Month: November 2013

Monday

Fun day yesterday with lots of winners, hope some of you were able to follow along.  Only the late, late play on Minnesota and teaser were losers thanks to the Falcons getting back to their heritage and losing horribly at home for no real reason at all.  I doubled up on the Miami play and long time readers know that the Chargers are my 2nd favorite team to bet against (Dallas being #1) so that was an added bonus.

One NFL game tonight and Carolina is the side to be on.  The line unfortunately won’t be moving off of 3, so I will most likely pass, but the game opened at 1 and anything up to 2.5 would be good value.  Not a guarantee by any stretch, but at the very least there is no compelling reason to take New England.

There should be at least one and maybe even two hockey games tonight.  I’ll update later in the evening.  Season totals below…

Tracking plays in NCAA hoops are down to 0-2-2 -2.2

NCAA Hoops Totals are 2-0 +2.0  Those are real plays, albeit not for a whole lot relative to the other sports.

NCAA Football: 7-8 -1.37

NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6

NHL 8-7 +4.01

NFL: 10-5 +5.31

EDIT: Calgary is the only hockey play tonight Flames +135

 

Sunday Funday

Two winners yesterday as Miss St. and the basketball under both easily covered and a push again on the tracking basketball play.

Lots of NFL plays today:

Miami +2.5 (Adding onto Miami +1 from yesterday)

Buffalo +2.5

Pittsburgh +3

Bookmaker garbage teaser: ATL +8.5, Buffalo +8.5, Denver -1.5

College Hoops:

Stony Brook +12.5

Michigan/Iowa State Under 148

NHL:

Columbus +145 @ Ottawa

UPDATE: NFL Minnesota +13

Saturday

Just waking up and there are games starting already.  This must be what it feels like to live on the west coast.

College football: Probably no plays for me today.  I am tempted by Louisville & Miss. St but don’t like the Bookmaker lines per usual.

EDIT: Taking Miss. St. +24 -112

College hoops: Florida Atlantic was a close loser yesterday losing by 33.  One more fake play today, St. Joseph’s +4

BONUS: A real play! OSU/Marquette Under 144

NHL: Edmonton will be a play depending on where the public number ends up.  10:00 East coast time to I’ll update or not later tonight.

NFL: There will be plays tomorrow, and I’ve already got some action down on Miami+1 and Miami EVEN as that’s definitely the best play of the week.

Weekend Picks

NFL:

Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)

Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)

Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)

Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)

I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins.  But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.

UFC:

Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130

 

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250

Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:

 

NCAA Plays

As always, I will likely to be adding to these throughout the day.  Our Indiana over pick is in dire straits.  They are going to beat Illinois to finish the season, which gives them 5, but to hit 6 they are going to have to beat either Wisconsin (slim) or Ohio St (none).  I know there is nothing they like better at a school like Wisconsin then to cover the spread, I know IU is missing their best running back, I know the defense couldn’t tackle a 2nd grade math assignment.  Let’s call this going down with the ship.

Indiana +27 -112 @ 19

In other plays, Florida St, at some point this season has to not cover a spread.  They have been demolishing it consistently.  You could almost see the point in the Miami game where they hit it and everyone on the Seminole sideline who knows whats up leaned back and smiled.

Syracuse +37.5 -109 @ 17

What is more embarrassing, letting someone borrow your computer and seeing a horrific stream of porn search queries or a series of search queries headed by “akron umass preview?”  As I said, likely more picks to follow.

Friday

We bet and/or didn’t bet on a bunch of pushes and coin flips yesterday.  Indy Miracle Covered or Miracle Pushed depending on your line.  I ended up passing but my comments make me look smart so I’ll try not to get injured patting myself on the back.  William and Mary pushed on +17, scoring only a single point in the last four minutes.  Columbus lost to Boston in overtime and Tulsa covered losing by 11.

More nothingness in hockey tonight, and there’s nothing particularly close either with the public numbers just not lining up with what I like to see.  One tracking play in hoops and it’s Florida Atlantic +31 at Duke.  We’re 0-0-1 to start the season but unlike the NHL, we don’t get any loser points.  I’m hoping for a push again tonight.

Amateur football and other things tomorrow.

Thursday

I’m still under the weather, so pardon more than the usual lack of cohesion…

NFL tonight is Colts @ Titans.  Everyone is on Indy by a 4.5:1 ratio, but the line has moved around quite a bit this week between TEN +1 and TEN +3.  It’s currently at 2.5.  If I can find 3 I’ll take Tennessee, but if not I will pass.  I could be convinced to take the Titans in a smaller play and/or in any picks contests should they be available.

NHL has one game that is on the fence that I’m going to play and that’s Columbus +155 @ Boston.  I would prefer the total to be 5.5 instead of 5, but that’s never going to happen with Boston’s league best defense, but I will let the 13% public betting number and reverse line move take priority here.  Plus we haven’t had a play in nearly a week.

