Author: sean

FIFA World Cup 2014

Posted in Soccer - 2014/06/11 - 0 Comment

A quick run down of my leans on the groups (lines from Caesar’s Palace):

Group A:

Brazil 1/4

Mexico 6/1

Croatia 8/1

Cameroon 25/1

My picks: Brazil to win the group (and 2/1 they win the whole thing), and Croatia to move onto the knockout round.  Cameroon to make it to the second round isn’t a bad play, either.  I have no faith in Mexico.  Their coach looks like he’s on meth and was on an episode of “True Detective”:

¡Me estoy volviendo loco hombre!

Group B:

Spain 2/7

Netherlands 5/2

Chile 9/2

Australia 25/1

My picks: Netherlands to win, Spain to move onto the second round.   Australia might not score a goal.

Group C:

Colombia 2/3

Japan 7/2

Ivory Coast 9/2

Greece 10/1

My picks: Japan to win, they are always a solid team and played well in Brazil last summer.  Colombia to move onto the second round.

Group D:

Italy 3/2

Uruguay 8/5

England 2/1

Costa Rica 18/1

My picks: Toughest group to predict.  I like Italy to win and Uruguay to move on (sorry Putland; I have a bet that the US will score more goals than UK #moneyonfire); England isn’t fit but Suarez also isn’t 100%.  Don’t be surprised to see Costa Rica pull off a shocker upset here, too in one of the games.  They are feisty.  Edison Cavani for Uruguay for Golden Goal is my *reach* pick (33/1).

Group E (totally forgot about E yesterday!):

France -125

Switzerland +250

Ecuador +400

Honduras +2800

My picks: I like France to win, and Switzerland to advance.  I also like Franc Ribery at -2800 to get caught with an underage Brazilian hooker

Group F:  

Argentina 2/9

Bosnia 13/2

Nigeria 9/1

Iran 30/1

My picks: Argentina to win (also have them 11/2 to be runner up to Brazil); Nigeria to be second (reluctantly…they need to play better defense).  Messi is due for a run, and he’s my Golden Goal pick (7/1).  I have no idea who plays for Bosnia or Iran.

Group G:

Germany 5/9

Portugal 5/2

Ghana 10/1

USA 6/1

My picks: Portugal to win, USA to finish second.  The Germans are not fit (if they were I might pick them to win)……if the US loses to Ghana, the Black Stars will finish second IMO.  The key for the US, as Lou would say, can be summarized in one word: FORWARD.

Group H:

Belgium 1/2

Russia 2/1

South Korea 6/1

Algeria 30/1

My picks: Belgium a.k.a “Everybody’s Dark Horse” to win, South Korea to finish second…..they play well as a team.

End it here with two great videos on the top moments from the World Cups’ past (long):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGBuwL6hWSo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5AbVK-bpwU

 

 

 

 

Because its the Cup

Posted in Hockey - 2014/06/09 - 0 Comment

I like the Rangers -160 and -1.5 at +195 tonight vs LA

Spurs

Posted in Basketball - 2014/06/05 - 0 Comment

No, not those Spurs, we like money.

Taking the Spurs -5 tonight.

 

Last Day

Posted in Baseball, Other Sports - 2014/06/03 - 0 Comment

Disappointing bubbling the WSOP Millionaire Maker (I finished 50 out of the money, Ace King losing to 98 of diamonds on 36675 board), but sports betting (thank you, Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics) and other degenerate ventures have been very profitable (I bet against the Red Sox just b/c Lackey was on the mound.  Then I took that win and tripled it at the roulette table in 10 minutes), including a nice score at the Aria, winning a $125 tournament of over 287 players:

I also won a seat to the WPT $565 Deepstack Aria Open, which means I’ll be back here in July.  Just in time for football futures (and bankroll leaks).

This is how good the trip has ended: after busting out of the Millionaire Maker on my way through the Bellagio, I find a $100 bill on the ground (which later was put in parlay that hit).  Now THAT is a miracle cover!

Here are my picks today:

Mets EVEN

PHI/WSH over

 

Survivor

Posted in Baseball, Basketball, Hockey, UFC - 2014/06/01 - 0 Comment

Pretty good day for me yesterday, despite me losing the Thunder bet (I ended up being quartered as I also too the over, but missed teaser/line/ml).  The buzz in the WSOP at the end of the game was kinda neat though.  Of the many moments that you take away from Vegas, the random guy going, “YEAH!” at any time for the various result he is desiring is truly a great, positive, human feeling of elation, relief, and joy.  Who needs shrinks and prozacs when you have miracle cover run good to turn that frown upside down!  I will say: I abhor the cigarette culture here.  I’m surrounded by cig butt ash no matter where I go, which in a sense is a fun ironic metaphor for the ashes of the millions of dollars being set on fire in Vegas, ON A DAILY basis.

