Miracle Covers

Total(s) Recall

Ah yes, it’s that time of year to go over the totals; this is one of my favorite exercises because of the schadenfreude involved in discussing these teams.  Especially the Dallas Cowboys, who I usually always betted the season under on up until a few years ago, when everyone in America got in on the fun.  The line now is 7.5 at -175, which is too much for my blood considering there will be a sweat in December after the Cowboys make their yearly November run where they win 2-3 games, get their fans excited, be on ESPN everyday…..just to see Tony Romo throw the ball to the other team when it counts in December.  But they could go 8-8 as the Cowboys schedule is pretty soft this year.

Here is what I like:

Cleveland Browns Under 6.5 (130)

Rookie Head Coach (Pettine) who has already taken shots at Belichick, their best player is suspended for the entire season thanks to weed (I do hope Josh Gordon sign with Calgary in the CFL so I can pick him up for my CFL fantasy team) and I can’t name another WR on their team. I have no idea who the RB starter is, and an offensive coach (Kyle Shanahan) who already ran RG III’s career to the ground.  The QB situation is a mess too; Hoyer is a good player but more of a good backup at this point, and Johnny Manziel is incredibly wild with his play and a turnover waiting to happen (but fun to watch; he also probably doesn’t want to be there).  The Browns play the AFC South,which is the weakest division in football this year; they also play the NFC South, which I believe is the second best (behind the NFC West).  Their last 4 games: Colts, Bengals, Panthers, Ravens.   Now if only Joe Haden could play on offense!

Washington Under 7.5 (115)

RG III is under immense pressure, and is under a new rookie HC and OC (which is always good for a young QB; ask Alex Smith) and a backup QB in Kirk Cousins who Joe Thiesmann already thinks should be starting, the smartest thing Joe Thiesmann has ever said, ever.  I’m actually more worried about this hitting if he plays; RG III’s mechanics are still way off for me to believe in him.  The defense has good players, but they are one injury away to suck again.  Their offense has a good running game, but the skill positions have 3 guys who have had perennial hamstring problems (Reed, Garcon, D.Jackson).  50 year old Santana Moss is still on the team.  The NFC East is also a competitive division and every game will be a grind.   They play the AFC South and the NFC West.  There is also the karma thing with regards to the name.  Last four games: Rams, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys.

49ers Under 10.5 (-150)

This is the one the sharps like the most IMO (despite the juice, which started at -135 to -140).   A few factors here:

– Talent wise, they are the best team in the game.  If this was Madden, they would be the team I pick.  Unfortunately for the 49ers, that usually doesn’t translate well historically in the Salary Cap era.  Ask the Washington team.

– “New Stadium Curse”  – when these new stadiums open up, there is alot of excitement…..but also pressure.  As well as the fact the ticket prices go up, so that means more “wine and cheese” fans into the game.  Which means less noise, which translates into less of a home field advantage.  Also, the pitch is absolute shit.  Not good for a primarily running team as OLs need good footing for edge blocks.

– Defense.  Not as good as previous years, but still very good, especially when the team gets a 10+ point lead.  Very aggressive, although lots of penalties (not always a bad thing; last 3 SB champs have been top 3 in penalties on defense).  Aldon Smith, the best “elephant” LB in the game, got suspended for 9 games because he’s a crazy person (addendum: their starting DL, Ray MacDonald, also just got arrested for domestic violence, an automatic 6 game suspension). The loss of NaVarro Bowman to ACL injury is huge; he’s arguably the best MLB in the game.

– Colin Kaepernick.  Intriguing player, will have some exciting moments.  But he just signed a big deal, and quite frankly, the fact he’s going to be paid TWICE more than TOM BRADY next year, is fucking nuts.  If he struggles, how will he handle the pressure?  Oh, his backup?  Blaine Gabbert.  Who threw a TAINT last game.

