Month: November 2013
Drunken Promises
Both Sean and I were winners last week, boldly picking the Raiders on the road. Fortune favored this brave pick, and we were rewarded with a cover. While watching the game, we patted each other on the back, saying “I mean, who thinks the Texans are 10 points better than anyone?” “I know right, you have to bet against them at that line against anyone, I’d do it if they were playing Jacksonville for Chrissake!” “No brainer,” said I, swigging from a 40. “Let’s do a shot.” Fast forward to this week, where lo and be-motherfuckin-hold who should the Texans be playing? Fantastic. As if betting Oakland wasn’t proof enough of mental instability, we now get to bet on the Jaguars. Where’s that 40 at? All of these plays are @ 19.
Jacksonville +10.5 -109 @ Houston
Jets @ Ravens Under 38.5 -113
Bears @ Rams Over 46.5 -102
Meanwhile the lines are going a bit bizzerk. I was all prepared to bet Tampa and the Chargers who have both dropped like 2 points in the last couple hours…
Cowboys @ Giants -2.5 -115
Steelers @ Browns ML -134
Colts @ Cards -3 -116
Broncos @ Patriots ML +111
7 Pt Teaser making the lines Tampa +14.5 Chargers +10.5 Jets +11.5
NCAAF Plays
Actually have some NCAAF plays this week which I somewhat like. Very tricky, weird season. FSU has not only not fallen apart, it seems that they are getting stronger. If Kansas was playing at home this week, they would be a favorite. LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia are all way down. Duke and Baylor have a good chance at playing for a conference championship. Not too, too shocking that some former heavyweights (ie Purdue, Illinois) haven’t won a conference game, somewhat mind-blowing that Northwestern, Cal, UVA and Arkansas haven’t either, though. Very hard season, for me at any rate, to get a feel for. Here is what I like today, all plays @ 16.
Nebraska +1 -107 @ Penn St
Penn St is just not that good. Giving up 21 to a horrific Purdue team, only scoring 24 on IU, needing OT to beat Illinois. As so often happens in gambling, this bet is being made more against one team than because of the other.
Kentucky +26 -111 @ Georgia
I am guessing this line is so high because it is not only a night game, but Aaron Murray’s last home game. Well F that. Kentucky is bad, but 26 points is about 3.5 too many for me. Georgia 42 Kentucky 24.
Oregon @ Arizona +18.5 -106
While I am reading articles and reports during the week I will often create a side note on my desktop entitled something like “Bets I Like.” This week, in its entirety…”Against Oregon.” Do I remember what I read, no I do not.
Indiana +34.5 -106 @ Ohio St
One time, Hoosiers.
All for now, likely more to come.
How Did I Become the College Football Guy?
Pat is stealing my mojo with the premier league plays, though to be fair I haven’t has a soccer play in months since Betfair dropped their API which allowed everyone to see what % of folks were on what side. I’m like a blind infant without that kind of info. It’s readily available for football though, so more plays!
Texas A&M @ LSU – 5
Miss St. @ Arkansas PK
Boise St. @ San Diego St. +6
There should be a hockey game later. No totals posted for college yet.
UPDATE: Hockey in early as I am out for the day:
Ottawa +125
Dallas +166
Premier Week 12
Lots of interesting games this week. Fulham is just so tempting to bet against every damn week at this point, I just don’t know if it is possible for them to stay as bad as they have been, though. And Swansea has no Michu…I might still bet this anyway. Let’s type for a while and hope I forget about it. Where I will be putting money on things is a West Ham/Chelsea draw +294. Winston Reid still out, but we’ll roll with this anyway. It is going to be a twilight/evening affair so the fans will have plenty of time to get Hammered. I like Stoke City/Sunderland under 2 and 2.5 -121 because I see both teams more interested in trying to guarantee a point via a clean sheet than in blowing away their opponent. And I will go with Newcastle ML -124 as an indictment more against Norwich than belief that Newcastle have now found their form. All plays are @ 15. I would be surprised if there was not a further update for the games tomorrow and Monday. And look, I managed to forget about Fulham. There’s still an hour left before kickoff…
***UPDATE****
Want to bet Man City/Tott but the odds just aren’t lining up for me.