For yesterday, I went 3-1: missing the White Sox at +105…..but hit a UFC play (CB Dollaway +150), the Orioles at +110, the Athletics at -120, and those 3 in a parlay that paid out 10 to win 127.  I also made it to Day 2 of the WSOP Millionaire Maker NLHE tournament with 18.2k in chips.  Not bad for a “day”s work”.

Things I like today:

Blackhawks/Kings Under 5 at -105 (Game 7, I expect the best from these two goalies)

Blue Jays/Royals Under 8.5 -110 (Buerhle has pitched well lately)

Cubs +128

Giants +100

A’s -142 (I might also look at taking them winning the AL at some point, they are due.   I’ll need to look at this more, and hope I won’t be able to because that will mean I am still playing poker or $1.3 million dollars)

Leave you with this interesting nugget on Spurs futures for the title:

 

Vegas Thunder

Posted in Baseball, Basketball - 2014/05/30 - 0 Comment

First dispatch from Vegas and the WSOP here…..had a good cash game session last night, and when I checked into my room, the floor I was staying on, smelled like a rap concert.  Good karma, indeed.

I’m going to take all of the profit I made from poker and put it on the Thunder -3 (now -3.5 and moving quick), as well as tease them with the over 207, all at -110.

I like the Thunder for 4 reasons:

1) They are the second best scoring team at home, behind the Warriors.  They have won 22 out of their last 24 games at home.  This means Ibaka doesn’t have to play much/well to make a difference like he will have to in a potential Game 7.

2) The Spurs are old and old teams tend to not do so well on the one day turnaround.  The Celtics during the Garnett years were famous for this.

3) “The Game 6, down 3-2 at home” bet theory I have which has been pretty +EV for me over various sports in my betting years.   They also got blown out last game.  Teams usually respond with their backs against the wall here.

4) The NBA fix is in.  The Heat/Pacers series has been a snorefest, with the only story off interest being Lance Stevenson affectionately blowing into LeBron’s ear. This has been a home-and-home series.  The NBA needs that Game 7 revenue,  and I smell either Duncan enemy Joey Crawford or Dick Bavetta getting called out of the bullpen here.

I also like the Mets +116 tonight against the Phillies.  Their starting pitcher Montero can no where be as bad as this guy:

Scenes from 50 Cent’s new video, “In Da Dugout”, featuring Chuck Knoblauch

Funny part is, 50 Cent was reportedly throwing strikes in warm-ups, just like the Mets’ bullpen.

Thunder Dome

Posted in Basketball, Hockey - 2014/05/27 - 0 Comment

I like the Thunder tonight -2.5 (-105) vs the Spurs to tie things up 2-2 in the series.  Also made a speculative play at Thunder +536 to win the series when down 0-2……but they got Ibaka back.  He’s the difference, because he can actually guard Duncan 1v1 (Perkins is OK individual defender, but he’s mostly a great “plug” team defender).

I just have this feeling that Durant and James are going to meet again, and I’ll be giddy for it all as I have the Heat pre-season to win the title, and I’ll get some freeroll action like I did last weekend in the UEFA Champions League Final when Real Madrid beat Putty’s Atletico (I would have posted the amount of stuff I bet to hedge on here last Saturday, but I am afraid I would have broke the site and drowned out all of the content Lou has posted.  I also think at one point a “Real to win at -170 and Blackhawks/Kings Under” parlay may have happened.  It was that degenerate).

I’ll be in Vegas next week for the WSOP and will be posting UFC and World Cup thoughts.

I’ll leave you with this nugget for Pat Darts and the NY Rangers:

 

 

NFL Draft thoughts

Posted in NFL - 2014/05/05 - 0 Comment

Looked online today and saw that Clowney is -425 to be #1 in the draft; the field is at +325 and Manziel is +150 to be top 5.  I kinda like the last two to be quite honest, especially with the trade talk involved.  It’s May and I’m already betting on NFL……that’s how adverse I am to betting on baseball.

With the WSOP coming up, here’s some advice from Raul Ibanez on when to fold:

Marathon Parlay

Posted in NFL - 2014/04/21 - 0 Comment

Parlaying the Mets (-105 vs St L) and Red Sox (-160) today at +175.

Fun tidbit on Red Sox Marathon Day gambling history (it’s windy today too):

If only to do so just for an excuse to post this picture:

One Shining (Gambling) Moment

Posted in Basketball - 2014/04/05 - 0 Comment

Final Four today……gonna be two really good games for a really good tournament and the most watched ever.

Since Lou inquired about this early in the week:

I’ll take UK -1 vs Wisconsin.  I think they have the best talent left.  Team is another story.

I also like UConn +6.5 vs Florida and I’ll also prob put them and UK in a teaser too*.

*I don’t feel bad about that last sentence being a risky bet b/c of the shear volume of baseball degeneracy below me.

Running for yo life!

Good luck today