– Jim Harbaugh.  Harbaugh is like Larry Brown or Harry Redknapp: the type of coach who can turn your team around quickly back into contention, and then peter out in a magnificent plume of flames after the “Honeymoon” period is over.  I think the locker room knows he probably out after this year (he wants more administrative control, and more money…which he knows he can get in the open market), so if things struggle early….they might tank on him.  It’s also a tough division*; all 4 defenses could be top 10 in the league; they play the AFC West and NFC East…not easy.  They could go 6-10; they could also limp in at 9-7 into the playoffs and make a SB run (they also might get NaVarro back).  That’s how talented, yet erratic, they are.  Last four games: Raiders, Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals.

*A candidate to win the NFC West division is Arizona at +700….but that’s only if rookie Logan Thomas at some point plays.  Carson Palmer sucks.

Jaguars Over 4.5 (-120)

This is my favorite pick.  The one that the books don’t see coming.  They have a coach coming back on his second year, and most importantly, Blaine Gabbert is off the team.  They lost Maurice Jones-Drew, which means they actually get younger and better at the RB position.  Gerhart is a solid backup, and Jordan Todman is a underrated standout from UConn.  Both can’t carry 25+ times a game, but both are very good “shotgun” backs meaning they can run routes, pick up blitzes, and run well on sprint draws….and this is important because the Jags will be in the gun ALOT as they, IMO, will be in a lot of games this year.  They also moved former UMich QB Dennard Robinson to RB, a great move as he will play the Flex Back role (a la Dexter McCluster).

Their QB situation is a bit weird: Blake Bortles (great baseball name), their 1st round pick from UCF, has played better in the pre-season games.  The coach has opted to sit him for the beginning of the season so he can learn; a decision I respect and probably better for his career.  That’s also because they have the best backup QB in the game in Chad Henne (I used to say Kyle Orton, who is a drinking champion and just signed with the Bills).  He’s got a great arm, decent decision making, and he’s experienced and did well at the end of last year when he came in for Gabbert.  Bortles is such a talent however and looked so smooth, I actually think they could be 7-9 to 8-8 with him.  Henne could do that too (although I think 6-10 is a more projected record); for the first time in 5 years, QB is a strength in Jacksonville.  Bortles at some point may play due to injury; Henne doesn’t move well and is more of a “spot” thrower so he stands in there and takes hits as he throws quite a bit.  Injuries derailed Henne’s growth in Miami….and Bortles may benefit.

The defense is OK and the skill positions on offense are average with former Gamecock standout Ace Sanders, and veterans Marcedes Lewis and Cecil Shorts III (who will be the WR1 as Justin Blackmon serves a suspension for this).  I also like Cecil Shorts in fantasy because the minute I drafted him, Pat Darts started making fun of the pick which the best endorsement one could get for a fantasy draft pick.

Lou also likes them to potentially win the division; they are now +2000 to win in a division that is the weakest in football, IMO.  Consider:

Texans: Rookie HC, and their QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick….which means they have no QB.  Why they didn’t offer a 4th or 5th for NE’s Ryan Mallet still kind of stuns me (addendum: the Texans eventually cut Keenum and got Mallett for a 6th Round pick).  Andre Johnson also wants out of town and maybe traded by Week 9.

Titans: Their QB is Jake Locker…which means they don’t have a QB.  I also can’t name 10 guys on their team.  And if you know me, that’s really bad (because I am a stats geek and play Madden and gamble on these games every week).

Colts: They have a great QB in Luck….but not much else.  The TEs are good…but neither has played a full season due to injury.  The WRs would be killer in fantasy…in 2009.  And their starting RB is Trent Richardson, who is, according to Lou, “The Blaine Gabbert of Runningbacks”.  And the defense still can be run on.

Yes, the Jags are playing in a pit that is Jacksonville, FL……but considering the above, and the fact we usually have one “worst-to-first” team each year in the NFL, it’s not inconceivable.

The Jags are 100-to-1 to win the SB, and the Raiders are 50-to-1 to win, and that kind of shocks me because the Jags have at least an outside shot of winning their division.  The Raiders have no chance, according to the Raiders Fan Club I met in Montreal at Peel Pub (yes, Quebec has a Raiders fan club lol).  This has been like every year for Oakland (although I do like what I see from Derek “I’m not my brother, David” Carr).

A UFC pick for tonight:

Tony Ferguson 9/2 to win by submission.  Check out this darce!

I leave you with this bench clearing brawl in the Lingerie Football League: