Category: UFC
UFC Tonight
Saturday Plays
World Cup:
Luis Suarez has a future in corporate PR:
Luis Suarez says bite not intended, claims he lost balance & hit face on player causing 'a strong pain in my teeth' http://t.co/wblF4WLHsn
— Zeninjor Enwemeka (@Zeninjor) June 28, 2014
Columbia -105
UFC:
Clint Hester +105
Cub Swanson/Jeremy Stephens Over 4 Rounds EVEN
Survivor
Pretty good day for me yesterday, despite me losing the Thunder bet (I ended up being quartered as I also too the over, but missed teaser/line/ml). The buzz in the WSOP at the end of the game was kinda neat though. Of the many moments that you take away from Vegas, the random guy going, “YEAH!” at any time for the various result he is desiring is truly a great, positive, human feeling of elation, relief, and joy. Who needs shrinks and prozacs when you have miracle cover run good to turn that frown upside down! I will say: I abhor the cigarette culture here. I’m surrounded by cig butt ash no matter where I go, which in a sense is a fun ironic metaphor for the ashes of the millions of dollars being set on fire in Vegas, ON A DAILY basis.
For yesterday, I went 3-1: missing the White Sox at +105…..but hit a UFC play (CB Dollaway +150), the Orioles at +110, the Athletics at -120, and those 3 in a parlay that paid out 10 to win 127. I also made it to Day 2 of the WSOP Millionaire Maker NLHE tournament with 18.2k in chips. Not bad for a “day”s work”.
Things I like today:
Blackhawks/Kings Under 5 at -105 (Game 7, I expect the best from these two goalies)
Blue Jays/Royals Under 8.5 -110 (Buerhle has pitched well lately)
Cubs +128
Giants +100
A’s -142 (I might also look at taking them winning the AL at some point, they are due. I’ll need to look at this more, and hope I won’t be able to because that will mean I am still playing poker or $1.3 million dollars)
Leave you with this interesting nugget on Spurs futures for the title:
While the #Heat never had higher odds than +280 to win the title, the #Spurs were listed at +1500 back on Feb 14th. pic.twitter.com/lb5U9DaVVm
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 1, 2014
How to turn $1 into $869
So, been a pretty bad week for me sports gambling the last week: I batted 0.233 in my NCAA bets, my brackets are cooked, and I missed all but 2 of my suggestions on this blog for NCAA this week. Thank god for poker lately, as I have been running hot.
However, amazing feat last night for the UFC Card in Brazil: Shogun vs Henderson 2.
I was playing some MTTs late last night and was going to watch the event while pokering. If you have followed my UFC bets here on the site, I’ve done very well with a 62% ROI on UFC bets YTD, including killing it on these Brazil cards since I always look for good odds for fighters FROM BRAZIL fighting guys who are NOT. Especially when they are underdogs…..they just fight jacked up and put on a great show for the home crowd.
I liked two fighters on the card: Fabio Maldonado +230 (a boxer with a granite chin) and Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525. For the Santos fight: not only had I not heard of the guy he was fighting (Ronny Markes….and I follow MMA pretty closely), the guy also missed weight by 5 FUCKING POUNDS. I’ll take the +525 (Thiago Santos beat him in the first round with a liver kick to the stomach).
I also did something fun: I parlayed 4 dogs in a $1 parlay that would pay out $188.24:
Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525
Fabio Maldonado +230
Michel “Trator” Richard Cunha Dos Prazeres +260 (his opponent grabbed the cage *4* times during the fight, resulting in 3 points taken away. I’ve never seen that before, even in WWF steel cage matches)
Leonardo Santos +230
Well wouldn’t you know it, the first 3 hit! So we had a great hedging opportunity with the last fight with Leo Santos, a Brazilian JiuJitsu Blackbelt who is the sensei for champions Henan Barao and Jose Aldo, versus Norman Parke, a Judo Olympic Team Member from Northern Ireland.
Parke was a -335 favorite (this encompasses ALL results, like No Contests), so I betted around that since we had around $80-$100 in hedging cash and -335 was too high to bet on the fight alone.
