NFL Week 5

Posted in NFL - 2014/10/05 - 0 Comment

BAL +3.5

DEN -7.5

CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5

NO v TB OVER 48

Also, Philly’s line is down to 4.5 at some books.  I’d take at -4.5 but not at -6.

Teasers:

PHI -6

SF -6

DEN -7.5

and

PIT -7

CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5

NO v TB OVER 48

And a ML parlay for fun:

Orr NHL93

And here are your most bet on games of the day:

 

NFL Sunday

Posted in NFL - 2014/10/05 - 0 Comment

A lost week for me, I’ll get current season totals up in a bit.  No NFL plays for me today, though I’m close on several, Tennessee, Carolina and Arizona the primary ones, but I will probably pass altogether.

Saturday

Posted in NCAA Football, UFC - 2014/10/04 - 0 Comment

Fun stuff today.  Taking a 5 fighter parlay on all of the Swedish fighters on today’s Stockholm card at +875.

Orr NHL93

 

 

I also like the under in the Nebraska v MSU under at 60.5 (now at 55!) as it will be raining (which is usually trouble for running teams as lineman can’t setup their blocks.  Both defenses are pretty good, too).

 

Thursday Night Degeneracy

Posted in Baseball, NFL - 2014/10/02 - 0 Comment

Ponder is starting tonight for the Vikes, so therefore I *must* take Green Bay -10 (-105) at home.  I am also putting them in a teaser with the under at 47 (also a hedge with Matt Asiata, who I have in 2 fantasy leagues).

We’ll continue the MLB binge with taking the Angels at -1.5 at +115 at home versus the Royals and putting them and Green Bay in a parlay at +410. 

Huge split for the Angels spread bet but I think betting against Ned Yost could be a profitable strategy for us:

 

 

Wild Card Wednesday

Posted in Baseball - 2014/10/01 - 0 Comment

I like the under (6.5 -105) in tonight’s Pittsburgh vs Giants NL Wild Card game.  Madison Bumgardner always seems to come through for the Giants in these games, who are a pitching team.  Stats on the action below:

Royal Hedge

Posted in Baseball - 2014/09/30 - 0 Comment

I have a good amount of money on the A’s winning the AL before the year (I took them before the Samardzija trade and after, it totals to around A’s +425); unfortunately, despite beefing up their starting rotation….their lineup has sucked balls since trading Cespedes for Lester in July.

Therefore, my hedging starts tonight as the Royals host their first playoff game since 1985.  I’m taking KC at -103 (Shields) vs Lester and the A’s on the mound.  Also, for your edification, the over/under is 6.5; under tonight’s umpire, Bill Miller, the total has hit the under 58.6% since 2005.

This hilarious nugget from the briliant Joe Posnanski sums up the Royals futility over the last 19 years:

In the afterglow, I find myself trying to remember the low moment, the moment that summed up all of what it meant being a Kansas City Royals fan the last 20 years or so. I think of the time Tim Belcher was named the Kansas City Royals pitcher of the year despite the somewhat limiting fact that he had a 5.02 ERA and had pitched no better than the numbers. He sat on stage glumly, accepted the award with a sheepish speech about how he didn’t deserve this award (in this case, he really didn’t) and sat down no doubt thinking he couldn’t wait to get out of Kansas City (which he did a year later).

The Royals, those Royals, are going to the playoffs.

And now here’s a chart from Skidmore College statistics professor Michael Lopez on how Sabermetric MLB Forecasts Stacked Up Against Vegas:

It has been a great gambling year for me…….but Boston is, IMO, kind of coming back to Earth with sports success.  Rough night for the Pats last night; it might of been their worst game in the Brady-Belichick era….and Bill Simmons couldn’t say a word about it.  He probably hates the NFL so much right now, that motherfucker isn;t even watching the games!

On top of the that, WSOP Bracelet winners, and KC natives, the Hinkle Brothers, let this Pats fan know just how they felt about the game last night.  That Pats under (11 at -150) is looking good right about now:

 

NFL Week 4

Posted in NFL - 2014/09/28 - 0 Comment

Chicago +2 (-110)

Green Bay might be a bad team.  I hate betting on Jay Cutler but I’ll take the point when they are at home here.  Plus it looks like Marshall is playing.  This line has gone back ands forth from +1 to +2 all week.

Baltimore -3 (-120)

The Panthers are banged up and might only have 2 RBs available today.   Cam Newton has been walking around like he’s in a nursing home due to a bad back.  And it’s also Steve Smith III revenge day; also taking two props on him hitting the Over in Rec Yards at 69.5 and score a TD at +130.

Steelers -9 (+115) and Teaser: PIT -9 and Under 44.5

TB is the worst team in the league, and the Steelers can run the ball again for the first time since 2009.

Teaser: Dallas +3 and Over 54.5

This is an important game for both teams; its SNF which usually means a lot of points.  More betting on the type of game here, close and high scoring, than on Dallas itself.

I’m also really tempted to take the Raiders ML +155 in London vs the Dolphins.  Tannenhill’s last presser where he addressed his job made him sound like a used car salesman, just like his coach.

Here are your most bet on games of the day:

Week 4

Posted in NFL - 2014/09/28 - 0 Comment

A lost week for me.  Last Sunday was painful, I was and still am convinced I was on the “right” side with St. Louis and Minnesota last week but ended up with a pair of close losses in both cases.  I also missed a couple of profitable plays in baseball being too caught up with work.  Baseball ends today with no notable games as the betting drops off significantly in September.  NFL with this bye week has not a whole lot looking good either.  One one game I have today and it Minnesota +3 +110 or +3.5 -105 hosting Atlanta.  This will be a 2u game for me.

Any updates to be posted as we go along.  Hockey starts soon, thankfully.

Saturday Plays

Posted in NCAA Football, UFC - 2014/09/27 - 0 Comment

NCAA Teaser:

Texas at Kansas 42

Notre Dame -10 vs Syracuse (Meadowlands)

UFC:

Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Under Rounds 1.5 @ +120

Yoel Romero -140 (vs Tim Kennedy) and Fight goes the distance -120

Here’s to all bettors not hitting the goal post while trying to throw a pass today

Thursday Night Football

Posted in NFL - 2014/09/25 - 0 Comment

WAS v NYG Over 45.5