Miracle Covers

Week 2 NFL 2019

Miami +19 (-115)

This is a purely mathematical play, despite Miami sucking ass last week and all of their players wanting to leave, and NE looking like the clear SB favorite who just added Antonio “I Might Be a Rapist” Brown. I think reg season underdogs ATS of 18 or more have covered like 60+% of the time. If you see this list from 2013 alone, you’ll see most of the big favorites usually don’t cover these lines. I even recall attending a Pats game in 1992 vs the 49ers in their prime (Steve Young, Jerry Rice, etc) against one of the worst Pats teams in memory (2-14), and they even covered a -17.5 spread vs a vaunted 49ers unit. It was one of my first gambling memories even as an 11 year old because one of my dad’s friends, Mossy, was telling everyone and their mom to take the points (which i did on the parlay cards I’d help my mom fill out when I was young). “It’s too big; the Pats may suck, but these are professionals”. Add professional pride, a Patriots team that hasn’t won in 6 games in Miami, and a former Belichick assistant coaching…..play the math, take the points. I will add if Miami loses 59-10 or something stupid this week….they might go 0-16.

Baltimore -13 (EVEN)

Baltimore is going to be really good; they will challenge KC and NE for an AFC bye spot with the league’s #1 running game, and a solid defense and special teams, and an improved WR core. Arizona is coming off a tie (which Detroit’s awful coaching gave them), playing a 1pm start, with a rookie QB and coach on the road. Now here is a line which, IMO, should be -17.

Washington +6 (-110)

I didn’t wanna take the Washington (redacted), but 90% of the money is on the Cowboys, and as we discussed on this week’s podcast, if the line gets to 6, we should take this. Adrian Peterson was benched last week and pissed off the team, and Jay Gruden listened. He is also starting due to a injury to RB Darrius Guice, so he should be rested and motivated. Case Keenum is the QB, but he had a good game last week throwing to rookie WR Terry McLaurin with a road cover vs Philly. Everyone is hyping the Cowboys…which is when you should be betting against them.

Jaguars +9

This is now at +7.5, especially after this picture of rookie starting QB Gardner Minshew arriving in Houston:

Gardner Minshew arriving in Houston… 👀😎 pic.twitter.com/MtEVgcv5NQ

— SportsLine (@SportsLine) September 14, 2019

Texans’ HC Bill O’Brien will keep the Jags in the game. Also, DeShaun Watson is one hit to his back away from getting on IR. Texans simply need to protect him better if they have any shot this season.

Atlanta ML +115

This is now at EVEN. Getting plus odds on, what I think, is a coin flip game (a la last week with the Bills). Big game for both teams: Philly’s QB Carson Wentz was shaky last week in a win during a very pressure filled year, and especially for Atlanta HC Dan Quinn, who is coaching for his job at home on Sunday night.

49ers at Bengals OVER 46 (-115)

These teams stink, will be turnovers and awful special teams galore creating plenty of scoring opportunities.

TEASER (+170):

KC -7.5
DET +9
SF +1.5

DFS:

Week 1 NFL 2019

Carolina +3.5 (-125)

Ravens -7 (-105)

6.5 TEASER +135:

Ravens -7
Seattle -9.5
Eagles -9.5

DFS:

Championship Saturday

ECL Final:

Spurs v Liverpool Draw +275
First to score# Moura +800, Son +675

Stanley Cup Final:
Bruins at Blues UNDER 5 +125

Student Athletes/Gambling

My apologies if this is not an original idea.  I noticed that some states considering legalizing sports gambling are drawing the line at college sports.  You would be allowed to gamble on an NBA game, but not an NCAA game.  An idea in the “Should student athletes get paid” conversation, whatever non-professional sport events/activities a state deems “gambling worthy,” the participants in that event/activity are eligible to receive a fraction of the revenue generated from wagers made at authorized Books on that event.  That fraction of revenue gets divided among athletes attending institutions from states where that activity is “gambleable.”

You could do it as a percentage of money taken in on the event by the Books, or charge the gambler a small tax with any bet.  You would not make it tied to how much the Book won or lost on the event as obviously this would have shaving implications.  This would be a federal statute that once a state permits gambling on a specific non-professional athletic event, this tax or juice would have to be incorporated.  This would maintain the power of the legislature in deciding which events are gambling permissible, it would add zero costs to schools/universities, and it would be a legalized, supervisable way to pay athletes.   This would also solve the dilemma “does the backup center for Bucknell get paid the same as Johnny Manziel.”  Answer, he does, if his game generates as much gambling action as Manziel’s  (It will not).

Who among us hasnt kicked back with a beverage on a mid-Summer afternoon and gambled on a Little League World Series game?  If a state deems it worthy that a Little League game was “gambleable,” then yes, a portion of those wagers would be divided among those athletes.

Alabama plays UCLA in NCAAF.  Alabama has decided gambling on NCAAF is not permitted.  California has decided it is permitted.  The tax or juice collected from legal bets made at registered books on the event throughout the United States are divided among the UCLA athletes.

野球

MLB is making us hustle this year on Over/Unders.  Just the #s for now.  What immediately strikes me is the lack of significant juice in many of these.  Anything -125 or higher noted.

