Month: November 2013
NFL Sunday
Ugly day yesterday with two terrible teams losing again, giving back a lot of our win from Friday. In the NFL today, the short list is looking quite sparse. Carolina, Atlanta, San Diego and Dallas are the only options using just the public numbers, and there are a number of reason why those teams are particularly unpopular. Atlanta is out because of their heavy line move and I really don’t see anything on the Chargers that warrant betting them.
Carolina and Dallas are interesting for a couple of reasons. They are obviously anti-public teams or they wouldn’t be on the shortlist, but they both also had a reverse line move this week, and their opponents, SF and NO are the #1 and #2 picks in the Hilton contest this week. For those unaware, the top 5 picks each week in the Hilton contest should be avoided at all costs and possibly bet the other way as the record on those plays is something like 11-33 so far. Any one factor doesn’t make a team worth betting, but when three or more variables start pointing the same way, I start paying attention.
NFL
Carolina +6 -115 @ San Francisco
Dallas +6 -105 @ New Orleans
I would not take 5.5 on either of these.
Bookmaker Garbage Line Teaser
NYG -1, IND -2 -120
Nothing in hockey today.
Rebound
Tough last week but you can only win if you bet more!
NCAA:
Texas A&M v Miss State Over 68
UFC:
Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort vs Dan “Hendo” Henderson – Total Rounds 2.5 Over at -110
NFL:
Teaser: Baltimore +1 and Under 44 (a hedge versus my Cincy win AFC North bet)
Dallas at New Orleans Over 54
Denver (-7) at San Diego, the Over 58, and both in teaser
Chicago (pick) vs Detroit
I now present the worst call of the year (even worse than the penalty kick Chelsea FC’s Ramires got today in the 94′ versus West Brom to salvage a 2-2 tie, thanks to a Eden Hazard PK):
Saturday
NCAA
Purdue +15.5 at home to Iowa
Kentucky +14.5 I am waffling on, but if there’s another tackle football game today for me, this will be it.
NHL will have to check in later. There’s nothing right now.
UPDATE: Kentucky started already and I didn’t get a bet in. I really thought it was a night game.
UPDATE #2: This is really ugly. Florida +165 @ Ottawa. Florida is winless in 7 and just got a new coach & Ottawa has been much improved of late.
Nothing Today
No plays in hockey or tackle football and nothing even close. All winners yesterday.
NCAA 6-7 -1.34
NFL 6-3 +2.01
NHL 7-5 +4.56
Several games look promising for tomorrow’s college slate but NFL is not promising. Nothing much out there at last check. Not that a 1-0 week is anything to be ashamed of :)
NFL Play
As Louis said, lot of stuff going on out there tonight. For the most part I am going to just be a very interested spectator, which in Vegas speak means, “lame guy who is taking up a chair in the sports book.” The one play I am making is in contradiction to Louis with Wash -1 -106 @ 21.
Month to Date : +46.45
Thursday
Today in gambling reminds me of our old Sports Trivia days, “Question 9: Sports!”
Hockey has one straightforward play tonight, Vancouver +156 @ San Jose. Senators were a winner on Tuesday.
College tackle football, Stanford +10 -110 at home to Oregon
Lastly, in Professional tackle football, I have Minnesota +1 at home to Washington.
There is NBA tonight as well, but I do not yet know how to wager on it. :(
Good luck out there.
Fight Club
UFC on Fox Sports 1 tonight. I am currently up 9.5 units on the year in MMA, let’s keep this ball rolling.
On top of that, the fights tonight are at Fort Campbell for the US Troops, benefiting the Intrepid Fund, which benefits soldiers with tramatic brain injury. You can check out the site and make a donation here.
Here are my picks:
Michael “Maverick” Chiesa vs Colton Smith to go the distance at +110
Tuesday
Some bookkeeping and a play in hockey:
NCAA is down to 5-7 -2.34
NFL is 5-3 with yesterday’s injury-aided win +1.01.
NHL, 5-5 +1.85 with Ottawa +115 going tonight.
Also a note from Captain Obvious: It’s easier to be in the plus instead of minus when the games you’re betting have a ‘+’ in front of them.
