Author: pat
Maxim Game
I am going to post whenever I see a game where I feel there was a potential precedent set at some point. They will be called Maxim games. The Maxim scenario here involves…
Team A is a very strong team playing at home. Team B is their even more talented opponent. Team B is so strong that Vegas puts them as 5 point favorites despite playing on the road against a very, very good team. The result of the game…Team B beats the hell out of Team A, absolutely destroys them. The game we are concerned with, is the very next week…
Team A then goes on the road to a play a fairly weak Team C. Team C is not horrible but they are definitely mediocre. Vegas makes Team A a 6 pt favorite. The result of the game…Team C beats the hell out of Team A.
Team A was the University of Utah over the last couple weeks. Were they so dejected by their late season home loss to TCU that they had little chance against Notre Dame on the road? Something to keep an eye on. I’ll keep a look out for relevant examples. Points of interest, college not pro game, at #5 Utah had chance to win out and play in huge bowl game
Now this is What I am Talking About
Good work, Allen. I don’t mean on the picks, but on getting crap down on the site. Any outsider reading Allen’s posts may be potentially blown away by the in-depth knowledge Allen has for such a seemingly random team as William and Mary. He refers to them multiple times as “The Tribe.” Did anyone else have to google search “Tribe college basketball” to figure out who the hell he was talking about? Allen throws “Tribe” into the post like it’s the equivalent of “Orangemen,” or “Lady Vols.” For those not in the know I am pretty sure Allen’s father went to William and Mary so keep half a thought on that when reading future posts. Whenever Allen casually drops “Tribe” references into the conversation in the same tone as “Blue Devils,” now you know why.
Judging Allen’s picks. I’m not going to do this often, but I feel like doing this now.
College – The first games were solid. I didnt see the St Johns or VCU games but both teams easily covered his teasers and picking St Johns on the road against an established program like St Marys is impressive. Taking Baylor and s illinois looks like a case of being half awake and being too lazy to look into things and taking a couple of home favorites against seemingly weak programs.
Pros – Passing judgement on these is going to be made super easy by the fact that the games have already happened and Capt Hindsight is the one evaluating the picks. With that said, I really like the OKC pick. I actually went to a site to make sure Allen hadn’t made a typo and it was OKC -6 which would have seemed more accurate to me. And obviously, Capt Hindsight is not a fan of the Clippers pick but I can say what I had said to Van yesterday. The fact that the Clippers lost (in overtime albeit) to the Pistons at home the other night should be a red light indicator that the Clippers are not playing well at all right now. Just throwing that out there.
Hopefully me being judgemental of Allen’s picks will not halt the relative avalanche of posts Allen has been putting up since getting on the site. Please scrutinize the shit out of the picks I’ll be putting up.
Thoughts
1) I do not have long term betting experience with soccer, but regardless, this week is the first time I have ever seen a soccer total goals scored line of 3.5. And it seems pretty deserved with Chelsea v Stoke City. This could honestly be Chelsea v X, Drogba looks flat out dominant at the moment. He did not even put a goal in last week (three assists) and they still scored six goals.
2) I have made two NFL bets with Louis. I like one and am anxious about the other. They are…
* Raiders win total (over 6 games) – This is actually the bet I like which should tell you something about the other bet we will talk about in a second. The Raiders have not won 6 games in ages but I like their coach, their defense and that J Russell is no longer on board. In my mind I win this bet 1/3 of the time and push it 45-50%. But the next bet…
* Chiefs to win the division (10:1) – I am The House in this bet and I flat out do not like it. The only things I hear about in this division are how many players on the Chargers are either hurt or holding out. And if they do not dominate this group, I am in trouble, because there is a whole lot of generic nothing after them in the AFC West. I figure I win this bet 80% of the time, which means I am getting a poor deal at 10:1. Week 1 will be a HUGE indicator of how this bet will go as KC opens at home against the Chargers.
3) There are three MLB future “to win World Series” bets that I like the value of. They are…
* Red Sox 25-1
* White Sox 28-1
* Giants 20-1
World Cup Follow-Up
I had said i would follow up on the last round of World Cup picks I had, and success was mine. If I had been betting One hundred dollars as one unit I finished up 747 bucks.
One Non-Soccer Pick
SF Giants @ Houston Astros (+126) – Two Units
Oswalt has been much better recently, not that he has really been bad at any point. And the Giants have been struggling.
World Cup
If you bet money based on my World Cup picks last week, whoops. Made five bets and the best result I had was a push. If I had been betting One Hundo a pop on those picks I would be down a smooth 4 bills at this moment. So let’s try to win it back! And here’s how were going to do it…
Uruguay (+296) v Mexico – Two Units
Uruguay v Mexico (Draw -108) – Two Units
As has been analyzed by many including Louis, a draw puts both sides through, thus making it a very possible outcome. But a win is very beneficial. I am taking Uruguay based on the idea that I don’t like them more but dislike them less than Mexico.
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 2 and 2.5 +109) – Two Units
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 1.5 -214) – Three Units
Here is my thinking. Nigeria is going to have to win in order to have a chance to advance, so they are going to have to play aggressive. And if they do score, the onus than goes on Korea to score or they are going to be gone. The only way Korea can play completely defensive is if the game is 0-0 at the half and even that plan goes out the window if Greece is scoring against Argentina. Let’s see what happens.
World Cup Action
Let’s take a look at some upcoming games over today and tomorrow. I will be betting units and keeping track of my payoff/money lost in relation to the lines. Will I finish up money?
