Category: NFL
NFL Championship Sunday
Seattle -7.5 (-105)
I have Seattle 13/2 to win the NFC, so I usually hedge with Green Bay here. But with a banged up Rodgers, an average running game, and the fact Green Bay got destroyed here in Week 1…..I just think Seattle gets it done today and becomes the first back-to-back Super Bowl attended since Denver in 1997 and 1998. I also like the Under (45, -115) as winds could get up to 60mph, effecting the passing games. I am more afraid of the miracle cover TD that means nothing than GB actually winning the game. GB basically lost this game when they lost to Buffalo at the end of the year (they would of had home field if they won).
The Seahawks have won 8 straight playoff games at home. Their 10-2 playoff record at home is tied for the best in NFL history.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 18, 2015
New England -7 (EVEN)
This is at 6-6.5 at some books. Very interesting game in terms of lines. My worry is that EVERYBODY is picking the Pats; no one is on the Colts and Lou even thinks they have a chance to win. The Pats are flawed, but this team this year just finds some way to pull games out of their ass (I am still watching the Edleman-to-Amendola TD on loop daily; the best part is the “awkward white guy high fives” and also Edleman winding his arm like its sore). Even if they lose 50% production on the running game as an aggregate average vs the last 3 times they’ve played the Colts, they would still gain 115.5 yards on the ground. Luck is a good QB, and has improved each year…..its not his time yet. It reminds me of a young LeBron carrying the Cavs on his back in 2007 just to get to the finals to lose to the Spurs (who the Pats are compared to often). Luck will be in many of these games, he just won’t win this one. Boom Herron somewhat scares me, but he’ll fumble the ball at a key moment. It is expected to POUR in the 3rd and 4th quarter; Brady’s record in bad weather game is ridiculous (I think he’s batting 90%, and has never lost in the snow).
I’m also going to be a total fish and parlaying the MLs for both Seattle (-340) and New England (-275) and putting them in a teaser (like 90% of America).
I also like the following props:
Which market will have the higher ratings: Boston +300 (yes, you can bet on this. As a guy who follows this stuff closely, this has a great chance as it is a) a game in primetime on a Sunday Night b) 3/4ths of all households watched the Pats game on a SATURDAY NIGHT c) Danny Amendola is playing and the people of New England cannot miss his brilliance).
Over Total receiving yards Danny Amendola 32.5 (-115)
He’s the J.D. Drew for this run; the overpaid guy who has underperformed (granted, due to injury) but then pulls brilliance out of his ass when it counts during a title run. Also, I don’t think the Colts secondary is all that good…Manning had guys wide open and missed them all day last week. Brady will not be as kind.
Will there be a two point conversion made? Yes @ +560
If the Colts are behind, they’ll probably have to attempt one at some point.
UFC Bonus:
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone +115
Ron “The Choir Boy” Stallings +525
1/18 – EPL and Championship Sunday
Our very fortunate day yesterday takes us to positive territory for the month. I wholeheartedly agree with Louis that Indy and Seattle are the best options later today and likely those will be the picks here barring weird line movement. For now…
West Ham vs Hull City Under 2 and 2.5 (-104) @ 14
Do not see making a play on Man City/Arsenal at this point.
YTD : +38.06
MTD : +38.06
****UPDATE****
Seattle -8 -110
Indy +6.5 +102
Both plays are @ 22. There will be a direct relationship in regards to freaky prop bets with alcohol intake throughout the day.
****UPDATE II****
Thunder/Magic Under 213.5 -103 @ 14
January 17
No plays tonight. We effectively pushed on NBA yesterday. Will have a look again tomorrow but hockey looks light again and NFL is probably going to be a pass with Indy and Seattle being the better option for each game.
NFL Sunday
Denver -7
The Colts front 7 is not every good. CJ Anderson has a big day today
Green Bay -6 (-105)
I just can’t take Dallas with a free conscience.
January 11
Mixed day again yesterday. 1-1 for a profit in hockey and 1-2 for a loss in NBA. I didn’t have any NFL action yesterday and also didn’t understand all the freaking out over the Patriots yesterday and somewhat again today. It’s not like the Ravens are actually the Raiders wearing purple unis. If your team plays like shit for the 1st half and is only down by 7 and nearly ended up only down 3, that’s a good outcome.
Nothing looks very good today. There might be some small value on the Pakcers moneyline if it gets down near -200 or so, but otherwise it’s probably a pass. Phoenix +5 in NBA in an early option, but nearing midseason I’m a very sad 13-16-2 -4.1. NHL is a positive 39-45-1 +4.44
NFL Saturday
2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?
I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals. The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is. I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.
The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money. The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.
Here are the picks:
Seattle -11 (-105)
I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers. It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada. Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense. These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit). I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play. But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one. I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road. The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead). I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7. One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards. These guys are just happy to be here.
New England -7
Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town. Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best. BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape. Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays. The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day. If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field. Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs. The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament. Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check. If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings. Wait, what? I only thought that happens in the NBA?
Side Thoughts:
Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190. This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due. I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.
Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.
NFL Sunday
2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive! Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO. For example:
Carolina just made gambling history: they sweated out a cover in a home playoff game against an offense that couldn't break 100 total yards.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 4, 2015
Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)
This was tough game to pick. Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham). Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run. The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close. Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts. The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%. Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however. But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….
Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)
All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots. Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams. The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times. Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor. And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”. Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse. It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.
TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5
2015 Day 4
Yesterday we won our Nashville play in one of the more ridiculous and entertaining games of the year. I asked on Twitter if anyone had stats on blown leads of three goals or more prior to the end of the 3rd as Nashville led 5-1 and 6-3 only to finish 7-6 winners in overtime. Everything else was a pass. Two NFL games this afternoon and I am on both
Bungles +3.5 @ Indy
Lions +6 @ Dallas
My only regret is not getting a better line earlier in the week (4 and 7 respectively). I’ll likely have an NBA game and amateur football play later this evening.
UPDATE Ark St +3
Saturday
More bowl game winners yesterday pushing our record for the season to 17-7 +12.32 with two games remaining. We ended up 4-0 on our 2u plays of which UCLA was one along with South Carolina, Bowling Green and Texas A&M. Hockey has been a waste of time to date with two losses and a pass on a winner taking the season record to 34-42-1 good for a sad +0.23. NFL regular season finished up at 16-15 +4.35.
I don’t like either playoff game today, but I do have a preference on both the Bungles and Lions tomorrow getting at least 3.5 and 7 respectively. For anyone looking to take Carolina today, you should be able to get 5.5 as Arizona is getting bet down any time the line pops up to 6.
Lastly, there should be some NHL plays today: Nashville early and New Jersey, Minnesota and San Jose later on make up today’s shortlist.
UPDATE 1: Nashville +110 @ Los Angeles
The Quest for Perfection
Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated). It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity. Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.
The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round). Let’s hope this year brings in perfection. Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):
Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)
I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games. I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is. Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed. And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score. The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today. Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible. I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well. I think both games are tight slugfests today.
Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh
No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play. He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game. Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road. They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa. Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad. Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows. So then: what gives them a chance in this game? Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today). People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles? Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad? No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time). Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in. Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix? I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.
Parlay Special:
CAR ML -260
CAR/ARI Under 38
BAL/PIT Under 45.5
UFC Special:
Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240
Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.
Myles “Fury” Jury +130
He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today. The problem? It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated. This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).
