Author: pat
Bets I have right meow
I don’t like to go retro when telling this site about my picks, so I will tell you what I have tonight. Two parlays, both spicy.
PARLAY NUMBER ONE
Colorado (+17) @ Oklahoma State w/ NFL Game under
PARLAY NUMBER TWO
Carolina (-3) ((-125)) w/ College game over
If I hit one of these parlays I win a little, both and I am da man. Been drinkin’ since 2 pm. Love and booze.
Van “Lucky Man” Tran – NFL Week 9
So Van dodges a bullet because the three picks yesterday were all good. That puts us up 75 fun units for yesterday, let’s try to keep things moving. For good or bad, here are the NFL plays…
Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
This is just a line that immediately stuck out to me in looking at things yesterday. It is one of those where you hear your inner voice saying, “oh hell, jacksonville is going to cover that.” Since we are hot at the moment I will trust that inner voice.
Miami (+10.5) @ New England
Now I really do not want to bet on this game, but Vegas is not making that a viable option with this line. This is just flat out too high. I know the Pats are playing very well right now but this line essentially means the Pats have to win by two touchdowns and that is a lot of points against a very solid Miami team. I do not love this bet by any means, but I feel my hand is being forced.
Detroit (+10) @ Seattle
I just do not see the Lions doing too much offensively in this game. Stafford on the road against a veteran team and hostile crowd makes me see something like 27-10 Seattle.
College Football Picks
So Van Tran got me out of bed this morning to talk college football gambling. And of course this led me to force myself to look at lines and now I am putting 25 “fun units” (dollars) on 3 games. If I lose I curse Van Tran for dragging me out of bed. If I win, I’ll let him off with a warning. The picks are
Central Florida (+34.5) @ Oklahoma
Central Florida is a good program. Their only three losses are to Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Miami, with two of those on the road. Back in Vegas last year I would have taken UCF and to cover myself a bit I would have taken the over which is 49.5. That way the only way you lose both is if Ok wins like 42-0.
Texas A&M @ Colorado (over 57)
I like this because the game is at Colorado, which theoretically means they will be dictating the pace a bit and they have a tendency to be involved in high scoring affairs. And A&M can put up numbers themselves.
LSU @ Alabama (-7.5)
Only reason I am putting money on this is because it is the game of the week and it will be give me something to entertain myself with while working at City Sports this afternoon.
NFL to follow tomorrow…
Will you complete my teaser?
So I have decided that I want to bet the under on the South Carolina/Tennessee game. Its around 41 I think. But I want to tease it and I really do not like any college games too much so I am going to do the game I played two weeks ago where I try to guess the spread on games. The game where the biggest disparity exists will become Part B for my teaser. This is prefaced, though, where if i forget or didn’t hear about an injury or something and that affects the line I’ll probably back out of that pick and go with another game. As always, lines provided by pinnaclesports.com Real line in bold
Houston @ Buffalo
Right off the bat a game where an injury has major implications. Johnson is supposedly playing, though. Im going to make this line Houston -.5 even though I know that line does not happen. Houston minus 3.5
Browns @ Bears
Browns still a train wreck. Bears minus 10 Bears minus 13
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Cowboys looked good last week. Cowboys minus 7.5 Dallas minus 9.5
Rams @ Lions
Wow and yuck. wuck. Lions minus 3 Lions minus 4
49ers @ Colts
Not sure how Vegas is feeling with the Alex Smith situation, but Colts minus 11 sounds about right. Indy minus 12.5
Dolphins @ Jets
Jets minus 3. This line has to be either 3 or 3.5 Jets minus 3.5
Giants @ Eagles
Eagles minus 3.5, pretty much the same logic as the Jets game. Division rivals = home team field goal favorite in most cases. Giants minus 1
Broncos @ Ravens
How much respect is Vegas going to give the Denver 6-0? That’s the question here. Ravens minus 1 Ravens miuns 3.5
Jags @ Titans
Now going back a few games you just heard me say that biz about division rivals and field goals and blah blah. But this game has to be an exception in my eyes. Jags minus 1.5 Titans minus 3
Raiders @ Chargers
Oakland played well week 1 in this game. Still, this has to be around San Diego minus 10 San Diego minus 16.5
Panthers @ Cardinals
As I was starting this blog I saw Delhomme is starting this week. Cardinal D is looking like a legitimate fantasy option. Cardinals minus 8 Cardinals minus 10
Vikings @ Packers.