MLB Summary 2013
Since the playoffs are over, it’s well past time I got this up and posted. 2013 was a good season for me and anyone who followed along, as we finished well on the plus side. I definitely want to continue refining the picks machine for next season, but for a first run I’m very pleased with the results. Totals were a highlight and these results would look even better had away teams been excluded entirely as they were only dropped in June and showed the only substantial loss of any subset. I also took off most of September, hence the low number of plays there.
| W | L | T | $ | |
| April | 9 | 7 | 4.06 | |
| May | 12 | 13 | -0.12 | |
| June | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2.1 |
| July | 19 | 12 | 7.61 | |
| August | 12 | 7 | 5.34 | |
| September | 1 | 2 | -1.04 | |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 | |
| W | L | T | $ | |
| Away | 6 | 12 | -4.04 | |
| Home | 39 | 34 | 8.24 | |
| Totals | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13.75 |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 |
In fantasy, I managed two cashes, including a 2nd place in high stakes NL where I could have conceivably finished anywhere between 1st and 5th. A late season pickup of LaTroy Hawkins and his 13 saves gave me a much needed boost in saves, but I ultimately ouldn’t overcome drafting both Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.
Lastly, in Pat and I’s MLB Totals, we both did much, much better than usual. I had a chance at a perfect 10 for 10 but finished a few wins short on a couple of teams. Here’s the breakdown:
| Lou | |||
| Miami | Over 63 | 62 | -10 |
| LA Dodgers | Under 91.5 | 92 | -9 |
| Philadelphia | Under 84 | 73 | 8 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 7 |
| NY Yankees | Under 88 | 85 | 6 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 5 |
| White Sox | Under 81 | 63 | 4 |
| Milwaukee | Under 81 | 74 | 3 |
| Cleveland | Over 77.5 | 92 | 2 |
| Arizona | Over 82.5 | 81 | -1 |
| Total | 15 | ||
| Pat | |||
| Detroit | Under 92.5 | 93 | -10 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | Under 91 | 90 | 8 |
| St. Louis | Over 86 | 97 | 7 |
| Seattle | Over 77.5 | 71 | -6 |
| Chicago Cubs | Over 72.5 | 66 | -5 |
| NY Mets | Under 75 | 74 | 4 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 3 |
| Atlanta | Under 87.5 | 96 | -2 |
| LA Angels | Under 91.5 | 78 | 1 |
| Total | 9 |
First, note that with one more Tigers loss, Pat wins here. Second, for anyone who bet the Dodgers over, it was a Miracle Cover as their rise from the ashes was well documented over the season, and they still only covered by one game. I had real life money on Miami Over 63, but finished one win short of a push on that as injuries hurt an already MLB worst offense. The Marlins run differential was similar to the Phillies and White Sox, but with runs being so rare, it’s hard to rack up enough wins. I’d say lesson learned, but I knew the risks going in and still liked the bet. For the other two season bets, Cleveland came up one win short in the Central at +1000, but Oakland cashed as they somewhat easily won the West at +445 with Texas collapsing in September.
We are definitely doing all of this again next season, though plan on slow going for me until May.
Monday
No plays for me on Sunday on what would have likely been a breakeven day judging by my shortlist. The Jaguars have kind of thrown off the lines and stats this year as they are an order of magnitude worse than whatever team (Tampa) is #31, but it’s traditionally very, very difficult for one NFL team to beat another by 14+ points on any consistent basis. Seattle has shown that, squeaking out wins against two bottom 10 teams the last two weeks.
Pat is on the Bears tonight and I am too, Chicago +10 -110 for me. Public is ~30% on Chicago tonight and that’s just good enough for me to wade in with a play. I would pass on the 9.5 that was being shown earlier.
Also Arkansas was a loser on Saturday in my only college play. My Auburn under is officially toast as well with this win, but that was bound to happen after their A&M victory a few weeks back. Still Alive in my other four futures for likely a break even-ish season on those. I’ll update my season record once I finish the spreadsheets for college.
No hockey yesterday or today and only a slight possibility for tomorrow. As mentioned, I tweaked the system to reduce the volume of plays, hopefully that will be a good thing. 5-5 +1.85 there.