Am taking West Brom ML +116 @ 16
“The Raiders….on offense!”
Gotta hand it to the rookie Matt McGloin (Penn State) on the road last week coming up with the win. He looked very good, and the fact Penn State runs a pro offense helps. hell, the Raiders even scored touchdowns……on offense (despite missing all of his weapons)! We like him getting a point at home to the Titans (even) this Sunday.
I also like Jacksonville +10 (-115) in Houston. They’ve covered the number the last few weeks, and this bet is more of a moratorium on the fact that Houston, I don’t think, is ten points better than ANYBODY right now.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110) vs NY Jets – I’m not enthused taking the Ravens with juice here, but the Jets on the road have just been SO bad. Having a rookie QB doesn’t help, and Anthony Allen might miss this game as well and that’s huge because Rex Ryan’s blitzing, aggressive scheme relies on a roaming, instinctive, athletic safety. They just signed Ed Reed, but he only has 2 out of the 3 left there. Also teasing this with the under at 39.
Giants/Cowboys Over 45 (-110) – Watching missed tackles is kind of fun. I get to do it every week as a Pats fan. If we could only get the Tecmo Bowl music:
Friday
Games went as expected yesterday, at least around here. UAB was an easy winner, taking their game to overtime as a +17.5 underdog and the Saints won by 4, opting to run a play on 4th down as opposed to kicking a late FG. I took a slight loss on the game after getting a late hedge in. Nothing in hockey again tonight and college football is also looking sparse tomorrow. One fake play in college hoops but no totals, and there are a bunch of games started already so no idea if I missed anything there.
Loyola Chicago +108
Current Numbers:
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 0-4-2 -4.4
NCAA Hoops Totals are 3-1 +1.9
NCAA Football: 8-8 -0.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 9-7 +5.36
NFL: 10-5 +5.04
Thursday
Yesterday’s total was a winner in a contender for most boring college game of the season. Our fake play lost again and I think I’ll stop posting them at this point. No plays in hoops today. One football game in college, UAB +17.5. In NFL, I missed out yesterday and the line has now moved back to where it started to NO -7 or 7.5, so I am on the wrong side of this one.
Also nothing in hockey for those who are following there.
UPDATE: I am hedged out onto Atlanta +8
Wednesday
Both plays were losers yesterday, with the total getting smushed by a 103 point effort by Wisconsin. I went back and checked and Wisconsin put up 99 against Prarie View A&M in their 2011 opener and there was nothing more than an odd 90 point game against other hapless opponents over the past 10 seasons. In our three totals plays so far, two have been off by literally 50 points and the third was a one point winner. I’m going to guess there’s nothing conclusive in that.
Tonight’s total is on a snoozer, Amerian @ Ohio St. Under 127
In fake plays that will probably lose: Tulsa +6
Nothing remotely close in hockey tonight. In other news I took some early action this morning for maybe the first time ever and got Saints +7 -115 for their game at Atlanta tomorrow. The line has spiked all the way to 9.5 or 10 in some places as everyone and their extended families is taking the New Orleans. There is zero reason to bet New Orleans at this point if you haven’t already, and I’ll be looking for some creative way to have a middle open instead of being forced to cheer for the Saints, which being from Atlanta I can’t actually do.
Tuesday
More winning yesterday for those who were following along. Carolina won by four in a game I thought had a very good chance of ending in a tie or least least going to OT last night and our hockey play was a winner as Calgary won in a shootout despite conceding an equalizer with six seconds remaining in Winnipeg. No plays in the NHL tonight despite some promising early numbers.
One total in college hoops in a contender for whitest game of the season so far:
North Dakota/Wisconsin UNDER 140
One fake play that will probably lose:
Rhode Island +23
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
