise State (not when they’re 40 pt favorites). Right now on television I am watching Pitt/W Va. How shocking was that a few years ago when Pitt won in West Virginia with W Va playing for the BCS championship? I would have bet my house on that money line.
Some thoughts on the lines this weekend…
I am not guaranteeing I am putting money on any of these games, just some thoughts.
Clemson and Tennessee only giving up three points to South Carolina and Kentucky respectively seems a bit outrageous to me. I might have to parlay that.
I do not have any figures in front of me but I bet there is a decent amount of unbiased money going on the Panthers against the Jets. Carolina is playing very well and 5 Ints are quickly becoming known as “The Dirty Sanchez.” But I like the Jets this week. The Jets are giving three points at home to a hot Carolina team, but the Jets have a very solid defense and Jake Delhomme is due to lay an atomic bomb this week after a month of very good football.
