“If we handle the ball like that, (Ohio State) can pick the score,” Self said. “Let’s just call it like it is. They will pick the score in our own building if we handle the ball like that…It will be a jailbreak if we turn the ball over against Ohio State. They won’t just be running out and scoring two points. They will be making plays that are ESPN top-10 plays.”  Quote ESPN college basketball blog.

There is no line yet.

UPDATE

Line: Ohio St (-3) @ Kansas.  I know nothing about college basketball at this moment in 2011, but I will be taking Ohio St here.  Let’s see what happens. 

Follow up dap on that game.  A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read.  In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU.  To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there.  Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th.  I quote…

“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.”  Brilliant.

Boxing.  I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite?  So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog.  Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by.  This has to have gambling implications.

I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there.  But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league.  I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league.  3 picks a week.  With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3.  How ugly are those picks?

• Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
• Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
• Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
• Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
• Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
• Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41

We had created two groups.  Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent.  The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number.  Both groups went 2-1 ATS.  Conclusion – Nothing to really report.  Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated.  Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.

• Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
• Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
• Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
• Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
• Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
• Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)

Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents.  Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations.  Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public?  If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved.  As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things.  I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.

• It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
• There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
• LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
• Vegas is not run by idiots.  They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?”  Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause

With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…

Pick : LSU +4.5

This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game.  Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat.  If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced.  If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one.  So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.

Pick : Cal -3

Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

• Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September.  Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
• In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.”  Granderson was an OK guy.  Wrong.
• In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.”  Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.

At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.

Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record.  Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty.  I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros.  Amazing stuff.

Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.”  I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS.  If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.

NFC

South
New Orleans Saints 10 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
Carolina Panthers 4.5

North
Green Bay Packers 11.5
Chicago Bears 9.5
Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Minnesota Vikings6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Giants 9.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Dallas Cowboys 9 (Over flat, Under -120)
Philadelphia Eagles 10 (Over -120, Under flat)
Washington Redskins 6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

West
Seattle Seahawks 7 (Over flat, Under -120)
St. Louis Rams 7 (Over -120, Under flat)
San Francisco 49ers 8 (Over -120, Under flat)
Arizona Cardinals 6 (Over -120, Under flat)

AFC

South
Indianapolis Colts 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
Houston Texans 8 (Over -115, Under -105)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 (Over flat, Under -120)
Baltimore Ravens 11
Cleveland Browns 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Jets 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
New England Patriots 11.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Buffalo Bills 5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Miami Dolphins 8 (Over -105, Under -115)

West
Denver Broncos 6 (Over flat, Under -120)
San Diego Chargers 10
Oakland Raiders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 8 (Over flat, Under -120)

Early leans: Atlanta, NY Giants, Bungles UNDER Jacksonville, Arizona OVER. Arizona is contingent on them getting an actual living breathing QB upon which the line would revise upwards at least one win so I’d be comfortable making a small bet now. The do get six games versus the NFC West. Atlanta opens @CHI, PHI, @TB @SEA, GB after which they’ll be doing extremely well to be 3-2. No idea how this team is supposed to win 11 games.

Divisions: New Orleans EVEN, Rams +245, Oakland +425. The Niners are somehow a -125 favorite to win the NFC West over on Bookmaker. I’d like to be the house on that as they look to be the same mediocre team as the last couple of seasons. The Rams are a receiver and a safety away from being the division favorite. Be careful with the Ram and Lion OVERS (7 & 7.5). Depth is always an issue in the NFL and health is a skill. Some 15% of a team’s roster will end up on IR before the season ends and while there’s some luck involved in which players end up hurt, teams with depth like the Packers and Patriots are much better suited to deal with the inevitable injuries which is a partial reason for their league high totals. Given some of the players St. Louis and Detroit were trotting out on the field last year, I’m skeptical they’ll be able to build enough sustained depth. The overs or division bets aren’t necessarily poor bets, but they are riskier.

