Author: sean
How to turn $1 into $869
So, been a pretty bad week for me sports gambling the last week: I batted 0.233 in my NCAA bets, my brackets are cooked, and I missed all but 2 of my suggestions on this blog for NCAA this week. Thank god for poker lately, as I have been running hot.
However, amazing feat last night for the UFC Card in Brazil: Shogun vs Henderson 2.
I was playing some MTTs late last night and was going to watch the event while pokering. If you have followed my UFC bets here on the site, I’ve done very well with a 62% ROI on UFC bets YTD, including killing it on these Brazil cards since I always look for good odds for fighters FROM BRAZIL fighting guys who are NOT. Especially when they are underdogs…..they just fight jacked up and put on a great show for the home crowd.
I liked two fighters on the card: Fabio Maldonado +230 (a boxer with a granite chin) and Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525. For the Santos fight: not only had I not heard of the guy he was fighting (Ronny Markes….and I follow MMA pretty closely), the guy also missed weight by 5 FUCKING POUNDS. I’ll take the +525 (Thiago Santos beat him in the first round with a liver kick to the stomach).
I also did something fun: I parlayed 4 dogs in a $1 parlay that would pay out $188.24:
Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525
Fabio Maldonado +230
Michel “Trator” Richard Cunha Dos Prazeres +260 (his opponent grabbed the cage *4* times during the fight, resulting in 3 points taken away. I’ve never seen that before, even in WWF steel cage matches)
Leonardo Santos +230
Well wouldn’t you know it, the first 3 hit! So we had a great hedging opportunity with the last fight with Leo Santos, a Brazilian JiuJitsu Blackbelt who is the sensei for champions Henan Barao and Jose Aldo, versus Norman Parke, a Judo Olympic Team Member from Northern Ireland.
Parke was a -335 favorite (this encompasses ALL results, like No Contests), so I betted around that since we had around $80-$100 in hedging cash and -335 was too high to bet on the fight alone.
I took:
Parke to win via decision -150
Parke via KO (kick or punch standing) +400
Parke Inside Distance (submission/ground n’ pound TKO) +250
AND $10 on the draw at +7500
The fight itself, was awful. A grappler vs judo guy usually is a good stylistic matchup, but these guys just canceled each other out.
Parke was strong enough to hold Santos against the cage (therefore taking him away from his ground game with BJJ and establish octagon control), but didn’t have enough power in his fists to make significant damage to impress the judges or KO Santos.
Santos is very green striking and you can tell; but his wrestling defense (sprawl) is very good.
The referee was also awful, giving Parke a 1 point deduction for grabbing the shorts during a takedown in the second round (its usually just a warning, even if you pull the guys’ pants down). This was the type of fight that tilts the fuck out of Dana White, especially since it was 3rd to last fight and the card up to then was one of the best I’ve seen in the history of the promotion as 90% of the fights ended in a KO.
And wouldn’t you know it, the judges scored it 29-28 Santos, and 28-28 and 28-28, shipping us the draw! On top of that, and I didn’t even know this: for 2/3rds of the bets I made on this site, since the match ended as a draw in MMA, I also chopped that cash too! And it was….a miracle cover!
The amazing thing about this UFC card, sans this draw: EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG WON. I think if you parlayed all of the dogs on the card that night, it probably would of been 100,000-to-1. The type of shit that keeps a bookie up at night.
I now have some more money to set on fire at the WSOP in the summer, and I also now will take Winnipeg +150 tonight on the road. #whynot
Sunday Brunch Bets
NCAA:
Mercer +8 vs Tenn
Team full of seniors, high FG percentage, and Nancy Grace is an alumnus. Count me in!
NHL:
St.Louis v PIT Over 5.5 (+105)
St Louis clinched a playoff spot last night, so you *know* they were out drinking last night. Pittsburgh has scored 13 goals in its last 4 games. It’s a 1pm start and they might break the over themselves.
NCAA Bloodbath
I went a whopping 2-for-9 yesterday (I also took Lou’s Anaheim suggestion in NHL). 3 of the games I bet on went into OT lol
Thankfully, I qualified for a bonus to set some MORE money on fire today.
The only games I hit after being stuck 0-2 in the hole early were Harvard second half (I should of taken them for the entire game; Cincinnati got a technical for not including a substitution in their pregame sheet!) and MSU+Over in a teaser (with a great “miracle cover” moment…although not so much for our bettor below who had Delaware +13.5):
We'll this call and free throw cost me msu https://t.co/w3Qv2te167
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) March 20, 2014
Here are my picks today:
Teaser: UMass +5 and Under 137 vs Tennessee
Stanford +3
Teaser: VCU -6.5 and Over 136 vs Stephen F Austin
Providence vs UNC Under 143 (-105)
Updates:
Took Mercer 2H vs Duke and that went well. There are a few times a yr I get that shit-eating grin on my face throughout the entire day – Duke losing in the NCAA Tourney is one of them.
