Loser Friday
Losers all the way around yesterday. I figured the over would be safe after a 4-point line move from 166 to 162 yesterday but it wasn’t close as the Under easily came in even on the reduced number. Both hockey plays were losers as well, Calgary in OT on a questionable penalty & powerplay goal and Columbus setting leads of 3-0 and 4-2 on fire before this happened:
No hockey tonight as I don’t want any part of the Islanders tonight. Florida is out of conference and Vancouver is on a back-to-back. Pair of basketball plays however:
NBA: Brooklyn -6 @ Philadelphia
NCAAB: UNO/Minnesota Over 153.5
Thursday
Washington won outright in our only action yesterday in a generally uninteresting game. I have two NBA futures open and neither is going well at the 1/3 mark of the NBA season: Bucks OVER 28 and Nets to win the Atlantic at -158. I took the Nets play basically because I thought the Knicks would be anywhere from average to not good and I figured no one else could feasibly win that division (TOR, BOS, PHI are the others). My Milwaukee play had everything to do with their old owner essentially forbidding their GM to tank and start over, desiring a “competitive” team instead (Read: 8th seed contender & 1st round fodder). The only problem is their entire starting lineup has been injured, and when you takeaway a few starters from a projected 28 win team you get the 2013 Milwaukee Bucks.
This brings me to last night’s game in Milwaukee versus the Knicks. The Bucks had a chance to win in regulation, and were gifted another overtime thanks to this disaster of a play. Note Walt Frazier channeling his inner Loubacca with this call. Just brilliant. Plays later per usual.
UPDATE: Actual gambling and lots of hockey on the agenda…
NCAAB: Duke/UCLA Over 162.5
NHL: Columbus +135 @ Philadelphia, Calgary +125 @ Detroit. Edmonton is an option for those looking for more action, but I am going to pass on them at around +170 at Colorado tonight.
Wednesday
I would be rivaling shortest post status if I didn’t have this sentence. Florida won, Alabama lost yesterday, both in close games. One NBA play tonight as I seek to fill the void between betable hockey games and that’s Washington +4.5 @ Brooklyn. I think I could walk down and attend this game for $10 if I wanted.
Good luck to all per usual and no NFL game tomorrow as an FYI.
Update Tuesday
No plays yesterday though Winnipeg hit the mythical, magical 35% public # cutoff and went on to win 3-2. They are technically a West Coast team playing East but the Jets used to be the Thrashers of Atlanta and Columbus of Ohio used to be in the “West.” Got it?
Plays Tonight: NHL Florida +118 @ Toronto, NCAAB Wichita St @ Alabama +2
Updates on how I am doing:
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 7-8-2 -1.8 (Closing this out as I am onto real $ now, albeit very sporadically)
NCAA hoops Sides (Real $) 1-0 +1.0
NCAA Hoops Totals are 7-5 +1.65
NCAA Football Regular Season: 10-11 -1.47 (Also closed as we are onto Bowl Season)
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 17-12 +11.57
NFL: 15-12 +5.85
NBA: 2-2 -0.1
Monday
Mixed NFL day yesterday only salvageable by the fact that I bet larger on the winners and smaller on the losers where it was just as easy to do the opposite. I could have passed on the losers entirely but couldn’t help myself to more action on shitty teams. Edmonton lost in hockey 3-2.
Nothing much on the schedule for today. I’m having trouble logging into my Bookmaker account, so the exciting UC Riverside/Northern Colorado game tonight will have to wait. Winnipeg and Toronto are close passes in NHL.
Week 15
Ill go with these @ 19.
Dolphins -2.5 -113
Browns +1 -113
Bucs +4.5 -105
Texans/Colts Under 47 -105
NFL Sunday
Interesting NFL Sunday shaping up with the public over 2/3 on on team or another in 8-9 games today. Week 9 in 2012 had a similar setup and the public won big.
At the end of the third quarter of the early NFL games on Sunday, Las Vegas Hotels Super Book vice president Jay Kornegay knew he needed more money at the front of the sportsbook.
“I’ve been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday,” Kornegay said. “We call for more money a couple times a year, but never like this.”
Before the day started, Kornegay and his team went over the teams that its bettors loved that week: Denver, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, Houston, Chicago and Seattle.
All of them were favorites. All of them won.
Just a brief word of warning before blindly betting against the public in every game. We’ll see if I ignore my own advice or not.
Stanford Under was a close loser yesterday.
NFL Plays:
Minnesota +6 -105 & +6.5 -110 & Minnesota +227 to win outright. Easily the best play of the day.
Smaller plays:
Giants +9
Tampa +4.5
Oakland and Rams are options at 4:00. Good luck today.
UPDATE 1: Arizona/Tennessee OVER 42.5
UPDATE 2: Oakland is up to +6 so I will have a go. 1/2 unit play like the non-Minnesota ones above. Oilers in hockey are possible play later tonight.
UPDATE 3: Passing on Edmonton tonight 3-3 +1.635 on the day.
Sunday Week 15 bets
Cleveland +1 vs CHI (Betting against Jay Culter, coming off an injury, against a Cleveland team at home that is keeping every game close? Yes, please. The only thing I worry about is the damn CLE coaching stuff fucking this up. I’m also betting props against Pat Darts’ fantasy reject Alshon Jeffery under TDs 1 at +110 and under 75.5 yards at -125).
SF -6 at TB (I just think SF is too physical for this team. They are also fighting for a WC spot).
ATL/WAS Over 50 (Washington as a team is a mess right now, and their defense has been so all year. Also will throw this in teaser with ATL -6, going against my “don’t throw the Falcons in a teaser” logic….but the entire WAS situation I think is just that bad)
Teaser: CAR -10 + Under 41.5 + KC -6 at OAK (all at +140)
CAR/NYJ Under 41.5
Marshawn Lynch (SEA at NYG) Hedge Props: Under 79.5 yards (-120) and under 1 TD (+130)
Snowy Saturday
Not much doing besides winter. No plays yesterday. NHL: Carolina would be a play at Phoenix under the old system, but that is a pass now and none of the other hockey games today are worth noting. Nothing doing in NBA because of all the back-to-backs. One total in college on the west coast, UC Davis/Stanford OVER 152. The line on this has already moved to 154 in the time I’ve been writing this post and watching Hull & Stoke not score.
Should be some NFL tomorrow.
Quick Hits
UFC:
