Category: NFL
NFL Week 10
This was a tough week to pick; not a lot of big plays here, just enough to hit my bonus on the site I bet on (as well as the fact that I have a gambling problem).
Pittsburgh -6 (EVEN) at NYJ
I can’t stop betting against Mike Vick
Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) vs DAL
Let’s start our QB who has a back problem after an 8 hour INTL flight. I can see Dallas losing this game lol
Baltimore -10 (EVEN) vs TEN
Mettenberger gets thrown to the wolves today
MIA at DET Under 44
2 really good defenses and 2 really average offenses = a game that probably could help one take a nap
TEASERS:
BAL -10, GB -7, ARI -7, PIT -6
SEA -10, OAK +13*
*also agree with Lou on Oakland and might take them once 4:00pm rolls around. They are playing hard every week.
Sunday
An 0-2 hockey day for us as both the Rangers and Avs were one goal losers, Colorado being done in by an unnecessary Nathan MacKinnon boarding major. Tulane won their game against Houston as a 17 point underdog so good for them.
Today is a day to attempt to open a Bovada account to get action down on Jets +6. It’s a 2.5 point swing down to the sharper Pinnacle line and the public is predictably all over Pittsburgh. Please do not bet on the Steelers in any capacity today. My plays:
Jets to win outright +164
Hopefully some Jets +6 -115
Oakland +11.5
Oakland to win outright +500
One other possible game is Chicago tonight. Nothing in NBA or NHL today.
UPDATE: I lied Toronto +115
TNF Thoughts
I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard. I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).
I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?). But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110). A few thoughts:
I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil. Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league. What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good. It might even be top-5 good. They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year. It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).
The Browns offense on the other hand? Awful. Just awful. They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack. Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:
The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week. They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green). Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu. Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy. Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet. He’s had several concussions this year. The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).
The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph. 75% of the money is on the over (at -105). The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt. Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity. It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play. I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.
NHL BONUS:
Tonight's #Browns #Bengals game is receiving more bets (54,052) than all 10 NHL games combined (43,899).
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 7, 2014
Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here! Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)
Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year. They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)
Thursday
Both basketball plays were losers yesterday as Denver was not close to winning at all. The system backtested well so we’ll stick with it for the time being. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Florida are on the shortlist for hockey tonight from west to east. Not sure yet which games will end up being plays but I’l try and get them up 30 minutes before gametime.
NFL tonight is Browns at Bungles. I liked Cincy at -6 but not at 6.5 or 7 which is where the line will close. Good luck.
FLORIDA +135 @ Philadelphia
UPDATE Vancouver +120 @ San Jose
Monday
1-0 with our Rams play yesterday and a big swing and a miss not getting in Miami before it moved to -3. It was probably playable there but I was nitty with the line move and missed out on an easy win. Up to a merely below-average 7-8 for -0.15 on the season. Nothing in hockey gain with a solo game tonight that’s already well underway and nothing over the weekend either. NHL is 7-7 +2.45 for the season. No bet on Giants-Colts tonight and we’ll hope for some action tomorrow.
Sunday
3-3 in amateur football yesterday. Likely passing on Miami, Jets and Houston with yesterday’s Rams the only play today.
NFL Week 9
Posting this early as I will be getting hammered starting at around 8:30AM for the other football.
KC -10 (+105) vs Jets
Started at -115, now +105. Pounding this all the way; giddy at both taking Vick on the road in KC vs fans who will be rabid after that stomach punch WS loss…..and watching the Jets implode is always a yearly treat.
Bucs +7 (-120) at Cleveland
Way too many points. Cleveland missing both Mack and Cameron.
Arizona +2.5 (or whatever it is) at DAL
Oakland +15.5 at Seattle
Oakland will be a tougher and tougher out as they get close to (im)perfection. Seattle having identity and clubhouse issues, too. This is now at +14.5. BTW: I think if I am the Raiders, I wait for the Jets to fire Rex Ryan and then give him the keys. He’d be a great fit there.
San Diego +1 at Dolphins
Rivers vs Tannenhill? I’ll take Rivers.
5 team teaser (at +400):
PIT +1, NE +3.5, SF -10, KC -10, OAK +21
4 team parlay (+1200)
SD +1, KC -10, NE +3.5, TB +7
EPL Bonus:
MAN U v MAN CITY UNDER 3
TOTTENHAM EVEN
Sacrilege
Team Lou has college football plays today. Please remember from the last time I did this, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, nor can I name a single player on any of these rosters. I don’t think I could name a more then five college football in total unless you let me just say ‘Smith’ or some other ubiquitous last name. Toronto was an easy 4-1 winner in hockey last night. Possible but unlikely to have any plays tonight. Here is college football:
Air Force – Army UNDER 56.5 -109
Boston College +3 -114
Maryland +3 -102
Northwestern +3.5 -114
Kentucky +7.5 -106
And an NFL game I am getting posted early before the line moves down to 8 or something ridiculous:
Rams +10 -117 @ San Francisco
UPDATE: San Diego St +3 -115
Game 6
I like the Royals tonight -142 vs the Giants. Peavy is a great NL pitcher, but he just shits the bed in AL parks (and he has a 7.34 postseason ERA). I also love betting teams, down 3-2, in Game 6s. Especially teams with fight like the Royals.
Also, thanks to Lou for the Bills and Washington plays (I luckily got the Washington Colt McCoys at +10……part of a hedge for my season under 7.5 wins bet…which could be in jeopardy after their two games as they play the Vikings and the Bucs).
Another early NFL lean: KC -10 vs the Jets at -115. Get it now before the juice/line goes up. Chiefs are 6-1 vs the spread this year, are a great home team, and Mike Vick is starting at QB for the Jets. Watch the “highlights” of him playing vs the Chargers and Bills, throwing balls into the dirt like it was a god damned cricket match. Add a rift between the GM and the (lame duck) head coach over the Jets’ QB situation, and its easy money, IMO.
Monday
A winning Sunday for us yesterday as all plays were easy winners. NFL numbers have improved to merely below average here at the halfway point and we are an expected 5-5 in hockey plays. Two games of note this evening. In NFL, Washington is interesting at +10 but is currently at 9 or 9.5 and will likely end up being a pass. I will think about it if it hits 10 again though. In hockey, only two games and I’m considering Edmonton at home to Montreal. All of the numbers point to the smart play being on Edmonton, I just would like a better price. It is up to 124 at Pinnacle but I really don’t know what I’m going to do with it. 9:30 start time so we will wait and see. Full Tuesday NHL schedule tomorrow.
UPDATE: I was very close but am going to ultimately pass on Edmonton