Didn’t see the Steeler game last week but it sounded like Favre was gun slinging again at the end. Packers minus 3 Pack minus 3
Falcons @ Saints
The Falcons have been playing pretty suspect the last couple of weeks. Might have to bet this game regardless if the line is right. Saints minus 7.5 Saints minus 10.5
So, according to this I have to bet on Oakland. I don’t love it, but it’s not that horrible. The tease will make the Raiders more than a three touchdown underdog. If they can score two touchdowns against a San Diego defense that has been far from “lights out” this year that should pretty much get things done. Let’s get back on the Oakland express one more week.
Tennis Gambling
Story about how a surge of gambling went on during a WTA event when microphones picked up a father telling his 6th ranked daughter to retire due to injury. There was commotion as gamblers used the info to bet live and heavily on the other girl, with many calling this unethical. Random commenter on espn.com and possible future blogger on miraclecovers.com summed things up nicely
“I don’t want to live in a world where I can’t place bets online for overseas women’s tennis.”
Truer words rarely spoken. The girl retired when leading 7-5, 5-0, miracle cover, with the aid of technology.
Things you should probably like in Week 7
I think you have to like any situation right now where Minnesota is getting points, especially more than three. On the other side, before the season started I would have said there was no way the Vikings would win over 11 games (in fact I bet on that) and there was hardly a chance the Steelers would win less than 10. In fact, looking at their schedule right now, it is mind-blowing how many games the Steelers may lose this year. They have the softest schedule possible for a team defending. If Minnesota wins, though, both of those could happen.
You pretty much have to like any team getting more than a field goal against the Jets right now, and all jokes aside, Oakland is just such a team. I apparently have jumped the Oakland bandwagon. They are the only team of the group I picked last week that covered, let’s follow this ride and see what happens.
In the same vein, you have to like any team getting more than 5 against the Panthers this year, cue Buffalo. Buffalo has a solid defense, Terrell Owens, and Jake Delhomme.
And you have to like the Saints when they are anything less than a touchdown favorite, see minus six at Miami. I know Miami will probably hold the ball for 42 minutes, but the Saints look like world beaters at the moment.
So, for Week 7, Minnesota – Oakland – Buffalo – New Orleans
Extra note MNF – Have to like Philly, even at minus 7.
And a thought, why do the Chiefs always have 1 o’clock kick offs? They are in the AFC West you know? I am pretty sure looking at their schedule they have ZERO home games this year starting after 1:15 eastern.
Week 6
So a favorite technique of mine last year in figuring what team to bet on would be to see the game, guess the line, view the Vegas line, and then take the games where the biggest disparity exists. Let’s do it and see how this goes. Actual line will be put in bold using pinnaclesports.
Detroit @ Green Bay
I think the Packers are due for a big game from the offense, let’s put this line at Pack minus 9. (GB -13)
Kansas City @ Washington
Did not see either team play this week or even a single highlight. Both tems are bad, Washington minus 4. Wash (-6.5)
Houston @ Cincinnati
How about them Bengals. Cincy minus 4.5 Cinc (-4)
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
There is every chance that the line on this will end up lower than the number of INTs, I’ll say TB minus 1 (Car -3)
Cleveland @ Pitt
Is Polamalu back? I think that he more than any other defensive player affects the line on a game. Let’s say the line is Pitt minus 11 Pitt (-14)
Giants @ New Orleans
Whether it turns out that way who knows but at the moment this is the game of the year, and I won’t see a moment of it while at work at City Sports. Bummer. Giants minus 1.5 Saints (-3)
Baltimore @ Minnesota
Very tough game. Flacco looked not too hot last week and Minnesota’s D is legitimate. Minn minus 3.5 Minn (-3)
St Louis @ Jax
It is a testament to how awful Lou’s bet earlier in the year on Rams winning the NFC West was when a team that lost 41-0 last week will be minus 8.5 this week Jax (-10)
Arizona @ Seattle
Seattle minus 2, literally any possible score combination at the end of this game cannot be considered surprising. Sea (-3)
Phil @ Oak
Only the second road favorite of the week, let’s call it Phil minus 9 (Phil -14)
Buffalo @ Jets
Jets minus 5 No line yet
Tennessee @ New England
New England minus 6.5 NE (-9.5)
Chicago @ Atlanta
Atlanta minus 3.5 Atl (-3)
Denver @ San Diego
Sexy little match up. San Diego minus 2.5 SD (-4)
So, what does this tell us? This week my picks are Detroit, Tampa, Giants, and Oakland. Pretty nauseating group outside of the Giants (who are playing arguably the hottest team in the league right now). Let’s see how things go.