France v. Mexico – Draw +215 – One Unit
A couple of teams with not a whole lot going on these days. Both seem very unspectacular. I am betting on 1-1 or 0-0. So, with that in mind…
France v. Mexico – Under -118 – One Unit
And then…the chalk
Germany v. Serbia – Germany -140 – Two Units
USA v. Slovenia – USA +120 – One Unit
England v. Algeria – England -344 – Two Units
These picks are about as imaginative as a turd, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. England is vastly superior to Algeria, the US cannot lose the game, and Germany scored four fucking goals in their first game. How the hell do you bet against any of these teams?? 2-0 in all three games.
Marathon Monday – A Bettor’s Guide to the Action
Marathon Monday is less than two weeks away. Essentially everyone who reads this site knows that I have a substantial amount of money riding on my performance this year. I have given Bones and DaGow 13:1 odds that I will break the four hour mark this year, at 50 and 20 bucks respectively. Intense stuff. In addition to that I have a couple of 50 dollar straight up bets out there based on beating four hours and a pub crawl bet with a girl whose also running. With all that in mind, here is the odds breakdown.
WILL PAT D BREAK FOUR HOURS:
Yes : -200
No : +200
For anyone not fluent in gamblese, -200 means that the odds are 1:2 that something will happen, you bet two dollars to win one. +200 means the odds are 2:1, you bet one dollar to win two. The reason I am making myself a favorite is because I just have so much damn money bet on myself. If I was running this for fun it would probably be just as likely that I would be drinking booze halfway through the race. With that in mind…
Will Pat D Run the Entire Marathon
Yes : -500
No : +500
I have entered the Boston Marathon twice, finishing it once (4 hrs, 30 mins) and dropping out after 17 miles the second time. Again, this line would be a lot different if I didn’t have a boatload on the line.
Over/Under Water or Sports Drinks During Race : 11.5
I honestly have never kept track of this in the past but I am guessing this sounds about right. As a guide, the absolute minimum I could see on drinks would be like 8 or 9.
Will Pat D Beat the Random Girl Mentioned Above Who You Have Never Met (Updated)
Yes : Even Money (Updated Line)
No : Even Money (Updated Line)
You know you want to bet on this, you know you are tempted to throw five dollars on or against a girl you have never met. As a guide, she is in her mid-20s in good condition. I am almost 100% positive she has never run a marathon before, and I currently have an email out to her asking what time she expects to run the race in. I may update the line accordingly when a response gets back, but this is the line at this moment.
UPDATE
Originally, this line was me -250, and the girl +250. However, I received this email response back from her when I asked about time…
I’m shooting for 3:40, but will probably be more like 3:45ish. What about u?????
CRIPES! This girl means business. First of all, she has her expected time nailed down to a five minute window, and on top of that she pops out with FIVE IN YOUR FACE QUESTION MARKS right back in my grill asking me what time I expected. I was even tempted to make her a slight favorite at this point but I do hold one slight advantage over her and that’s that I have run the race before. But goodness.
SECOND UPDATE
Follow up e-mail from Corinne
I ran in 2007 in 4:16
Oh Billy!
Will the Sox Game Still be Going On as I pass Fenway
Yes : Even Money
No : Even Money
Opening pitch at the game is scheduled for 11:05 AM. I will hit the starting line somewhere around 10:35 AM. You do your own math. Note : If I drop out, “No” wins.
Will I Ejaculate From Now Until the Marathon
Yes : +500
No : -500
You will notice that for all these lines I have excluded juice from the action.
That’s about all I got for plays at the moment. If any other good ones pop into people’s minds feel free to make additions.
Congrats to Louis
Louis raped Vegas and myself by taking Duke at 15-1, 10-1 and 9-1 (with me) to win the National Championship at different stages before the tournament started. I would never have placed any of those bets, kudos to Louis.
MLB – Over/Unders
Louis and I have bet a pub crawl, and it should be a pretty good one considering it’s based on an entire season for a whole shitload of teams, on mlb over/unders for the season. You rank team totals on confidence from 1-10. Let’s see what I like.
TEN POINT PICK – SF Giants over 82.5
I honestly feel that I have to be missing something here. San Fran won like 88 games last year, got a year of experience for a young, outrageously talented pitching staff, added some pop in my opinion with DeRosa and forever-undervalued Aubrey Huff, and the over/under is 82.5?
NINE POINT PICK – Nationals under 72
This really should not even count, it has to be considered essentially automatic, Washington had 59 wins last year. The under is -136, but that does not matter in this contest.
EIGHT POINT PICK – Dodgers over 84
Very, very good lineup.
SEVEN POINT PICK – Yankees over 95.5
I know the AL East is a bear, but…I’m trying to think of an analogy of what the Yankees are if the East is a bear. The mighty claw, the powerful jaws? The Yankees are the “Big Foot’s Dick” of the Al East. They easily won 100 games last year with A-Rod out and suspect pitching at times, especially early on. I would have this line at 97.5.
SIX POINT PICK – Indians under 75.5
Another number that confuses me, this is asking the Indians to win 11 more games this year and D Masterson is their third pitcher, and the Lou Marson is their starting catcher right now.
FIVE POINT PICK – Atlanta over 85.5
I really am not crazy about the Braves pitching staff, but their lineup is very solid and they are playing in a far from ruthless division. Wagner as a closer is probably going to work out well.
FOUR POINT PICK – Texas over 85
This is going against Vegas as the over is +120, but I like it anyway. The Angels are dead, this division is up for grabs.
THREE POINT PICK – Cincinnati over 79.5
I know NOTHING about the Reds except that every sports show I pop on talks about them as a sleeper and that they have some pitcher from one of those islands where he probably had to swim to get over here. What the hell.
TWO POINT PICK – NY Mets over 81
You knew it was coming.
ONE POINT PICK – Cardinals over 88.5
This is a high number, but I get the feeling that St Louis could have a ridiculous year, something like mid to high 90s. Let’s see what happens…
