Category: NFL
Monday Funday
Great job by Sean and Pat here over the weekend. Great picks by both and a healthy profit was had by all. I sat out most of the day, losing the teaser be but winning some Zimbabwean dollars on a hoops “play.” More action this evening so let’s get to it…
NHL: Columbus +166
NCAA Hoops: Wyoming/Ohio State UNDER 131.5
Minnesota/Syracuse UNDER 143
NFL game tonight is San Francisco @ Washington +4.5. San Francisco is a west coast team playing on the east coast as a favorite with the public 79% on their side. They are also a top 5 play in the Hilton contest, and while those picks are 4-0 this week, it only puts them up to 19-32-2 for the season. Washington +4.5 is the play here.
Will update stats tomorrow.
NFL Sunday
I am largely passing on today’s slate of NFL games as there’s nothing that really stands out. Lots of games are 50/50 as far as public betting numbers. The two teams that were the closest to being bets for me are San Diego and the Jets, but I can only find 4 on the latter and the Chargers line has moved from +5 to +3.5 so that is an automatic pass as I don’t play follow NFL line moves of over a point.
I do have a garbage line teaser today and that’s Chicago and Pittsburgh both +8.5. They are both +1 on Pinnacle.
Yesterday had college football plays go 2-1 as LSU and San Diego State covered fairly easily with Arkansas losing in OT. Hockey plays were 1-1 with Ottawa winning 4-2 and Dallas losing heavily 6-1. Nothing in hockey or college football today.
Lastly, one college hoops play as I don’t see anything on the totals. Please don’t bet these or take the other side as I’m 0 for the season so far. Northeastern +12
Drunken Promises
Both Sean and I were winners last week, boldly picking the Raiders on the road. Fortune favored this brave pick, and we were rewarded with a cover. While watching the game, we patted each other on the back, saying “I mean, who thinks the Texans are 10 points better than anyone?” “I know right, you have to bet against them at that line against anyone, I’d do it if they were playing Jacksonville for Chrissake!” “No brainer,” said I, swigging from a 40. “Let’s do a shot.” Fast forward to this week, where lo and be-motherfuckin-hold who should the Texans be playing? Fantastic. As if betting Oakland wasn’t proof enough of mental instability, we now get to bet on the Jaguars. Where’s that 40 at? All of these plays are @ 19.
Jacksonville +10.5 -109 @ Houston
Jets @ Ravens Under 38.5 -113
Bears @ Rams Over 46.5 -102
Meanwhile the lines are going a bit bizzerk. I was all prepared to bet Tampa and the Chargers who have both dropped like 2 points in the last couple hours…
Cowboys @ Giants -2.5 -115
Steelers @ Browns ML -134
Colts @ Cards -3 -116
Broncos @ Patriots ML +111
7 Pt Teaser making the lines Tampa +14.5 Chargers +10.5 Jets +11.5
“The Raiders….on offense!”
Gotta hand it to the rookie Matt McGloin (Penn State) on the road last week coming up with the win. He looked very good, and the fact Penn State runs a pro offense helps. hell, the Raiders even scored touchdowns……on offense (despite missing all of his weapons)! We like him getting a point at home to the Titans (even) this Sunday.
I also like Jacksonville +10 (-115) in Houston. They’ve covered the number the last few weeks, and this bet is more of a moratorium on the fact that Houston, I don’t think, is ten points better than ANYBODY right now.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110) vs NY Jets – I’m not enthused taking the Ravens with juice here, but the Jets on the road have just been SO bad. Having a rookie QB doesn’t help, and Anthony Allen might miss this game as well and that’s huge because Rex Ryan’s blitzing, aggressive scheme relies on a roaming, instinctive, athletic safety. They just signed Ed Reed, but he only has 2 out of the 3 left there. Also teasing this with the under at 39.
Giants/Cowboys Over 45 (-110) – Watching missed tackles is kind of fun. I get to do it every week as a Pats fan. If we could only get the Tecmo Bowl music:
Thursday
Yesterday’s total was a winner in a contender for most boring college game of the season. Our fake play lost again and I think I’ll stop posting them at this point. No plays in hoops today. One football game in college, UAB +17.5. In NFL, I missed out yesterday and the line has now moved back to where it started to NO -7 or 7.5, so I am on the wrong side of this one.
Also nothing in hockey for those who are following there.
UPDATE: I am hedged out onto Atlanta +8
Wednesday
Both plays were losers yesterday, with the total getting smushed by a 103 point effort by Wisconsin. I went back and checked and Wisconsin put up 99 against Prarie View A&M in their 2011 opener and there was nothing more than an odd 90 point game against other hapless opponents over the past 10 seasons. In our three totals plays so far, two have been off by literally 50 points and the third was a one point winner. I’m going to guess there’s nothing conclusive in that.
Tonight’s total is on a snoozer, Amerian @ Ohio St. Under 127
In fake plays that will probably lose: Tulsa +6
Nothing remotely close in hockey tonight. In other news I took some early action this morning for maybe the first time ever and got Saints +7 -115 for their game at Atlanta tomorrow. The line has spiked all the way to 9.5 or 10 in some places as everyone and their extended families is taking the New Orleans. There is zero reason to bet New Orleans at this point if you haven’t already, and I’ll be looking for some creative way to have a middle open instead of being forced to cheer for the Saints, which being from Atlanta I can’t actually do.
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
Monday
Fun day yesterday with lots of winners, hope some of you were able to follow along. Only the late, late play on Minnesota and teaser were losers thanks to the Falcons getting back to their heritage and losing horribly at home for no real reason at all. I doubled up on the Miami play and long time readers know that the Chargers are my 2nd favorite team to bet against (Dallas being #1) so that was an added bonus.
One NFL game tonight and Carolina is the side to be on. The line unfortunately won’t be moving off of 3, so I will most likely pass, but the game opened at 1 and anything up to 2.5 would be good value. Not a guarantee by any stretch, but at the very least there is no compelling reason to take New England.
There should be at least one and maybe even two hockey games tonight. I’ll update later in the evening. Season totals below…
Tracking plays in NCAA hoops are down to 0-2-2 -2.2
NCAA Hoops Totals are 2-0 +2.0 Those are real plays, albeit not for a whole lot relative to the other sports.
NCAA Football: 7-8 -1.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 8-7 +4.01
NFL: 10-5 +5.31
EDIT: Calgary is the only hockey play tonight Flames +135
Sunday Funday
Two winners yesterday as Miss St. and the basketball under both easily covered and a push again on the tracking basketball play.
Lots of NFL plays today:
Miami +2.5 (Adding onto Miami +1 from yesterday)
Buffalo +2.5
Pittsburgh +3
Bookmaker garbage teaser: ATL +8.5, Buffalo +8.5, Denver -1.5
College Hoops:
Stony Brook +12.5
Michigan/Iowa State Under 148
NHL:
Columbus +145 @ Ottawa
UPDATE: NFL Minnesota +13
Weekend Picks
NFL:
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
UFC:
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