Lastly, Eli Manning needs to prep for plays like the one embedded below since the Giants cut three offensive linemen yesterday. Not sure who they are going to bring in, but they should hope to play better than this:

• Man U : 81.5
• Chelsea : 77.5 (over -130)
• Man City : 74.5 (over -130)
• Arsenal : 68.5 (over -138)
• Tottenham : 59.5 (over -121)
• Liverpool : 67.5 (over -123)
• Everton : 55.5 (under -127)
• Fulham : 48.5
• Aston Villa : 53.5 (under -150)
• Sunderland : 47.5
• West Bromwich : 45.5
• Newcastle : 46.5
• Stoke City : 50.5 (under -155)
• Bolton : 44.5
• Blackburn : 37.5 (over -121)
• Wigan : 36.5 (over -130)
• Wolverhampton : 41.5
• Norwich City : 35.5
• Swansea City : 32.5          And last but certainly not least for TK
• QPR : 38.5

This means that if the season were to play out as the bookies expect, TK’s lads would stay up with the Big Boys.  As for Wigan…sorry DaGow.  We shall see.  More to come on this…

• 20 Units on Arizona/Pitt over 7.5 +104
• 17 Units on Astros +107
• 22 Units on Oakland +102

Current Unit Count : 837.76

“Whaaaaaat’s the deal with that?”  J Seinfeld

If you read Lou’s take in the most recent post, you may get on him for not specifically answering the question, instead talking about the only times he finds it worth while to bet the RRL.  But by pointing out that there are so few times when RRL is worth betting on, Lou is at least partially answering the question, expressing his opinion that there is little to no advantage in these lines; in not so many words, the idea these lines “are much shakier business for The House” is largely garbagely.

I am not entirely convinced on this.  It’s not that I think there is real crazy value here, but something is weird.  So I am continuing to try to figure stuff out as I write this.  If you google “reverse run line,” these recent miraclecovers posts come up on the first page of links which should be a big indicator of how rare RRLs are.

Had 7 total bets the last time out, hitting the first 2 and losing the next 5, including all 4 Reverse Run Line bets.  How great is that.  897.76 is where I stand now.  Let’s go with…

• 16 Units on Cleveland -150
• 26 Units on Mets +153
• 18 Units on Seattle/Chicago under 8 +103

Would not be shocked if I came back for some RRL action later…

For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows:

Braves (Jurrjens) -120
Pirates (Morton) +113

The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is:
Braves -1.5 +146
Pirates +1.5 -158

Lastly, the Reverse (or Alternate) Run Line is:
Braves +1.5 -290
Pirates -1.5 +256

The two non-degenerate reasons for using the reverse run line are as follows:

1) Suspected (or known) injury to a starting pitcher

Phil Hughes is the classic and most recent example here. After all of the reports of Hughes’ velocity being down as well as being crushed by the Tigers in his first start, assuming you wanted to bet against Hughes in his next start, you may as well use the reverse run line (assuming the Yankees were still favored with him starting) as you can receive a much larger return. We are assuming here that an injured pitcher is much less likely to keep a game competitive and as such, the likelihood of a one-run game is diminished.

Of course, should you know for certain that said pitcher is injured and starting anyway (Hughes is probbably the closest one can get without legitimate inside knowledge) this is certainly the way to go.

A lesser version of this system would use this to bet against pitchers with inordinately high pitch counts in their previous start(s) again assuming those pitchers were still favored overall. There doesn’t seem to be much sense in laying lots of juice for a team to not lose by 2+ runs and in any case, there’s approximately zero money to be made betting on large favorites in MLB.

2) Overly favorable matchups

At the start of the year, Justin Masterson and Alexei Ogando for Cleveland and Texas respectively were considered good swingmen with established strengths and weaknesses that would likely get exposed as a regular starter. When given a particularly favorable matchup, pitchers such as these can be a good play sometimes as significant underdogs. This can also extend to pitchers back from injury, or recently called up from the minors. There’s little to no reason however, that making a game a play under the normal moneyline should by default extend to taking a game at a reverse run line instead.

Roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by one run so that’s the primary reason to not use these. Of those 30% of games, roughly 40% go to the underdog and 60% break to the favorite. Since there aren’t any of these that offer +1.5 +2xx, most people will be best served by leaving these alone minus the Hughes-like exceptions.

Me = the mouse

Pinnacle = scientist

Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me

Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?

This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet.  They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section.  Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House?  This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this.  While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?”  I like where all of this is headed.

• 20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
• 17 Units On Red Sox -135
• 19 Units on Tampa Bay +150

Only one winner yesterday.  946.97 is where things stand

UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle.  I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay.  You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established.  And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…

• 15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
• 12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
• 33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
• 9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249

• 22 Units on Red Sox -118
• 17 Units on White Sox +142
• 14 Units on Mariners -102

-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24

• 20 Units on Mariners -120
• 16 Units on Mets +161
• 14 Units on A’s +137

Net of 986.91.  All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.