Month: December 2014
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
Wednesday
Nothing at all this evening. Washington and New Jersey were losers and Carolina held on to win 2-1. 19-23 -1.1 on the hockey season. Full slate tomorrow
Tuesday
Last night’s MNF game was an exercise where no one won who watched the game, so taking the points and then watching CSI and/or falling asleep was the +EV in life move. NHL gets going in about 20 minutes so I’ll keep this short. One play tonight which is Vancouver @ Washington -115. Two other games which are worthy of your consideration are New Jersey +180 @ Pittsburgh and Carolina +120 hosting Nashville. I’m only at breakeven on this hockey season after the recent downswing and hopefully will get back on the plus side soon
Monday
It’s currently raining and the temperature is steadily dropping in New York this evening, so get ready for some additional fumbling! Jets are the play tonight if you can find +7, though I am personally passing even if it gets there. As mentioned Tampa was a winner yesterday but somehow conspired to only cover and not win outright.
Nothing doing in hockey tonight thankfully, though Tampa @ Rangers should at least be good to watch. NBA because I’m an idiot:
Minnesota +15 @ Clippers
MNF
NFL:
Jets vs Dolphins Under 42
My god what a boring game. 62% of O/U bets on the Over
NHL:
Canadiens/Avalanche OVER 5.5 (+115)
