Month: December 2014
Tuesday
0-2 yesterday as both our plays lost by alot alot. I would have played Florida who won in a shootout but was out Christmas shopping. Only one game on our list today and it’s a go: Carolina +132 @ New Jersey
One bowl game since I missed the early one which had the temerity to kickoff at 6:00pm: Navy +3.5 -112
Monday
Not the best day yesterday as Chicago covered but failed to win outright or hit the over due to some dreadful red zone offense. Tampa was also a loser for everything except a top draft choice but I am pretty sure we were on the “correct” side there. Props to Sean for a near-perfect day, pushing on Cleveland/Carolina and winning everything else. No NFL action tonight but one NHL play so far:
Nashville @ Columbus +135
Florida and Arizona are on the shortlist for later and I’ll likely end up with a decision very close to game time.
In amateur football, we had some late action I didn’t even have time to post because someone deemed it a good idea to have a bowl game kickoff at 2pm on a non-holiday Monday. BYU lost in double overtime after setting a chance to drive for a late game winning field goal on fire when their coach used two timeouts to defend an extra point. Memphis’s kicker then hit a 55-yard field goal to send the game to overtime number two after which the BYU players realizing they could not beat their coach with a gatorade jug started a riot instead.
Some more mediocre numbers for you on the season:
NFL: 16-15 +4.35
NHL: 29-34 +2.56 (not including tonight’s action)
NBA: 9-10-2 -1.56
Bowl Season: 1-4 -2.12
UPDATE: Columbus is not doing terribly well currently down 2-0. Arizona +170 @ Vancouver in the late game
Sunday
Our NHL streak continued yesterday with a 2-1 evening and we’re now up to 10 in a row ending in a shootout loss or win. Bowl games were 1-3 and the late NBA game pushed/lost. I am slow getting together here with NFL this morning. Lots of potential plays coming off the board and I missed out on Washington yesterday by forgetting which day the game was being played. One confirmed play so far Detroit/Chicago OVER 43.5
UPDATE: Sticking with the Bears along with no one in America. Bears +10 -115, +375 to win outright
Let’s add Tampa +11.5 -105
UPDATE 2: Not the best afternoon. Some NBA because I’m an idiot: Detroit +2.5, +115 @ Brooklyn
Buzzed and Fiesty
This is my big bet for the year. And the other ones are big (thats what she said) because I am stuck.
Dolphins -3.5 -110 @ 80
Bears +9 +100
Panthers -4 -105
Under Jets/Pats 47 -103
NFL Week 16
Carolina -4
Newton is playing today, they are at home, still in the NFC South fail title hunt, and most importantly, I get to keep betting against Johnny Manziel!
Oakland +7 (-120)
Way too many points vs Buffalo, who have a great defense but Kyle Orton as QB. Both of Oakland’s wins have come at home. As Miracle Covers contributor and Bills fan Nick told me last night…..if you bet the Bills getting a TD in any situation, you deserve to lose your money. They’ll probably win the game by a FG, 16-13, if i had to guess an exacta.
Atlanta +6 (-105)
This game will be decided by a FG; historically these two teams have always played close games, no matter the record. Also for an inside track to the NFC South title…so expect a playoff style, grind it out game. Julio Jones is also active for the Dirty Birds.
IND vs DAL Under 55
A lot of point for a pretty important game for both teams, and their horses (Hilton for IND, Murray for DAL) are banged up and may not play. As a side note, our boy Cousin Sal gave me a shout out in this week’s prop bets column!
Seattle -8
It’s Ryan Lindley (who in his last start vs Seattle, lost 58-0. He’s also never thrown a TD pass in his career in 151 straight passing attempts) vs Russell Wilson. I pick Russell Wilson.
TEASER:
Seattle -8 and NE -11
As Bill Simmons mentioned in his last column, ” If you lose, you do so to either Geno Smith or Ryan Lindley (vs Brady and Wilson). Acceptable odds.” You can also throw any 3rd team of your choice; ideas for that third team? DET -9, KC +3, CAR -4.
Shitty Bowl Game Saturday
As mentioned, I’m going to pick every bowl game this season here and have plays on 65-75% The first game seems designed to have as a small an audience as possible, the New Orleans Bowl which kicks off at 10:00 am local time. It has the added benefit of being completely unbettable. I’ll be at brunch, thank you. Picking UL Lafayette because I have to pick someone. In fact, I won’t be watching any of these games if at all possible, since betting and watching are mutually exclusive activities. The remaining picks for today:
UTEP + 10 vs. Utah St.
Utah vs. Colorado St. +2.5
Western Michigan -2 vs. Air Force
South Alabama vs. Bowling Green +2.5
In NHL our strong week continued as all three leans were good. The Devils even won in a shootout, which is more rare than seeing a rainbow and a unicorn on the same day. Philly, Nashville and Carolina makeup the shortlist for tonight.
UPDATE: All of the previous teams mentioned for NHL make the list for tonight:
Philadelphia +150 @ Toronto
Rangers @ Carolina +130
Nashville +115 @ Minnesota
I don’t understand the Nashville line at all with Rinne in net tonight. Also forgot to check who was playing NFL today as Washington was on my shortlist for this weekend. Also some NBA because I’m an idiot, Indiana +3, to win +130 @ Denver
Friday
Panthers were a winner in a shootout last night to keep our excellent week going. It doesn’t look like there will be any plays this evening with New Jersey, Islanders and Winnipeg being the options from 5 games this evening. Amateur tackle football plays starting tomorrow with any other requisite NHL action.
Thursday
A much needed 2-0 day for us yesterday as both Boston and Dallas were winners. We are close to breakeven on the season. Single play tonight: Florida +122 @ Philadelphia. Fun fact, the Flyers have won 11 games this season and I think we’ve been against them in 9 of them.
Slight lean on Jacksonville tonight though over the past two years that’s been about as useless as shorting the stock market.
Good luck this evening.
Wednesday
0-2 for a -2.3 night as both our plays lost in shootouts, Washington epically so in the longest shootout in NHL history. I was highly disappointed the goalies were not required to shoot like in soccer.
One confirmed and one likely play tonight:
Boston +130 @ Minnesota
Waiting a bit on Dallas +150 @ Vancouver. Will update later as it’s a 10:00 east coast start.
UPDATE: Playing Dallas we’ll see if it’s 145 or 150
UPDATE 2: Dallas +145
Tuesday
1-1 yesterday as both teams had a one-goal advantage after 2 periods last night, good for a 70/30 or so edge. NHL teams are 83% in total to win when leading after 2. Both teams ended up in shootouts with the expected 1-1 outcome for a small win. Ultimately disappointing as we were potentially on for a +3u evening. Two more games for us this evening:
Washington -130 @ Florida
Boston +130 @ Nashville
We are a disappointing 24-31 -0.74 on the season to date. Some of our other standings:
NBA: 9-9-1 -0.6
NFL 15-12 +5.85
Lastly I’m planning on participating heavily in amateur football bowl season. I’ve come around to the fact that while I have zero interest in watching any college football, it can still be profitable nonetheless. We’ll see if this holds true over the next few weeks.
