Author: pat
Game of the Year
Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama. Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are. If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.
Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
Pat’s MLB Over/Unders – A Recap
Got absolutely hammered on this stuff. I just went to write Over/Unders in the Subject Header and I hit the shift button making it Over?Unders which pretty much sums up my year. Couple notes on my picks.
- Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September. Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
- In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.” Granderson was an OK guy. Wrong.
- In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.” Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.
At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.
Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record. Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty. I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros. Amazing stuff.
Game of the Year
The annual college football apocalypse game this year looks to be LSU vs. Alabama on Nov 5th. Gonna keep a running tab on the Tigers and Tide throughout October to see where the line of the game would be were the game to be held at that moment. There is every chance that my guess will not budge from this starting point (a pretty dull but realistic thought), but what the hell, let’s see if this is interesting.
Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
College Football Site Recommendation
For anyone looking to be humbled on the subject of college football I would encourage you to stumble upon the site “Pre-Snap Read” It is beyond impressively run by Paul Myerberg who it seems is a college football guru for the New York Times. I am still uncertain how much of his material is subscribed out from freelancers or colleagues. If the answer is little to none I am wowed, definitely worth a check-out.
For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.” I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS. If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.
Two Hundo Posts on Miraclecovers
And #200 is about…soccer, a game that has been slowly sucking me in over the last couple years. Over/under Premier League point totals are as follows. I will point out when a line is heavily weighted.
- Man U : 81.5
- Chelsea : 77.5 (over -130)
- Man City : 74.5 (over -130)
- Arsenal : 68.5 (over -138)
- Tottenham : 59.5 (over -121)
- Liverpool : 67.5 (over -123)
- Everton : 55.5 (under -127)
- Fulham : 48.5
- Aston Villa : 53.5 (under -150)
- Sunderland : 47.5
- West Bromwich : 45.5
- Newcastle : 46.5
- Stoke City : 50.5 (under -155)
- Bolton : 44.5
- Blackburn : 37.5 (over -121)
- Wigan : 36.5 (over -130)
- Wolverhampton : 41.5
- Norwich City : 35.5
- Swansea City : 32.5 And last but certainly not least for TK
- QPR : 38.5
This means that if the season were to play out as the bookies expect, TK’s lads would stay up with the Big Boys. As for Wigan…sorry DaGow. We shall see. More to come on this…
Baseball Bets
When Lou signed on to be my bookie a few months ago, this was probably the crap he was envisioning. I think since the inception of this ‘Baseball Bets’ business I have had one winning day. Normally I make 3 or 4 picks and get 2 or 3 wrong. Good thing no actual money has been harmed in the production of this segment. Let’s see what’s going on after an 0-3 effort yesterday…
- 20 Units on Arizona/Pitt over 7.5 +104
- 17 Units on Astros +107
- 22 Units on Oakland +102
Current Unit Count : 837.76
Baseball Bets
Asked the question in my last post why pinnacle takes so long to put reverse run lines up on its MLB betting page. It is round about 8AM EST and you could theoretically put down a bet as to who will strike out more guys in the first inning, D Lowe (+113) or Ricky Nolasco (-132) in the Braves/Marlins game. But you cannot bet the reverse run line.
“Whaaaaaat’s the deal with that?” J Seinfeld
If you read Lou’s take in the most recent post, you may get on him for not specifically answering the question, instead talking about the only times he finds it worth while to bet the RRL. But by pointing out that there are so few times when RRL is worth betting on, Lou is at least partially answering the question, expressing his opinion that there is little to no advantage in these lines; in not so many words, the idea these lines “are much shakier business for The House” is largely garbagely.
I am not entirely convinced on this. It’s not that I think there is real crazy value here, but something is weird. So I am continuing to try to figure stuff out as I write this. If you google “reverse run line,” these recent miraclecovers posts come up on the first page of links which should be a big indicator of how rare RRLs are.
Had 7 total bets the last time out, hitting the first 2 and losing the next 5, including all 4 Reverse Run Line bets. How great is that. 897.76 is where I stand now. Let’s go with…
- 16 Units on Cleveland -150
- 26 Units on Mets +153
- 18 Units on Seattle/Chicago under 8 +103
Would not be shocked if I came back for some RRL action later…
Reverse Run Lines – Baseball Bets
I’m looking to point out that pinnacle only has run lines up for favorites on their primary MLB Bet page. This was a little trippy fact for me to clue-in on as it highlights how sneaky odds can be. If you were making a list of People with Exceptional Observational Skills, I would not be among the leaders. Makes me feel a bit like
Me = the mouse
Pinnacle = scientist
Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me
Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?
This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet. They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section. Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House? This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this. While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?” I like where all of this is headed.
- 20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
- 17 Units On Red Sox -135
- 19 Units on Tampa Bay +150
Only one winner yesterday. 946.97 is where things stand
UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle. I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay. You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established. And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…
- 15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
- 12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
- 33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
- 9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249
Baseball Bets
This series of articles is growing decidedly boring. Something like this is really interesting if the picks end up being 90% right or 95% wrong, all I’m doing is slowly pissing away fake money. Dullllllllllll. I’ll try to get more imaginative or scrap this idea, but until then.
- 22 Units on Red Sox -118
- 17 Units on White Sox +142
- 14 Units on Mariners -102
-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24
Baseball Bets
Net of -6.33 last entry. Slowly but surely losing money to The House, just the way God intends it. Let’s go with…
- 20 Units on Mariners -120
- 16 Units on Mets +161
- 14 Units on A’s +137
Net of 986.91. All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.
