Author: sean
Tuesday
I also have the Over in the Czech/Slovakia game (5.5 at +180 and 4.5 at EVEN).
Also taking FC Barcelona today at +125 vs Man City.
And now, here’s your Norwegian Curling Pants recap:
http://www.bloguin.com/theapparty/2014-articles/january/the-norwegian-curling-pants.html
TJ Oshie
I’ve never seen a guy take 6 straight penalty shots before. He was so composed; almost stuff you see on the pond (because he was so slow and deliberate) not in actual NHL-sytle shootouts. For Russia, that Datsyuk guy….he’s pretty good. The USA now (4-to-1) are serious Gold medal favorites, IMO.
Bets today:
Olympic Hockey:
Czech/Swiss Over 4.5 (-120). We hit our benchmark, and as good as the Swiss have played defensively in this tournament, I actually think they’ll be able to open up their offensive game vs the defense-less Czechs. It’s a pretty big game for both teams. Someone wins 3-2 here.
UFC (in Brazil):
Quick Hits
Norway +2.5 (-110) vs Finland
Finland looked like crap vs the Austrians last game. Captain Teemu Selanne is playing at 75% and Tuukka Rast, who gave up 4 goals, has been shaky all year. I expect this to be a close game.
Canada/Austria Under 7.5
Too many goals. I expect Austria to pack it in and not go forward to keep it close versus a talented Canada team. I also don’t know how they score goals vs Canada (the Fins were just awful on defense last game). Austria gave up 8 goals last game but that’s an outlier IMO.
Also glad I didn’t take the Czech/Lativa over 6.5 (-145). The books’ adjusted. There was also an alternate line at 5.5 at -225, but that was too much juice. Basically, any game that the Czechs play should have 6 goals total in them either way. That’s our bench mark.
Over Czech
Small play today on Czech Rep v Sweden Men’s Hockey Over 5.5 (-105).
I also have Jared Lorenzen over 3.5 hot dogs today on his couch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHdivRyIVTA
Saturday Stuff
Colorado at NY Islanders Over 5.5 (-115)
DET (+105) at TB
Toronto -1.5 (+200) vs VAN
And our soccer “OWN GOAL OF THE YEAR, MAYBE THE CENTURY” goes to:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36teaTN6O1s
Set it and Forget it Bets
That’s basically what West Coast bets are….especially to us folk who got to wake up in the A.M. It’s also what makes Vegas so dangerous (you can get a full slate of degeneracy in before 10 and then hit up some Steak and Eggs at Bill’s for $6. FROM WHAT I HEAR).
We like tonight:
Dallas (+155) at SJ (Lou Special)
Miami Heat (PK) at LAC (LeBron James in a pick’em? #whynot)
BTW the Cavs lost to the Lakers, 119-108….the same Lakers who dressed only 8 players tonight, and only 5 players in the 4th Quarter.
That’s right, 5 players.
The Lakers’ Robert Sacre fouled out but since the Lakers didn’t have anyone to replace him, he had to stay on the floor after a Technical Foul, and LA would be given a Tech for every foul he committed thereafter. The Cavs shouldn’t feel bad, as they are the worst power play team in the league behind the New York Rangers.
Amazing hilarity.
This pic of Pat Darts……erm……Chris Kaman (who fouled out after 14 minutes!)….. says it all:
Olympic Hockey Preview
Just scored a free Olympic bet from Bovada for betting (too much) money on the Super Bowl. We had Seattle (like most of America I’d assume) and so did Lou’s dad. The game wasn’t even close, and the oddsmakers were spot on having Peyton Manning throw a pick at -180 to as high as -230 (disclaimer: we took the juice).
We will choose hockey, as I just don’t know enough about Johnny Weir’s figure skating form to make an opinion about that.
I think Canada is the most talented team in the tournament. I just don’t think their goaltending (Price starts, Luongo is backup) is good enough.
Russia will find a way to fuck it up. They always do. Plus, they are properly hedged with the Russian mafia in any order. Ovechkin will probably win Golden Goal.
I will be rooting hard for the USA; we have the best goaltending (Quick, Miller) but unfortunately in these “open” Euro rinks, they lack the skaters on the outside to create opportunities to score. There are also more penalties called in Olympic play, not good for the physical (read: “slower”) teams. Also, I still don’t know why Okposo didn’t make the team.
Sweden is sneaky good. Lundquist won a Gold back in Torino, proving once more that he’s a capable and clutch goalie against all teams not named, “The Boston Bruins”. I’d probably be more bullish if they didn’t lose Franzen.
The Swiss could actually make it out of their group. That’s a good prop bet.
The Czechs have 4 good lines. They also have 2 40 year olds who didn’t play defense in their primes (Nedved, Jagr), nevermind now, skittish goaltending…… and Tomas “Olay” Kaberle. We will be hammering their individual overs. They’ll score goals, though.
I think the Czechs do however make the final 4….and we can then hedge if they do. So Czechs at 10-to-1 it is.
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4:00a
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Canada
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Russia
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Sweden
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USA
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Czech Republic
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Finland
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Switzerland
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Slovakia
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Norway
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Latvia
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Austria
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Slovenia
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Executive Decisions
NCAA: UCONN -13 vs Houston
Teaser: UCONN -13 and LA Clippers at Golden State Over 213
Super Bowl stuff later in the week*
*Preview: I’m taking Pete Carroll to beat Peyton Manning in a big game and I am completely fucking terrified.
UFC on FOX 10
Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens vs Darren Elkins Under Rounds 1.5 @ +155
Sergio “The Phenom” Pettis wins by Inside Distance +185
Darren “The Detroit Superstar” Cruckshank vs Mike “The Wolverine” Rio Fight Goes Distance +190
Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga to win +200
Benson “Smooth” Henderson -300
I also think Pat Darts got drunk in the Mr.Met costume:
NFC Championship
We have Seattle in an 11-to-10 bet to win the NFC (took this right after they beat the Saints on MNF). They have made the championship game, and now we have some great hedging opportunities with their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers (who I think are the most talented team left in this tournament, and have been my main bankroll builder in Dec/Jan).
My prediction? SF 20, Seattle 17.
Bets include:
Super Bowl futures:
SF vs DEN +250
SF vs NE +600
Teaser:
SF (+3) and NE (+4)
SF (+3) and Under (40)
Lines:
SF ML +150
FYI……As a warning Sunday for those who wish to take the Broncos (-4):
