Miracle Covers

Two Touchy Home Favorites

We are going to look at a very specific group here, games where the home team is essentially a 2 TD favorite.  Everyone is playing opponents from their own conference.

• Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
• Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
• Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
• Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
• Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
• Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)

Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents.  Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations.  Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public?  If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved.  As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things.  I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.

Game of the Year

The opening line on LSU/Alabama is ‘Bama -4.5.  I made a somewhat vague promise to myself that if I was more than a point off in either direction on this line I would bet the game so it looks like I am taking LSU.  Couple of boring points about the line…

• It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
• There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
• LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
• Vegas is not run by idiots.  They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?”  Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause

With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…

Pick : LSU +4.5

Gotta Win Game

Sometimes you bet a team simply because they are in a game they essentially have to win or their season is in the crapper.  Last week this could be seen in the NFL in the Eagles/Redskins game where if Philly loses they go to 1-5 and for all intents and purposes they are done.

This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game.  Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat.  If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced.  If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one.  So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.

Pick : Cal -3

Game of the Year

Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama.  Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are.  If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.

Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

Game of the Year

The annual college football apocalypse game this year looks to be LSU vs. Alabama on Nov 5th.  Gonna keep a running tab on the Tigers and Tide throughout October to see where the line of the game would be were the game to be held at that moment.  There is every chance that my guess will not budge from this starting point (a pretty dull but realistic thought), but what the hell, let’s see if this is interesting.

Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

College Football Site Recommendation

For anyone looking to be humbled on the subject of college football I would encourage you to stumble upon the site “Pre-Snap Read”  It is beyond impressively run by Paul Myerberg who it seems is a college football guru for the New York Times.  I am still uncertain how much of his material is subscribed out from freelancers or colleagues.  If the answer is little to none I am wowed, definitely worth a check-out.

For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.”  I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS.  If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.