Opening Night (Hockey)
There are some advantages of being he least popular major sport. People treat you like the cute youngest sibling and generally ignore you and leave you to your own devices right up until a major event that causes some people to temporarily take notice before letting you retreat back into relative anonymity. For degens, this means the lines don’t move very much unlike some larger sports (NFL, cough). With no baseball tonight, American sports fans will be forced to watch hockey to find a sport who’s games count this evening. We’ll start with the win totals:
Playoff Baseball
I was all ready to writeup the record & recap for the season, and then a play appeared:
Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Cardinals (Miller) +143
I didn’t get it posted so it doesn’t really count, but I am the owner of some Orioles to win the World Series shares at +725
MNF
Taking the Washington team +7.5 tonight vs Seattle. This is partly a hedge with my under bet with them.
Also hedging against VT in fantasy football as I am up vs his last player, Steven Hauschka, Seattle’s kicker. The Over for 2 Seattle FGs is -110
In his #Seahawks career, Pete Carroll has gone 14-5 ATS as a home favorite but only 6-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) October 6, 2014
NFL Week 5
BAL +3.5
DEN -7.5
CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5
NO v TB OVER 48
Also, Philly’s line is down to 4.5 at some books. I’d take at -4.5 but not at -6.
Teasers:
PHI -6
SF -6
DEN -7.5
and
PIT -7
CHI v CAR UNDER 46.5
NO v TB OVER 48
And a ML parlay for fun:
And here are your most bet on games of the day:
Most popular NFL parlays:#Eagles 90%#Steelers 89%#Chargers 84%#Saints 81%#Lions 78%
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) October 5, 2014
Most bet NFL games:
1. Bengals-Patriots
2. Jets-Chargers
3. Cardinals-Broncos
4. Bills-Lions— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) October 5, 2014
NFL Sunday
A lost week for me, I’ll get current season totals up in a bit. No NFL plays for me today, though I’m close on several, Tennessee, Carolina and Arizona the primary ones, but I will probably pass altogether.
Saturday
Fun stuff today. Taking a 5 fighter parlay on all of the Swedish fighters on today’s Stockholm card at +875.
I also like the under in the Nebraska v MSU under at 60.5 (now at 55!) as it will be raining (which is usually trouble for running teams as lineman can’t setup their blocks. Both defenses are pretty good, too).
Thursday Night Degeneracy
Ponder is starting tonight for the Vikes, so therefore I *must* take Green Bay -10 (-105) at home. I am also putting them in a teaser with the under at 47 (also a hedge with Matt Asiata, who I have in 2 fantasy leagues).
We’ll continue the MLB binge with taking the Angels at -1.5 at +115 at home versus the Royals and putting them and Green Bay in a parlay at +410.
Huge split for the Angels spread bet but I think betting against Ned Yost could be a profitable strategy for us:
Getting closer to first pitch and we're still seeing a 97%-3% split on #Angels–#Royals spread bets. #MLBPlayoffs
— Pinnacle (@Pinnacle) October 2, 2014
Wild Card Wednesday
I like the under (6.5 -105) in tonight’s Pittsburgh vs Giants NL Wild Card game. Madison Bumgardner always seems to come through for the Giants in these games, who are a pitching team. Stats on the action below:
This season the #Giants were 12-5 (+5.58 units) when Madison Bumgarner starts on the road.
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) October 1, 2014
NL #WildCard Betting Trends
-56% of ML bets on #Pirates
-62% of OU bets on the Overhttp://t.co/wQR5xoCyan— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) October 1, 2014
Royal Hedge
I have a good amount of money on the A’s winning the AL before the year (I took them before the Samardzija trade and after, it totals to around A’s +425); unfortunately, despite beefing up their starting rotation….their lineup has sucked balls since trading Cespedes for Lester in July.
Therefore, my hedging starts tonight as the Royals host their first playoff game since 1985. I’m taking KC at -103 (Shields) vs Lester and the A’s on the mound. Also, for your edification, the over/under is 6.5; under tonight’s umpire, Bill Miller, the total has hit the under 58.6% since 2005.
This hilarious nugget from the briliant Joe Posnanski sums up the Royals futility over the last 19 years:
In the afterglow, I find myself trying to remember the low moment, the moment that summed up all of what it meant being a Kansas City Royals fan the last 20 years or so. I think of the time Tim Belcher was named the Kansas City Royals pitcher of the year despite the somewhat limiting fact that he had a 5.02 ERA and had pitched no better than the numbers. He sat on stage glumly, accepted the award with a sheepish speech about how he didn’t deserve this award (in this case, he really didn’t) and sat down no doubt thinking he couldn’t wait to get out of Kansas City (which he did a year later).
The Royals, those Royals, are going to the playoffs.
And now here’s a chart from Skidmore College statistics professor Michael Lopez on how Sabermetric MLB Forecasts Stacked Up Against Vegas:
It has been a great gambling year for me…….but Boston is, IMO, kind of coming back to Earth with sports success. Rough night for the Pats last night; it might of been their worst game in the Brady-Belichick era….and Bill Simmons couldn’t say a word about it. He probably hates the NFL so much right now, that motherfucker isn;t even watching the games!
On top of the that, WSOP Bracelet winners, and KC natives, the Hinkle Brothers, let this Pats fan know just how they felt about the game last night. That Pats under (11 at -150) is looking good right about now:
NFL Week 4
Chicago +2 (-110)
Green Bay might be a bad team. I hate betting on Jay Cutler but I’ll take the point when they are at home here. Plus it looks like Marshall is playing. This line has gone back ands forth from +1 to +2 all week.
Baltimore -3 (-120)
The Panthers are banged up and might only have 2 RBs available today. Cam Newton has been walking around like he’s in a nursing home due to a bad back. And it’s also Steve Smith III revenge day; also taking two props on him hitting the Over in Rec Yards at 69.5 and score a TD at +130.
Steelers -9 (+115) and Teaser: PIT -9 and Under 44.5
TB is the worst team in the league, and the Steelers can run the ball again for the first time since 2009.
Teaser: Dallas +3 and Over 54.5
This is an important game for both teams; its SNF which usually means a lot of points. More betting on the type of game here, close and high scoring, than on Dallas itself.
I’m also really tempted to take the Raiders ML +155 in London vs the Dolphins. Tannenhill’s last presser where he addressed his job made him sound like a used car salesman, just like his coach.
Here are your most bet on games of the day:
Most bet NFL games:
1. Falcons-Vikings
2. Packers-Bears
3. Saints-Cowboys
4. Eagles-49ers— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) September 28, 2014