Arizona Diamondbacks : 75.5

Atlanta Braves : 86.5 (O -136)

Baltimore Orioles : 58.5

Boston Red Sox : 94.5

Chicago Cubs : 87.5

Chicago White Sox : 73.5

Cincinnati Reds : 78.5 (O -131)

Cleveland Indians : 90.5 (O -125)

Colorado Rockies : 84.5

Detroit Tigers : 68.5

Houston Astros : 96.5

Kansas City Royals : 69.5 (U -125)

Los Angeles Angels : 81.5 (O -136)

Los Angeles Dodgers : 93.5

Miami Marlins : 63.5 (U -135)

Milwaukee Brewers : 86.5

Minnesota Twins : 83.5 (O -133)

New York Mets : 85.5

New York Yankees : 96.5 (O -129)

Oakland A’s : 83.5

Philadelphia Phillies : 89.5

Pittsburgh Pirates : 77.5 (O -133)

San Diego Padres : 78.5 (U -126)

San Francisco Giants : 73.5

St Louis Cardinals : 88.5

Seattle Mariners : 71.5 (O -147)

Tampa Bay Rays : 84.5

Texas Rangers : 71.5 (U -126)

Toronto Blue Jays : 75.5 (U -150)

Washington Nationals : 88.5 (O -137)

Super Bowl LIII

The Big Game is here…what a season! Had a good playoff…..although the Saints bet really killed it from making it a GREAT playoff….fucking refs. Worse beat, ever IMO I have ever taken in a sports bet. Anyone, new day, new game…and a fun one it should be. Especially when it comes to PROPS!

MVP Bets:
Brady +140
Gronkowski +3000
Donald +1800

I usually pick 2 QBs…but I don’t think Goff will be the story for the game (he is not even the 3rd best player on the team). Brady always has a chance, even when he shouldn’t (like vs the Falcons where it should of went to James White). I will be betting Gronk heavy in this game; it’s slated to be his last ever, so I expect a great game from him vs a Rams LBs and safeties who have been awful vs Tight Ends all year. I also picked Donald because he’s arguably the best overall player in the NFL right now, and if the Rams win, it will probably be because he had a monster game.

Rushing Props:

Todd Gurley Rushing Yards Under 72.5 -135
CJ Anderson Rushing Yards Over 49.5 +110

Gurley’s obviously hurt with a knee and it is affecting his play. Shannon Sharpe attributed his drop that cause an INT last game specifically to him “not planting on the knee correctly because he was worried about getting hit”. I also expect Belichick to take this element away from the Rams when Gurley is in the game, as his defensive scheme is to take away what you do best. CJ Anderson’s over however (49.5 +110) does look tasty and I will jump on this too as once the Novocaine wears off for Gurley (it usually last a half), he should see the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half.

James White Rushing Yards Over 19.5 -110

I think they hand it off to him in the shotgun in this game. They were successful running inside traps out of the formation vs KC last week.

Receiving Props:

James White First to Catch +250
I expect something short and quick from the Pats offense to start the game. It will probably be something to the backs, and they have started each game featuring James White out of the base shotgun set this postseason.

Sony Michel Over Receptions 0.5 -102
The Pats ran the ball 29 out of the 34 snaps he was on the field; I expect a tendency breaker to keep the Rams off balance…also probably a screen to try and slow down the great Rams front 4 of Suh, Donald, Brockers, and Fowler.

Julian Edelman Over Receptions 7 -130
He has had a monster playoff…he’s probably cycled correctly before the postseason…ahem…TB12 diet….

TE Gerald Everett Over Receptions 2.5
Both teams are awful against the tight end and run lots of PA. Everett has been targeted 10 times in his last 4 games, catching half of them.

James Develin Over Receptions 0.5 +150
This is my biggest one…..he has caught a pass 3 out of the last 5 games. I also wanna take his First to TD prop (+5000)….but I am pretty sure Burkhead/Michel will get these short yardage carries in the red zone.

Passing Props:

First Play is a Pass +115
Easy bet each year; teams love something easy and quick to their QBs comfortable in the game, especially two aggressive offensive minds like McVay and McDaniels.

Tom Brady Over Passing Completions 25.5 -140
The only year it went under was the first Super Bowl in 2001.

Total Interceptions Over 1.5 -120
Seems like stealing; both Brady and Goff threw picks last game.

Punting Props:

Hekker Longest Punt Over 54.5 -125
The guy is a weapon and may also be the best thrower on his team. I would also bet the “Will Fake Punt be Attempted – No” as the Rams did it last game and I am sure Belichick is ready for that shit.

TD Props (anytime):

Gronkowski +900
He has scored a TD in every Super Bowl he has played except for the second Giants one, which he played on one leg.

Burkhead +115
Higbee +250
Snow Leopard!

and also:
Burkhead Last Touchdown Scorer +1000

Specials:
Will any player take a knee during the national anthem? No @ -450
Took this last year at -700. Just not the game to do it (although if anyone were, it would be Marcus Peters). This is also one of those bets I actually hope to lose because fuck Goodell and the NFL.

And finally, picks for the game:

Over 57
The last time the UNDER hit was Colts vs Saints (55.5) in 2009 I believe. There will be lulls in scoring in this one, but Super Bowls are known for cardio dumps with the long irregular pacing of halftime, as well as the pyrotechnics which affect breathing, especially for defensive players.

Patriots -1.5
I am done picking against them. They have played their best ball when it counted, and they are 100% healthy (minus Hightower getting sick this week). I think we often underrate fitness with a football team, and how sometimes a team which is less talented but more fit has more of an advantage that we think. Also, Tom fucking Brady.