Wednesday
2-1 yesterday with the White Sox losing while making four errors in Detroit but still squeezing the under thanks to their incompetent offense. Seattle also won late, their 8th in a row obscured by the fact that their streak started before the All-Star break. As I’ve been saying since their roster turnover, it’s a much improved offense for the Mariners helped by the fact that their automatic outs from the start of the season have been relegated to either the bench or AAA.
Three potential plays on sides today. All night games, Toronto, White Sox and KC. My totals machine tends to like teams in bunches, so Yankees-Rangers Over 9, which needed a 9th inning comeback for a push yesterday is on the list again today. Reds/Giants Under 7.5 is the other highly rated option so far.
Nothing in the three day games today, so updates in the late afternoon per usual.
UPDATE: Tigers (Sanchez) @ White Sox (Danks) +118
No totals pass muster, but I took Padres/Brewers Over 8.5 in my picks contest FWIW.
One late soccer play in the Gold Cup, Panama v. Mexico Over 2 -108
Tuesday
Some more good fortune in going 2-2 yesterday as Seattle held on to beat Cleveland 2-1 and Minnesota beat Anaheim 4-3 for under 8.5. The Angels came close to tying up the game in the late innings which would have ensured the over coming in. One play so far today as we are taking Seattle again at home to Cleveland, McAllister v. Ramirez (-113). Lean on the White Sox later hosting Detroit, we’ll see if Miguel Cabrera is playing or not there. Yankees/Rangers O9, Sox/Tiggers U8.5 look like the other options right now. The totals take a lot more work to sort out, so it’s slower going until lineups are posted. Unders can post early since we know the starters and the best available lineup. Overs need to confirm everything is in order before going ahead. It’s no fun taking an over and getting caught out with a Bobby Cox Sunday lineup.
More later per usual.
EDIT:
Yankees/Rangers Over doesn’t pass. Cabrera is OUT tonight for Detroit. Taking the following:
Detroit (Porcello) @ White Sox (Quintana) EVEN, UNDER 8.5 -105
As mentioned above, the other play tonight is Cleveland (McAllister) @ Seattle (Ramirez) -113
End of the Run
It had to end sometime and did Sunday night as Baltimore beat Texas 4-2 for a solid under. 1-1 on the day as the White Sox beat a struggling Braves side 3-1. I’m attending Mets-Bravos at New Shea later tonight (Gee-Teheran) so no late updates as I don’t wager via tablet/phone.
One play in early today is Cleveland (Jimenez) @ Seattle (Harang) -115. It doesn’t look like there will be any totals today :(
Any unlikely updates will go here in two hours or so.
One more play to add to the less than optimal totals and that’s Minnesota (Deduno) @ LA Angels (Blanton) Under 8.5 -105
That’s really it for today.
Sunday
1-1-1 in soccer yesterday but winning the Dallas-Montreal match makes it a +1.84 day. Two plays in baseball:
Braves (Minor) @ White Sox (Quintana) +110
Baltimore (Tillman) @ Texas (Perez) Over 9.5 -105
The total is one that is of lower quality than Pre-ASB, so 1/2 unit if you’re feeling conservative. We’ll see how these weaker ones play out.
MLS Saturday
Easy win yesterday in baseball as the teams combined for 22. Lean on the Over 7.5 with the same teams, though after doing this not long ago and relying on a Miracle Cover to win, it’s likely a pass. I won’t be around this afternoon, so probably no other plays. Nothing stood out this morning.
Action down on a busy MLS Saturday:
Seattle +105 to win at home to Colorado
Friday
Short on time today. No sides as I don’t think anyone is aware that baseball starts back today, so there’s barely any line moves of note. One total and that is Philly (Kendrick) @ Mets (Hefner) Over 8 -105
The Worst Day of the Year
It’s about 100 degrees outside and there are zero major sporting events going on. 0-2 in minor plays yesterday and I’m debating whether to count them on my record for the season. I really, really want to take New England away to Colorado in MLS tonight, but I have a variable that is showing on my spreadsheet which is a big giant negative so I have to pass. There’s no baseball tomorrow either for anyone wondering because a few years ago some teams started bitching and moaning that they only got three days off while other teams got four, so now everyone starts again on Friday and the World Series ends in November. NFL win totals and futures are generally up everywhere, but I’ll leave that to Pat to cover as I haven’t read or looked at anything as I’ve been building all of these baseball and soccer models since January. And by models I mean spreadsheets because that’s how I roll.
All-Star Tuesday
A couple of small plays today to tide us over the All-Star break.
American League (Scherzer) @ National League (Harvey) OVER 8 -105
Costa Rica @ USA Over 2.5 EVEN
Some stats on the baseball season to date:
Total 42-37-1 +9.55u
April 9-7 +4.06
May 12-13 -0.12
June 11-10-1 +2.1
July 10-7 +3.51
Away Sides which I’ve all but eliminated going forward are 6-12 -4.04. Unless fading a particular lineup or starter, these won’t be used.
Home Sides are even for the year 25-25, but good for +2.59
Totals as ya’ll are aware are most of the profit to date, 11-0-1 +11u as these have all been at minus or even odds.
Soccer to date is 20-21 +5.68u. I leave you with a funny Luis Suarez commercial
All-Star Monday
We missed a loss yesterday with the line move I was bitching about causing a pass on the play entirely. Cole Hamels was much better and the game finished 4-3 in extras after a Papelbon blown save. I’m getting a play down today with the pitchers and lineup out for the All-Star game tomorrow OVER 8. There are rumors that Scherzer is nursing an injury and won’t be going full speed. This is normally countered by starting pitchers throwing much faster than normal since they are only going one inning. Regardless, I’ll go over here for half a unit since it’s a fake game.
I’m debating hedging some of my futures out, but the amounts are relatively small, so it’s not really worth doing. I may change my mind at some point.
Sunday
1-2 in soccer yesterday as we were foiled by a Portland goal late in stoppage time to ruin a 1-1 draw and send the home fans happy. Montreal got shelled 4-0 as they did not park the minivan correctly and Salt Lake proved they are the deepest team in the league, missing five starters but winning away 3-0.
No sides in baseball, but our under came in easily.
No plays to report today. Happy Bastille Day.
EDIT: One play to add: White Sox (Quintana) @ Phillies (Hamels) O7.5 -110
EDIT2: Bookmaker just cancelled my play and moved the line to 8 and -110. Fuck them.