I took:
Parke to win via decision -150
Parke via KO (kick or punch standing) +400
Parke Inside Distance (submission/ground n’ pound TKO) +250
AND $10 on the draw at +7500
The fight itself, was awful. A grappler vs judo guy usually is a good stylistic matchup, but these guys just canceled each other out.
Parke was strong enough to hold Santos against the cage (therefore taking him away from his ground game with BJJ and establish octagon control), but didn’t have enough power in his fists to make significant damage to impress the judges or KO Santos.
Santos is very green striking and you can tell; but his wrestling defense (sprawl) is very good.
The referee was also awful, giving Parke a 1 point deduction for grabbing the shorts during a takedown in the second round (its usually just a warning, even if you pull the guys’ pants down). This was the type of fight that tilts the fuck out of Dana White, especially since it was 3rd to last fight and the card up to then was one of the best I’ve seen in the history of the promotion as 90% of the fights ended in a KO.
And wouldn’t you know it, the judges scored it 29-28 Santos, and 28-28 and 28-28, shipping us the draw! On top of that, and I didn’t even know this: for 2/3rds of the bets I made on this site, since the match ended as a draw in MMA, I also chopped that cash too! And it was….a miracle cover!
The amazing thing about this UFC card, sans this draw: EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG WON. I think if you parlayed all of the dogs on the card that night, it probably would of been 100,000-to-1. The type of shit that keeps a bookie up at night.
I now have some more money to set on fire at the WSOP in the summer, and I also now will take Winnipeg +150 tonight on the road. #whynot
Luck of the Irish
So Miracle Covers contributor (and Suns fan) Nick and I went to the Celtics game last night vs the Suns. The story of the night wasn’t the miracle cover that happened at the end of the game, where the Suns went on a 10-0 run in the final 1:30 to beat the Celtics 87-80 (and cover the -4.5 point spread) as the Celtics chucked up wild shots like it was the final seconds of a Pop-A-Shot run.
The *real* story (and incredibly tilting) for me was losing the half time beer bet with Nick on the 10th graders (all white kids….so it was evenly handicapped). We got back to our seats late from a beer run and saw his team, the Green team, hit a set-shot 3……so he set the line at -2.
My team, the White team, then went on a 11-6 run with 1 minute to go (thanks to having the tallest kid on the court who grabbed so many rebounds maybe the Celtics should look at signing him). Then, out of nowhere, the Green team scores 6 points in the span of 20 seconds, mostly on long shots I couldn’t hit at that age on a regular basis………including hitting a meaningless 3 at the buzzer despite being up one when they had the ball and the last shot. I yelped in agony, Nick raised his arms in victory, and everyone in our section was looking at us like we had two heads as I am yelling furiously at these poor children, “Pass the ball! Rotate! Box Out! Forward!”.
Yes folks, we have a gambling problem (and yes, like most of those in the stadium, you probably bought a Mega Millions ticket too, you degenerates!).
And it was….a miracle cover.
Today’s bets:
NCAA:
NC State +9.5 (-105) vs Duke
St Bonaventure vs St.Josephs Under 142.5 (-115)
UFC 171:
Diego “The Dream” Sanchez vs Myles “Fury” Jury Under Rounds +200; Fight does not go distance +170 (try to watch Diego fight if you can, the guy is simply an animal. He always puts up good fights too, with 7 Fight of the Night awards, because the guy just goes forward, no hands up).
Alex “The Dominican Nightmare” Garcia wins fight -400 (good prospect)
Hector Lombard vs Jake Shields fight goes distance EVEN (These guys are both wrestlers, so that means alot of grabbing and hugging and all out boringness)
Robbie “Ruthless” Lawyer wins by Inside Distance +400 (a speculative play vs Johny Hendricks, but we are getting good odds on a guy who has been knocking out people since 2005)
Soccer and UFC Saturday
Here’s are my plays for today:
UFC London:
Danny “The Cheesecake Assassin” Mitchell +190 (I have no idea who this guy is, but great nickname!)
Omari Akhmedow +265 (This guy I do know, another Dagestan Sambo killer. He shouldn’t be this big of a dog)
Soccer:
Tottenham +1 (even) and Draw +330
Also, to answer Lou’s question why things maybe falling apart in Vancouver, this episode from John Tortarella in Calgary a few months back may explain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCeuJPhrt8E
UFC 170
Here are my UFC 170 plays:
Stephen “The Wonderboy” Thompson wins inside distance +200 and the fight does not finish at -105
Demian Maia wins by decision +400
Ronda Rousey vs Sara McMann Over 1.5 rounds at -170
Overall good month sports betting, but bad month of poker. I wish we could bet on the Olympics all year!
