Category: NFL
2018 Wild Card Playoffs and NFL Futures
Happy 2018 Playoffs! Been a crazy year with all the scoring……and this week’s 4 playoffs games are all very good, and for the most part, very unbettable. I will say the undefeated NFL Playoff Challenge will be very difficult this year (you essentially try to go 11-0 or undefeated ATS), especially in this round. For this reason, one prop I will take is “Will any fake punts be tried Wild Card Weekend? No -300*.
Before I get into this weeks’ games, I will say I am taking New Orleans to win the NFL at +120. I just don’t think they will lose in the Superdome now with homefield.
I will also preface below the bets I am taking with be with an asterisk * – I won’t bet every game, but I will make a pick for each one for our quest for perfection. First, the AFC:
Indianapolis +2.5
Hey, the annual “Houston 4:30pm Saturday “Special” (and by “special”, we mean, “suck ass game” people who start watching tap out by the 3rd quarter) is actually a good game this year! Indy is on a roll heading into this game, one of the hottest teams in the league behind a revived Andrew Luck and a defense playing well behind super rookie LB Darius Leonard. Houston’s defense is also decent, and this is DeShaun Watson’s first playoff game. I just think Houston is due for a loss for the first time in how many godly year’s they have played in this time slot. This line is now at +1….see alot of under 3 point lines as a theme here. Vegas has no idea who is winning these games, either.
Dallas -2
Seattle and Dallas is about as much of a toss up game I have seen in a WC game in a while. Dallas only has one blowout win this year (vs Jaguars). They run the ball well and the second best tackling team in the league. Seattle also runs the ball slightly worse, and are the best tackling team in the league. I will try to find a “total over punts” line – who knew Michael Dickson on the Seahawks would be a punting God? I do like the under 43.5 at -110* as this should be a rock fight decided in the final 2 minutes.
I am also throwing Seattle in a teaser with Indy at -110*.
Chargers +2.5
I hate taking the Chargers on the road on the East Coast, as they are due for Chargery things….but I have a hard time taking a rookie QB (Lamar Jackson) at home who is basically just a zone read QB at this point of his career. The Ravens also keep teams in game too long for that reason – they can’t cash in the red zone enough due to the lack of passing game. They beat LA earlier this year, but I can see LA making the adjustments and being a very tough out in the AFC bracket. Also, Phillip Rivers is due for a final run. I do like the over 42* as Melvin Gordon is back.
Philadelphia +6 (-110)*
My biggest play of the weekend. Giddy to bet against Mitch Trubisky in a playoff game! Granted, Nick Foles got hurt last week and we are also one hit away from the Nick Sudfeld Experience. The bears have the best defense in the tournament, but their offense keeps people in games…they also lost receiving TD leader A.Miller to an injury last weekend. I expect the Super Bowl champs to keep it close and even have a chance to win this one vs a young Bears team whose time will eventually come. BTW we have not one, but two, Andy Reid disciples coaching this game (peterson and Nagy)…expect the timeouts and game clock time to be set on fire a plenty.
Week 16 NFL
KC Chiefs at Seahawks Under 53.5 -110
+150 TEASER:
Indianapolis Colts -9
Dallas Cowboys -7
New Orleans Saints -6
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
Arizona +9
Way too many points. Both of these teams are bad
Oakland at Cincinnati Over 46 (-115)
Buffalo -3 (+100)
TEASER +150:
Baltimore Ravens -9
Seattle Seahawks -4
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
DFS:
Week 14 NFL, Army/Navy Under, UFC 231
NFL:
Oakland +10.5 (-105)
We have been betting against Oakland all year, including just shipping the Under season total (7.5 – thanks Lou!), but they are 2 in their last 3 ATS and we also get back on the “Bet against Big Ben on the road when he is a 6 or more favorite” trend that has worked out since 2015 (which is crazy). Also, the Steelers, losers of 2 of their last 3 (and really should be 3 if Doug Marrone wasn’t such a nit..at least the Jags covered) won’t have James Conner for this one, instead having a backup TE in Samuels carry the load at RB.
Los Angeles -14 (-110)
The Bengals suck. Also, the Chargers are playing darn well.
Chiefs vs Ravens Under 51
No K.Hunt, rookie QB for BAL, good defense in Baltimore…..probably a rock fight win for the Chiefs here
TEASER +140:
Miami +8
Kansas City -7
New Orleans -9
DFS:
NCAA:
Army/Navy Under 40 (-125)
This will probably crash to 36.5 or even lower before gametime. The UNDER has hit 12 times in a row in this game, and the also under has hit in all Commander-in-Chief darbys (Air Force, Navy, Army) this year.
UFC 231:
Shevchenko vs Joanna Fight Goes to Distance – YES @ -215
Week 13 NFL, SEC Championship, and Wilder/Fury
Arizona +14
Way too many points. Green Bay is playing like ass and they may hate their coach…and the QB, who has also had a bad year for his standards and also hates the coach. Also, Arizona’s front 4 is pretty fucking good…their offense is wretched, however.
Indianapolis -4.5
Luck vs Kessler. I choose Luck.
Jets at Titans Under 40.5 (-110)
Don’t watch this game
TEASER +130
New England Patriots -5
Houston Texans -6
Seattle Seahawks -10
DFS:
NCAA:
Alabama -12 (-110)
BOXING:
Wilder -160
I think this will be a fight where Fury, who had the moment of his life a few years ago with a win vs Klitschko, age and wear and tear shows vs a more athletic and powerful fighter. Fury is a load; he is the biggest man in the division but he is coming off various cocaine binges, gaining a shit ton of weight, and a mental health issue with 2 comeback KO wins vs heavyweight cans. If Fury was in form, he may of had a better shot….but Wilder has stayed active, and he knows a win here will guarantee a big payday vs Anthony Joshua to unify the heavyweight title and a chance to be ‘the baddest man in the world”. I like Wilder by either decision or a 11th round KO.
NFL Week 11
Giants at Eagles Under 48 (-105)
These offenses stink.
Bills ML +155
Barkley! Bortles! Jags vs Bills, feel the excitement! I actually think Barkley is an OK backup QB; not sure why the Bears canned him last year and gave $28 million to Sean Glennon. This ML is now at +140.
Parlay +190:
New England Patriots ML (-550)
Los Angeles Chargers ML (-1000)
Baltimore Ravens ML(-650)
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (-170)
DFS:
CFL Coupe de Grey:
Ottawa +5 (-110)
It’s Coupe de Grey day! The CFL’s most talented team (Calgary) meets the teams with the most depth (Ottawa). I like Ottawa to cover, but Calgary to win as this is the third straight time they have made it to the final and they are due for the W. Calgary wins on a late rouge, 29-28.
NFL Thanksgiving Gambling Stuffers
Atlanta at New Orleans Over 60.5 (-115)
Atlanta +13
Teaser (-110):
Atlanta +13
Dallas -7
DFS:
NFL Week 11
Arizona -3.5 (-120)
This is now at -5. The Raiders suck. Bet against them every week.
Panthers -4.5
Detroit also sucks.
Philly at New Orleans Under 57.5 (-110)
The Eagles have only scored more than 24 pts once this year.
Jacksonville +6
Steelers on fire but Big Ben on the road usually has issues covering big spreads.
TEASER (+140):
New Orleans Saints -9
Los Angeles Chargers -7
Tennessee Titans +3
DFS:
CFL PLAYOFF BONUS:
Calgary -4.5 (-110)
NFL Week 10
Kansas City -17 (EVEN)
Detroit +7 (-115)
Washington at Tampa Bay Over 51
TEASER (+140):
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
New England Patriots -7
Kansas City Chiefs -17
I’m also gonna keep an eye on the Buffalo vs NY Jets live lines only if Nathan Peterman starts and somehow gets a 3 or 6 pt lead or something and get the Jets down past the -7 they are currently because they aren’t playing that well either. Bet against Nathan Peterman every week you can, it won’t last #freemoney!
DFS:
NCAA:
Florida State +16.5 (-110)
