Saturday
Winning on totals and losing on sides again yesterday as has been the case all month. Due for a pretty decent downswing here eventually. One total today:
Boston (Lester) @ Oakland (Griffin) UNDER 8 EVEN
No sides as of now but a small chance of getting either Atlanta (Minor)or Seattle(Felix) both with excellent pitchers going today.
MLS is ugly this week. Lots of players out all over the place between injuries, suspensions and the awful competition that is the Gold Cup. Three plays however:
Montreal @ New York UNDER 2.5 +111
Salt Lake PK and +0.5 +120 @ Dallas
Los Angeles @ Portland DRAW +249
Friday
1-1 yesterday as Edwin Jackson was great for the Cubs but the Eraser wasn’t so great for the Mariners and their much-improved offense as we lost the coinflip late. Taking the Cubs again today with the following:
Cardinals (Kelly) @ Cubs (Villanueva) +104
Nothing else is anywhere close at the moment so I expect this will be it for the day.
Both unders I considered came in yesterday and I would have played the Cubs Cardinals under had I been available yesterday afternoon. I’m going to start tracking these leans daily and playing them at micro stakes. Would like to get these totals where the volume is approaching or somewhat exceeding the sides. The Bookmaker issue is that they practically all have -110 or more juice making these dicey long-term. That said, as I was telling Pat last weekend, there is a non-zero chance I am onto something here.
Kansas City @ Cleveland UNDER 8.5 -110
Minnesota @ Yankees UNDER 8 EVEN or UNDER 8.5 -125
One more that is a lean even under this system is dicey is Texas @ Detroit UNDER 9.5 -120
More tomorrow.
Thursday
Day games did not defeat me today, at least not yet. Nothing yesterday though I probably should have taken the overs I talked about because they were both winners. Some more close ones I will get to below. Two plays though today to confirm:
Boston (Dempster) @ Seattle (Ramirez) +115
St. Louis (Westbrook) @ Cubs (Jackson) +116
Phillies and Padres are on the shortlist to review later. I would like to play Toronto & Cleveland Under 8.5 but only have the option at -120, so that’s a pass. Cubs/Cardinals is also a potential under 8.5 but we will wait on lineups and wind conditions for that one.
Wednesday
Day games got the better of me today, where Miami’s line moved just to where it should be for a play and they lead Atlanta early 4-1. Nothing yesterday to report. HOU/STL Over 7.5 or 8 and BOS/SEA Over 8 are close today though my public numbers are showing a significant percentage on the BOS/SEA over. The public numbers aren’t much of an indicator on MLB totals because there’s just not enough action and most end up with less than 60% on either side. That said, if your only gambling rule was to avoid the public at all costs you’d probably be in the 80th percentile on that alone. Seattle has a much improved offense with their recent callups and I have been looking to take their over action because of this, so we will see.
Nothing doing in Gold Cup action either. With the ‘B’ lineups for the US & Mexico and no other top ranked teams participating, it’s a pretty blah tournament and I haven’t watched more than a few minutes. Martinique, the island not the stripper, earned a 0-0 draw with Canada the other day and were the better team throughout. Belize, who is US beat 6-1 last night, is openly soliciting donations to pay for their trip. I passed on the -2000 on the US in that one.
Updates later per usual if anything develops.
Tuesday
Two losers yesterday though both games were close. Miami ultimately lost in 14 and their bullpen held the Braves hitless for 7 straight innings before conceding 6 in the top of the 14th. The White Sox were tied through seven but lost 4-2.
Only option today is Milwaukee and the line is 9-10 points off of Pinnacle, so no play for me. Nothing on totals either.
Monday
One winner and one loser yesterday as Mendoza got chased in the 2nd and Kansas City were never in the game after that. Chivas parked the minivan as expected in Montreal and managed a 1-1 draw, covering our 2.5 and 3 under.
No soccer bets on the Gold Cup which started yesterday as I can’t find any public betting numbers to go off of. As learned earlier, it’s flying blind without having this at minimum. I also can’t claim to be an expert on the Hatian national team.
Two plays so far in baseball today:
Atlanta (Minor) @ Miami (Slowey) +145
Cubs (Garza) @ White Sox (Santiago) -105
Totals and any updates later this afternoon/evening.
Sunday
Two for three in soccer yesterday as the Revs beat San Jose 2-0 and Vancouver topped Seattle by the same score. Philadelphia couldn’t hold on for the draw however, losing 1-0 in Houston. Five MLS games today but zero one play:
Chivas @ Montreal UNDER 2.5 & 3 +104
One baseball play today:
Oakland (Griffin) @ Kansas City (Mendoza) +116
Saturday #3
That’s what if feels like after the pseudo holiday yesterday. In unhappy gambling, I tried to get a play in on Arizona last night, only to find the shitty Bookmaker lines 10 points off of Pinnacle. It went from -130 to -140 to finally -144 before first pitch. I would have taken the -130 or -131 had it been available. Tyler Skaggs was excellent and Arizona cruised 5-0.
In happier news, our total won again yesterday with Texas covering the 10 on their own. 7-1-1 for the season on totals, with the ones being a miracle cover and a push. I’m starting to be a little more aggressive with these given the early success. We’ll see in a few months if I am really onto something or just off to a fortunate start.
Carrasco and Cleveland at home to Sanchez and Detroit is basically the only option today.
In soccer, taking all three MLS games:
San Jose @ New England UNDER 2.5 -130
Philly @ Houston DRAW +265
Seattle @ Vancouver -112 (No Draw)
And it was a Miracle Cover
I sucked at gambling yesterday, but ended up 2-1 thanks to the kinds of plays that this site was named after. Not only did I screw up and check the prior day’s lineups for Mets/Diamondbacks, both managers sent out all of their available reserves to start after Friday’s game ended after midnight with a day game to follow. Unsurprisingly, two offenses filled with backups left many potential runs on the board. This continued into extras tied 2-2 where Arizona got a run but should have had 2-3 more. Arizona got one run in the 13th and 14th innings, but were foiled by solo home runs by the Mets two worst hitters in the bottom half of each inning to win the over.
Detroit and Toronto was never close as Verlander found his groove and the Tigers won 11-0. Mujica blew a save for the Cardinals to get us the winning day. Nothing in soccer thankfully as there would have been only losers there.
I am not seeing anything in baseball today but will have a look again this afternoon.
EDIT: Found one! Houston (Harrell) @ Texas (Tepesch) OVER 9.5
Happy 4th
Short on time so I’ll get straight to the plays. Nothing to report from yesterday.
Detroit (Verlander) @ Toronto (Rodgers) +117
St. Louis (Wainwright) @ LA Angels (Blanton) +120
Arizona(Kennedy) @ Mets(Gee) OVER 8
Passing on MLS again today Dallas -250 is closest to a play.