TJ Oshie
I’ve never seen a guy take 6 straight penalty shots before. He was so composed; almost stuff you see on the pond (because he was so slow and deliberate) not in actual NHL-sytle shootouts. For Russia, that Datsyuk guy….he’s pretty good. The USA now (4-to-1) are serious Gold medal favorites, IMO.
Bets today:
Olympic Hockey:
Czech/Swiss Over 4.5 (-120). We hit our benchmark, and as good as the Swiss have played defensively in this tournament, I actually think they’ll be able to open up their offensive game vs the defense-less Czechs. It’s a pretty big game for both teams. Someone wins 3-2 here.
UFC (in Brazil):
UFC on FOX 10
Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens vs Darren Elkins Under Rounds 1.5 @ +155
Sergio “The Phenom” Pettis wins by Inside Distance +185
Darren “The Detroit Superstar” Cruckshank vs Mike “The Wolverine” Rio Fight Goes Distance +190
Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga to win +200
Benson “Smooth” Henderson -300
I also think Pat Darts got drunk in the Mr.Met costume:
Failure Games
Went a paltry 3-10-0 last week (thought it was only 2 wins, but my drunken ass forgot I bet on the Giants +9.5 #thanksdarts). My best weeks however are usually Weeks 1, 6, and 17. This year a little more tricky, especially if i have to bet on the coaching decisions like below.
Guess who it is: Sean playing Madden DRUNK, or an NFL coach SOBER:
- When you turn the game on, and you see fist/chest pumping furiously between HC and his assistants on the sidelines after the opposing defense commits an offside penalty with 4th-and-3 with 1:45 to go, tied 31-31, opposing team having no timeouts, on the center of the 7-yard-line…..I mean, game over, right?
- Next play: HC/Off. Coordinator: “LETS RUN THE BALL straight up the middle on first down.” (Someone has Le’Veon Bell on their fantasy team!).
- The defense, still playing hard (but not thinking; they didn’t get those scholarships in college for MATH), tackles the ball carrier at the 3-yard-line, stopping him short (and keeping the clock running; may the record show your honor that the defense just set 0:45 on fire). The optimal play on the defensive side is to let them score to get the ball back to try and win the game (see: Packers 1998 Super Bowl and Patriots 2011 Super Bowl…..both teams failed to score, but at least they had the opportunity. Arizona’s Darnell Dockett is still slowly catching on to this).
- Off Coordinator/HC: “Oh wait, you forgot last time to let him score? FINE – LETS RUN THE BALL UP THE MIDDLE AGAIN“. Has the offensive coaching been taken over by a combination of DaGowin and Steve Spurrier? The defense and coach finally figure out this uncomplicated addition problem, and the offense scores a TD, making it 38-31 with 1 minute left to play (Merry fuckin’ Christmas to the offense bettors, we’re live baby)!
- Special Teams Coach: “Instead of squid kicking on a dry, cold field………you know what we should do, up a TD with a minute left? Let’s kick the ball deep to one of the best returners of the second half this year, that way he can get blocks setup to return the KO all the way to the 33-yard-line to setup a short field for a TD*. Let’s make this exciting for the fans at home and those who stayed at the snowy confines of Lambeau Field”. *Listen, Darts and Sean have the offense here…..they pay WAY too much rake to at least not deserve a sweat on these outstandingly mediocre shitty football teams.
- Off Coordinator: “Then we’ll get ball all the way to the 4-yard-line, 0:30 seconds left, no timeouts. You know what we should do? Let’s run the ball up the middle out of the shotgun formation! The Steelers, one of the best run defenses in the NFL, won’t see that coming!”