“Amateur” College Football, I would take Tulsa tonight at 14 but not 13.5 or 13.  Not going to stick around withing on the line to move on that.

Lastly, College Basketball, I don’t know how to bet these but I will track my plays here as best I can.  One to start with tonight, William & Mary +17

Good luck out there.

Wednesday

Not much doing for me the past week.  Kudos to Pat for running the liveblog for an impressive 24 hours.  I will attempt to get in on betting basketball at some point.  My current spreadsheet model is pretty garbage and I’m having a hard time getting old point spread data imported, so anything for now is going to be testing more than anything else.

In housekeeping, NFL and NCAA turned out to be mediocre after winners all around on Thursday and our NHL play was a loser as well.  There were no hockey plays on Monday or Tuesday, and none again today despite all the teams being in action.

NFL 7-4 +1.91

NFL Teasers 1-2 -1.2

NCAA 6-8 -2.37

NHL 7-6 +3.56

NCAA Marathon Live Blog

Over the next day or so the NCAA is doing their 24 hour marathon tip-off deal.  I am going to live blog this as much as possible.  Am I going to fall asleep at points?  1,000%.  Will I be drinking casually throughout, you betcha.

21:15 EST

I am currently watching MNF while sipping on a St Ides.  The glamor.  I was speculating on what job Schiano will have this time next year.  The easy answer is as an assistant somewhere in the NFL but I would not be shocked if he wound up coaching high school football for a bit.

21:45 EST

First bet is going to be Long Beach St +20.5 -106 @ 13.  They are on the road to #6 Arizona.

22:00 EST

Internet anthropologists observing this live blog decades from now should not expect the continuous fast and furious pace these entries are currently being made in.  I have  a billion channels but apparently none of them are broadcasting the Arizona game.  If things are competitive I’ll find it on the internet.  In searching for the game, I realize that there is a station broadcasting girls’ Ohio high school volleyball.  It’s listed as one of the Fox Sports channels, but I will refer to it as the Pedo Network until it proves me wrong.  I hear a noise of someone walking around upstairs and I quickly flip the channel.

22:50 EST

Miami coming back in MNF, see how that goes.  Watching Colo St vs Gonzaga.  Larry Eustachy has reemerged.  Get that man a beer.  Miami takes the lead, see what happens in the 4th.

BYU ML +172 @ 11.

23:30 EST

This game is going back and forth.  I have no idea which way it is going to go.  Which team is going to win the Ohio high school volleyb…I mean.  BYU is doing well against Stanford, up by 4 about a quarter through.  The over/under for the game was pretty high for a college game (155) and it is deserved, these teams can shoot.  You know you are in a sad state of ignorance when you are reading the comment section on espn to try to get scouting reports.  These were 2 different comments I read…

“BYU have couple of big men that will make the night hell for Stanford offense”

“How is interior play? That is likely BYU’s weakness this year, especially on the defensive end”

Okay.  Then there was this from someone who was listing reasons to bet against BYU…

“Can’t drink coffee and no Sex.”

There is definitely some irony gambling on and drinking to BYU.  Looks like Tampa is going to seal things up.

0:23 EST

Lou hopping in here because I can’t be awake and not participate in these shenanigans.  Is this a conference game?  I no longer have the desire or wherewithal to keep track.  If this is a conference game, BYU will be much better than most of the dreck that passed for Pac-12 basketball the past few seasons.  It’s like Big East tackle football if that still exists.  No idea if this will be an ‘up’ year for the Pac-12 or not.

0:35 EST

I’m reading a lot early this morning about all of these rule changes in college hoops this season designed to increase scoring.  Why not just decrease the shot clock from 35 to 30?

0:37 EST

Just took a flyer on Kentucky to win the national championship at +375.  Pinnacle had them at +300 so I can’t be that far off.

0:40 EST

0% chance Stanford wins this game currently down by 20.  Their defense has been as poor as Stanford’s women’s offense was against UConn earlier tonight.

1:00 EST

Going to go hopefully 2-1 on the night.  BYU should hold on.  Wichita St is next, do not know how many would remember this but this team made it to the Final Four last year.  That is reason enough to gamble against them.

W Kentucky +15.5 -106 @ 15

1:30 EST

Akron +9.5 -115 @ 14

To get back to Lou earlier, college sports essentially follow the pattern of non-conference early, and then hitting the conference sched up about quarter of the way through their season.  W Kentucky hanging in…

2:45 EST

W Kentucky is crumbling before me.  They are relying heavily on jump shots and they are simply not hitting them.  But still about 10 minutes left.  As I type W Kentucky has back-to-back 3 point possessions…

New Mexico St @ Hawaii -3.5 -112 @ 16

7:40 EST

Our picks are struggling at the moment.  La Salle usually has a good basketball program, we are going to take Quinnipiac simply for the sake of action.

