Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Friday
Light day yesterday and I went 1-0 with San Diego covering, losing by 1 on a last second shot. I debated backing Carolina again in hockey yesterday away to Nashville, but opted against and missed out as they won easily. I do have a hockey play today, and that’s Anaheim +150 @ Chicago. Also a hoops play, Doug’s Marist +9.5.
There should be some NFL action and just as I figured, Washington is showing up on my filters for Sunday. Still not sure what I’ll do there, but a few other games also look OK at the moment. Likely no college football for me this weekend as these neutral site games and indifferent public opinion have me without much to go on. Bowling Green +3 is close for me tonight but I am passing.
Lastly if anyone hasn’t heard, the US got a ghost of World Cups past in their group drawing Germany, Ghana and Portugal, the latter being literally played in the rainforest. Lots of crap teams on the US half of the draw, so there is a decent chance of making the later stages of the tournament for whoever makes it out of this group. Six months until the tournament, so we’ll have plenty of time to get down action this summer.
Thursday
We went 1-2 on college hoops yesterday with BC and Virginia both losing by a lot but having Fordham cover easily. The hockey game we didn’t play was also a winner with Philly beating Detroit 6-3. Nothing doing in a full slate of NHL today unfortunately. One hoops game tonight and it’s San Diego +6. NFL and NCAAF games are both 3 point spreads and neither is worthy of a gamble IMHO. I was close to taking Jacksonville in my picks contest but chickened out at the last moment. I need a Houston win for my Oakland – worst record bet to have any chance of being a push.
One update I neglected to provide Tuesday was a summary for the college football wins totals I placed at the start of the season. They almost to the dollar broke even. Here is the breakdown:
Auburn UNDER 7.5 and Oregon OVER 10.5 were losers due to an excellent and previously underrated head coach and a complete tank job at the end of the season respectively. Alabama OVER 11 was a push. Our two winners were Cincinnati OVER 8.5 and Kansas UNDER 4, both of whom made the cover a bit of a sweat but ultimately did what was expected at the start of the season.
Wednesday
Carolina was an easy 4-1 winner yesterday, taking our streak up to 8 out of 9 the last couple of weeks. Long may this continue, though I am sure there is a downswing coming. Basketball was a loser with the game coming down to the end and Colorado St. losing by 5. No hockey tonight though the Flyers are close, but three hoops games:
Virginia -4
Boston College +4
Fordham -13
The college totals have tightened up quite a bit from closer to the start of the season. I was overreacting to some teams tendencies of playing slower than last season (Ohio St. being the most notable). 6-3 is obviously a good record, but at this rate I will be surprised if there are 9 more plays the whole season.
Update Tuesday
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 5-5-2 -0.5
NCAA Hoops Totals are 6-3 +2.7
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 14-8 +11.27
NFL: 11-8 +3.72
Any plays will get posted below much later.
Plays for Tuesday:
NHL: Carolina +140 @ Washington
NCAAB: Colorado St. +2.5
Monday
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
NFL
Nothing clever here. Love faves this week. Am making an 80 bet to win 72 on all fave lines minus G-Men. In addition, all bets here @ 20
Miami @ Jets -1 -110
Chicago @ Vikings -1 105
Parlay MLs Panthers -305 Pats -285 Browns -315
Cards @ Eagles -3.5 +100
Dolphins/Jets Over 39.5 -110
Parlay MLs Colts -180 Bills -25
Sunday
Mixed day yesterday as both hoops sides were winners, Eastern Illinois by a single point and Harvard by a lot. One the Texas A&M total, it turned out to be a bad line as it should have been 138.5 instead of 128.5 and was quickly corrected after I placed by action. It didn’t matter as the teams only combined for 107. Kentucky was an easy loser in football and I’m back to a slight negative there after a good run.
NFL today had two games worth noting, only one of which is any good at the moment. Houston is hosting New England today and were anywhere from +9.5 to +7.5 underdogs. That’s now moved to 7 or even 6.5, removing the Texans as a play today :( The other notable game is Atlanta +4 “at” Buffalo as the game is being played in Toronto. I am on Atlanta for a small (half) play. Lastly, the night game tonight is the Giants @ Washington. Not sure yet if that will amount to anything, but if so Washington is the side to be on there.
NHL: Nothing yesterday but one game very likely today and that’s Edmonton +150. Gametime is 6:00 Eastern so I’ll confirm that later.
NCAA: No totals yet as they tend to get released late. One side today, Siena +10.5
Good luck today.
UPDATES: Added Atlanta +4.5 to make for a full bet and confirming Edmonton +150
UPDATE 2: Washington to win -105
Week 13 Quick Slants
UFC:
Nate Diaz +105
NFL:
Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF
Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland
49ers -7 vs St. Louis
Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:
A $100 parlay on Auburn and Penn State to win outright would have paid $8,056. Sadly, no one on earth bet it.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 1, 2013
Saturday
Updates sporadically as I am all over the place today but not drinking in front of one or more televisions unfortunately. Football play was a loser yesterday, but MO State won for some more Zimbabwean dollars.
College Hoops: Texas A&M – SMU OVER 128.5
College Football: I like Kentucky tonight but it’s too early to post a play. I would like the line to move back to 4 and I will pass at 3. Nothing else looks very appealing
NHL: Seemingly everyone is on a back-to-back. That will happen when the usual batch of Thursday games is pushed to Friday.
NFL tomorrow
UPDATES:
Kentucky +3.5 at home to Tennessee
Hoops side: Eastern Illinois +7
UPDATE 2: One more hoops side Harvard -10