UMass is currently shitting the bed so I now take the Stanford and Mercer money and put it on Wichita St -16.5
Off to Beer Fest!
Early NCAA Day 1
Teaser: Ohio St -2 and Over 127 vs Dayton
St Joe’s +5 vs UConn
Western Michigan 1H +7.5
More degeneracy later. Hopefully I will get a miracle cover like this guy on Wheel of Fortune (I got one last night taking the under in the TN/IOWA game at 144…total finished at 143 in OT):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BobNg1-CSH4
First Bet of a Long Journey
Xavier -4 (and in teaser with Under 140) vs NC State
Well have our shining moments later in the week.
Cue the music (and sing to yourself, “Bad Decisions……Bad Decisions……Gambling Irresponsibly!!!):
BTW a PSA from Canada:
Luck of the Irish
So Miracle Covers contributor (and Suns fan) Nick and I went to the Celtics game last night vs the Suns. The story of the night wasn’t the miracle cover that happened at the end of the game, where the Suns went on a 10-0 run in the final 1:30 to beat the Celtics 87-80 (and cover the -4.5 point spread) as the Celtics chucked up wild shots like it was the final seconds of a Pop-A-Shot run.
The *real* story (and incredibly tilting) for me was losing the half time beer bet with Nick on the 10th graders (all white kids….so it was evenly handicapped). We got back to our seats late from a beer run and saw his team, the Green team, hit a set-shot 3……so he set the line at -2.
My team, the White team, then went on a 11-6 run with 1 minute to go (thanks to having the tallest kid on the court who grabbed so many rebounds maybe the Celtics should look at signing him). Then, out of nowhere, the Green team scores 6 points in the span of 20 seconds, mostly on long shots I couldn’t hit at that age on a regular basis………including hitting a meaningless 3 at the buzzer despite being up one when they had the ball and the last shot. I yelped in agony, Nick raised his arms in victory, and everyone in our section was looking at us like we had two heads as I am yelling furiously at these poor children, “Pass the ball! Rotate! Box Out! Forward!”.
Yes folks, we have a gambling problem (and yes, like most of those in the stadium, you probably bought a Mega Millions ticket too, you degenerates!).
And it was….a miracle cover.
Today’s bets:
NCAA:
NC State +9.5 (-105) vs Duke
St Bonaventure vs St.Josephs Under 142.5 (-115)
UFC 171:
Diego “The Dream” Sanchez vs Myles “Fury” Jury Under Rounds +200; Fight does not go distance +170 (try to watch Diego fight if you can, the guy is simply an animal. He always puts up good fights too, with 7 Fight of the Night awards, because the guy just goes forward, no hands up).
Alex “The Dominican Nightmare” Garcia wins fight -400 (good prospect)
Hector Lombard vs Jake Shields fight goes distance EVEN (These guys are both wrestlers, so that means alot of grabbing and hugging and all out boringness)
Robbie “Ruthless” Lawyer wins by Inside Distance +400 (a speculative play vs Johny Hendricks, but we are getting good odds on a guy who has been knocking out people since 2005)
Sunday Degeneracy
NHL:
Detroit ML +140 at NYR
I also might take the Bruins/Panthers under 5.5 at -130
NBA:
Bulls +9 and Under 191.5 Teaser vs MIA
BTW here is some more Canuck fail:
Soccer and UFC Saturday
Here’s are my plays for today:
UFC London:
Danny “The Cheesecake Assassin” Mitchell +190 (I have no idea who this guy is, but great nickname!)
Omari Akhmedow +265 (This guy I do know, another Dagestan Sambo killer. He shouldn’t be this big of a dog)
Soccer:
Tottenham +1 (even) and Draw +330
Also, to answer Lou’s question why things maybe falling apart in Vancouver, this episode from John Tortarella in Calgary a few months back may explain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCeuJPhrt8E
UFC 170
Here are my UFC 170 plays:
Stephen “The Wonderboy” Thompson wins inside distance +200 and the fight does not finish at -105
Demian Maia wins by decision +400
Ronda Rousey vs Sara McMann Over 1.5 rounds at -170
Overall good month sports betting, but bad month of poker. I wish we could bet on the Olympics all year!
Wednesday Hockey
3-0 yesterday, we’ll ride the hot streak today with:
Czech v USA Over 5.5 (+115)
USA -1.5 @ -120 (part of this coming from hedge from our Czech 10-to-1 Gold medal bet).
Also slightly tilted I missed an alternate over bet, 3.5 @ +165 Swiss v Lativa (they weren’t going to be 1-0 games forever, the 5.5 over was at +365!) and of course, Lou’s hot streak in curling. The guy is a stone savant.