Quinnipiac +12 -102 @ 15

8:30 EST

The public action on La Salle is to be expected, massive, which makes me like our Quinn play all the more.  I am going to add a bet on here.

Quinn/La Salle Under 156 -108 @ 14.  FGC is starting to pull away from Hartford, this is the only game I didn’t bet on and if I had I would have gone for Hartford.  The line ended somewhere around 7.5, we will see how things shake down.

8:45 EST

I had a dream the other night regarding fantasy football.  It was a completely different set-up then anything I have ever seen.  You have 10 player slots and 6 bench spots.  When you draft or pick up a player you have the option of having him take 1, 2, 3 or 4 spots in your lineup, but you have to declare it.  The spots the player takes up can be a mixture of starting lineup and bench.  For example, you can have Calvin Johnson for let’s say 4 player slots, of which you can have those stats in the starting lineup, on the bench, or a combo.  In such a league there are no positions really, just players.  I can’t decide if this would be an ungodly clusterfuck or if the idea has merit.  Probably clusterfuck, but I kind of like it.

9:45 EST

Where BYU and to a lesser extent Stanford had aesthetic beauty in their game to hit an over, these teams follow the quantity over quality method.  The number of shots taken within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock is way out there.  Currently we are on pace to cover both bets, but if these d-bags keep chucking who the hell knows.  I think I have to bet UMass later but the public money has to be all over them.

10:45 EST

Should cover both bets in the Quinn/La Salle game.  Basketball left to play, though.  All the action is on UMass, I will join the herd.

UMass -5 -106 @ 12

LSU/UMass Under 157.5 -106 @ 13

Speaking of LSU, we are coming of age to college athletes named Shaq.  Deadspin did shit about this roughly a month ago, I am just too lazy to reference it, but there is a crazy number of Shaqi emerging onto the scene.

11:48 EST

Public numbers are here: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-basketball-public-betting-chart though I’m not sure how much good they are this early in the season.  I also don’t know how much public numbers matter in basketball in general.  I don’t have public numbers in my totals engine for baseball for example, but it’s the first thing I look at in everything else.  NFL public numbers aren’t correlated until week 3.

11:51 EST

Mediocre basketball!  UMass is up 5.  Again I have no useful knowledge, but with all of these ticky-tack fouls being called, it should bump scoring up because of the free throws.  I’m sure this is reflected in the totals.  Good shooting teams, like BYU, may need to get an extra point or two on their spreads because of the additional free throws per game this season versus last.

 11:54 EST

That was Lou talking, not Pat.  Not that anyone else is reading.  Hi Ed!

11:55 EST

UMass has fully 40% of their points from the foul line.  This is awful to watch.  I’m going back to do some work now.

13:05 EST

Lou is right, this game is ugly.  And by ugly I mean they have smooshed the over.  If this game was 12-9 at this point I’d be calling it a masterpiece.  Anyway.  UMass is up by 6 with 2 minutes to go.

WV -3 -110 @ 12

14:30 EST

The S Carolina/Baylor game is the only game on for the next few hours, which means I shall be napping.  Va Tech is on about a 66-3 run right now so we’ll see how that goes.

S Carolina +13.5 -110 @ 20

17:00 EST

S Carolina is hanging tough against Baylor.  NC State/Cincy is next and then there is about a trillion games on this evening.  Down money?  Gamble on a team that you don’t even know their mascot.  That solves everything.

Cincinnati -7 -104 @ 14

18:00 EST

LIU +23.5 -107 @ 12

LIU/Indiana Under 172.5 -117 @ 18

172/173 is just about as high as over/unders get in college basketball.  If you get a span of 3 minutes with only a bucket you are looking pretty good.  I love me a good under.  Cincy/NC St tied at the half.

19:00 EST

The power of Christ compels me to bet the marque games this evening.

Mich St -4 -106 @ 12

I will definitely make a poor decision in the Duke game later.  (Hint: Duke)  Cincy is pushing at this moment, LIU and the under are covering, life is lovely.  Also…

College of Charleston -6.5 -102 @ 13

NFL Plays

The bet to make on Thursday was the Over.  Negative amounts of D at times.

Bills/Steelers Under 42.5 +100 16

Lions -1 -103 27

Side note to be examined in the future, pretty fucked up lines here for 1 Q

Sun 11/10 215 Cincinnati Bengals -0.5 +156 +101 Over 7.5 +105
10:00 AM 216 Baltimore Ravens +0.5 -177 -114 Under 7.5 -118

Bengals 1st Half ML -105 19

All for this moment.  Made add more before GameTime

****UPDATE****

2nd Half Bet Raiders/Giants Under 21 +100 @ 15

****UPDATE THE DEUCE****

Positives so far today.  4 o’clock plays

Chargers/Broncos Under 56.5 -110 @ 33

PARLAY 49ers -6 -105 Texans +3.5 -104 @ 14

****3rd Update****

Ill go with the Bucs.  Don’t love it.
Bucs ML +118 @ 14