- Everyone in America: “Dudes you HAVE NO TIMEOUTS!!!!!!11111″
- Shit, of course a pre-snap penalty for false starts as the lineman tried to get a jump on the ball for a RUNNING PLAY. But hey: sick sweat as the time runs off 10 seconds, and the clock starts at the whistle. Gamblers hearts are flurry. Surely the QB, Center, and coach are prepared to get 2, maybe 3 plays off……
- …..Crickets. I’m stunned. Darts is finishing off a vodka nip stunned. Everyone in the crowd, on the stands, the commentators, and worst of all: the most confused is the QB of the football team, Matt Flynn (who was signed by the Raiders for $6.5m/year), who had to be reminded by the referee that THE CLOCK HAS STARTED AT HIS WHISTLE. Instead, a rushed hurried pass play occurs with 0:06 left, and throw a slant incomplete. The defense wins (by default).
Maybe they should have called the below, least he hits this guy in stride:
And remember, as Darts said (after Cleveland’s Grudzinski went for a 2 pointer up 12-3 in the 3rd quarter vs NE for no reason, other than the oracle of a premonition that he was going to lose the game by 1 point, 27-26): “How do these fucking guys have jobs? And get paid millions* to do this shit?”
*Even Marvin Lewis doesn’t screw up that bad (BTW thanks for winning the AFC North division when I got it at +200, coach!).
On second though, I shouldn’t compare these clowns to Drunken Madden Head Coach Sean. Could be onto something, its like Popeye and Spinach! Get me a 12 pack and I turn into the Belligerent Bill Walsh!
NFL Picks: Despite the failure of Mike McCarthy above, taking the Packers -3 (-105) at Chicago. Rodgers at 80% > Cutler at 100%. Although watch Cutler get hurt, McCown wins the game, and Cutler gets let go by the Bears and goes and signs with the New York Jets for $80m/6 years! Fun times!
Tampa at New Orleans Over 47. Will also throw this in teaser with BUF at NE Under 53 (heavy ice/rain downpours are expected on Sunday afternoon, intensifying throughout the game).
Seattle vs St Louis Under 43. Will also tease this with the line at -11 (St Louis defense is good, but not Arizona good, who might be in the best form in the league right now defensively. Too bad Carson Palmer is their QB. Therefore……)
SF -1 (-105) Bet against Carson Palmer in a big game? Yes, plz. Unless they put Patrick Peterson in the game at QB. I might also take the under here, but that’s almost TOO cheeky, especially in the BioDome…..things happen.
KC at SD Over 45 The defensive guys will have been drinking the night before as this game means nothing. Wouldn’t YOU also be drinking in San Diego?
UFC 168:
Uriah Hall vs Chris “The Crippler” Leben Fight goes distance +110 This is a “win-or-lose-your-job” match…and these tend to be close to the vest. One guy is an somewhat over-the-hill former top prospect (who once fought Anderson Silva) and recovering opioid addict (Leben) who is fighting to hang on to his career. The other (Hall)? A young-gun-hype-disappointment that was criticized by UFC President Dana White for being too nice in the ring when it came to hugs and such pre-round. On the other hand, Hall did do this:
Fabricio “Morango” Camoes wins inside distance +650 Small speculative play; if he wins, it’s by submission. Miller, who is a fun fighter to watch and a tough dude from New Jersey (whose brother also fights in the UFC), this will be his 4th fight of the year. Fighters only win around 33-43% of those fights on average because of the wear-and-tear of not just the fights themselves, but mostly due to the training. Probably harder than the fight most of the time, especially in the lower weight classes, because fighters must make weight which is very difficult.
Jim Miller vs Fabricio “Morango” Camoes – Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-115) This could also be fight of the night (20-to-1) if it wasn’t for that Anderson Silva guy fighting. Classic maniac striker (Miller) vs 3rd degree BBJ (Camoes). Camoes also once fought Anderson Silva for 27 minutes…..with his BARE HANDS. This is Camoes first fight in the UFC, despite being a MMA veteran.
Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier vs Diego “DB” Brandao Fight will not go 3 rounds -155 I just saw the weigh-ins, and these motherfucker DO NOT LIKE EACH OTHER. So don’t the girls’ belt clash with Rousey and Tate, but with 10 straight 1st round arm bars for Rousey, that trend just means the line goes to -1400 (+575).
Anderson Silva -185 Why not? He’s HOF, and it’s probably the lowest you’ll ever get him in a fight again, unless it’s Jon “Bones” Jones (who would probably be -125).