Week Four
Going to stroll though my picks…
Oakland (+9.5) @ Houston
Houston will win this game. I think that is about a 95% certainty. I am pretty sure one of the reasons the line on this has to be 9.5 at minimum is because it gets teased down to a field goal if otherwise, and Houston must win this game.
Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville
Very tough game. Who the hell knows.
Baltimore (+1) @ New England
I did not see one moment of the Atl/NE game which I really wish I did to be commenting on/picking this game. With that said the Patriots looked bad in the Jets game and horrific for the Bills game while I have been nothing but floored by the Ravens thus far.
Bengals (5.5) @ Browns
Imagine this line at the beginning of the season if this was a Week 1 game. I say it’s the exact opposite with the Browns favored by 6 or so. At the moment, though, Cleveland looks like a train wreck.
Giants (-9) @ KC
Let’s see how many road favorites I take this week. I really don’t see Cassel doing much of anything in this game and to beat the Giants, or even to stay competitive you need a legit qb to handle the rush. If this game was in NY the spread may be plus 2 tds. At any rate, this is your two team teaser for the early games, bringing the giants and texans down to about field goal favorites.
Lions (+10) @ Chicago
In my opinion this spread line is at least two points off, probably 2.5.
Tampa Bay (+7) @ Washington
Both of these teams seem absolutely horrible at this point. I could see this as being the Redskin game that gets highlighted in their 2009 season video, beating up on a really awful Tampa team at home.
Seahawks (+10.5) @ Colts
Look for Peyton to have a huge day.
Jets (+7) @ Saints
No genuine confidence in Mark Sanchez at this point, but I can see the Jets D keeping Breeze from exploding all over the field. Do not see the Jets winning, but losing by between 4-8.
Bills (+1) @ Miami
The Bill running back situation is going to be a clusterfuck as they try to get Lynch back in the swing. I know Pennington is out but I don’t see that as being the worst thing in the world as it will force the Dolphins to open up the ground game which seems their strong suit anyway. Dolphins hit a field goal with 50 seconds to play to make it 24-20.
Rams (+9.5) @ Niners
Niners win by two scores easy.
Dallas (-3) @ Denver
If this game were to be played at any time after Thanksgiving I would be all over Denver. But it aint, so Tony gets the benefit of the doubt.
San Diego (+6.5) @ Pitt
I could see the Chargers winning this game, I could not see the Steelers winning this game by +14. Therefore, Chargers is the pick.
Green Bay (+3.5) @ Vikings
I really like Green Bay in this game, especially with points. Couldn’t you see Rodger’s going down the field first possession and throwing a 26 yard strike to Driver or Jennings? If that happens you are well on your way to a non-miraculous cover.
Blogger #3 on board
I have been reading the site and am impressed with the level of insight Sean and Lou bring in justifying their gambling picks. I simply do not have the level of knowledge at this point in teams and players, but I will note some of the bets I have made, undoubtedly commenting on them in future posts.
BET WHERE I AM THE HOUSE
Rams 12-1 win NFC west. I bet 12 bucks on this so I have to pay out 144 to Louis if they win the division.
HEADS UP BETS
Jets win total over 7 (20 bucks with Van Tran), I got this at straight even money, posted at -155 or so most places
Atlanta win total over 8.5 (20 bucks with Louis). This reeks of sucker bet on my part
Colt win total over 9 (15 with Sean), this is posted at 9.5 or even 10 in most places. Just can’t see the Colts going .500
Win total Dolphins vs Giants (20 bucks with VT) This is a bad bet for Van, he’s only making it because they are our respective favorite teams. Still never know.
Bengals win total under 7 (Case of beer with Karna). Again, this is a case of a short foreigner thinking with his heart and not his head. Bengals winning 8 is not impossible, but come on.
Pretty sure I made another bet with Van but I can’t think of it right now.
qt8v3ka4rd
