NFL Bets To Date
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 9
I was sick the week we turned in bets last year, and it’s very possible the Cowboys were partially responsible. The Cowboys under has been the most reliable bet since I started doing this in 2006. I bet Dallas under 9.5 wins and they were 9-5 after week 15 and in line for the #2 seed and a week 1 bye. They promptly scored 7 points at home next week against the Eagles and then lost at home again in week 17 against a 2-13 Lions team for the miracle cover. That led to a last second field goal that did not go well.
Sean and I joke that this is the easiest annual bet to make and made fun of me for picking Dallas’s over last season. In truth, Dallas has hit their over in 2007 with 13 wins and 2009 with 11. Their number is consistently between 8.5 and 9.5. I blame the lockout for last season, but it also took a series of unfortunate events, similar to 2006 for this under to hit. It’s extremely difficult as an outsider to say that the epic collapses are endemic to a team and not merely unlucky, but because this team is on television all the time, everyone can see that the Cowboys are consistently the worst good team in the league. I have to post the video.
They routinely shift into their clogged toilet offense in the final 4-6 minutes of close games, often while leading, fail to convert for the 2-3 first downs or single score that would seal the game, and then often lose because their secondary was unable to cover or tackle anyone.
Most of that secondary has been replaced this season, but Brandon Carr coming over from KC has never been asked to be the #1 corner and the rookie Claiborne will likely have problems his first season. (Patrick Peterson, a superior player out of the draft, was horrific as at corner for Arizona and only added value by his excellent punt returns). The even more immediate problem this season is that seemingly half the team is injured and it’s still August. The offensive line has questions as well
This is clearly a work in progress. The expected starting guards, Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau, are at last on the field. Phil Costa is still working his way back, but David Arkin has at least become a possible solution at center, at least for a game or two. Doug Free seems to be having some problems. However, there are differing opinions as to just how big they are. On the O line, only Tyron Smith seems to be not only fully capable, but a standout player.
Here is a list of the Cowboys leading receivers from last season and their current status
| Pos | Rec ▾ | Yds | Status | |
| Jason Witten | TE | 79 | 942 | Injured |
| Dez Bryant | WR | 63 | 928 | House Arrest |
| Laurent Robinson | wr | 54 | 858 | Jaguar |
| Miles Austin | WR | 43 | 579 | Injured |
| Felix Jones | rb | 33 | 221 | Banished |
| DeMarco Murray | rb | 26 | 183 | Starting RB |
| Martellus Bennett | te | 17 | 144 | Giant |
While this isn’t quite Miami Dolphin territory if only because this group has the potential to be above average, it’s not looking great for week 1. Combine this with the near certainty of turning at least one sure victory into a defeat and this is a bet I really like. I have 9 wins but most books have 8.5 which is another plus. Lastly there’s this:
Carolina Panthers to WIN NFC South +525
I couldn’t get the 550, but the Falcons and Saints are co-favorites here and while the styles are different, I don’t really see where the Panthers are appreciably worse than the Falcons aside from head coach. That can be a big difference obviously and I think it might determine who ultimately wins this division. The Saints don’t have a coach, the Falcons have a professional one and I don’t know what to think about Ron Rivera. MLB Luke Kuechly is just wonderful player and will have a Patrick Willis like impact on this defense.
Speaking of their defense, it was horrible last year, possibly even worse than the Rams as they suffered the same problem of having everyone get injured. This in turn led to the special teams being terrible too. Filling your roster each week with guys who were cut in training camp is generally not a path to success. Assuming average health, this defense can’t be as bad as Atlanta’s and Carolina at least has a player who can get to the quarterback on a regular basis. Likely over in the pickem pool, but a 100% bet here as I like getting better than 5:1 on what should be a 3-3.5:1 bet.
Oklahoma State Over 8.5 -135
I know nothing about college football, but hit on Stanford a season or two ago. Blackmon and Weeden are the highest profile players to leave and are day 1 NFL starters. I am betting here that whoever is left, and I can name no one on their roster, is competent enough to pickup all 6 “guaranteed” wins and go at least 3-3 versus the rest. Baylor might push the guaranteed wins up as high as seven without Griffin as their defense was horrific, in which case I like this even more.
2012 NFL Season Win Totals & Division Odds
Lines posted from Pinnacle. Unlike other books, Pinnacle doesn’t like to get middled, so they continue to adjust the juice on these lines as the money comes in rather than move the number. So Miami is at 7 or 6.5 other places but 7.5 and -305 here. It turns out looking incompetent on Hard Knocks, jettisoning talented veterans, starting a rookie QB who had problems with interceptions against Big-12 defenses and having your GM compared to Matt Millen minus a receiver fetish is enough to cause everyone and their immediate families to bet the under. Who knew?
Arizona 7 (U-183)
Atlanta 9
Baltimore 10 (U-195)
Buffalo 7.5 (O-237)
Carolina 7.5
Chicago 9.5
Cincinnati 8.5 (U-224)
Cleveland 5.5 (U-194)
Dallas 9
Denver 8.5 (O-182)
Detroit 9.5 (U-194)
Green Bay 12 (U-208)
Houston 10 (O-196)
Indianapolis 5.5
Jacksonville 5.5
Kansas City 8
Miami 7.5 (U-305)
Minnesota 6
New England 12
New Orleans 10 (U-171)
NY Giants 9.5
NY Jets 8.5 (U-170)
Oakland 7
Philadelphia 10
Pittsburgh 10
San Diego 9 (U-175)
San Francisco 10
Seattle 7 (O-230)
St. Louis 6
Tampa 6
Tennessee 7 (O-160)
Washington 6.5
Baseball Play
I would really like this a whole ton more if I was getting a better payout, but I am bending to Vegas’ will on this and accepting something at essentially even money.
Arizona (+108) @ Atlanta
D’Backs have a young pitcher Bauer who is supposed to be the bees knees. The fact that the Braves are putting out Jurrjens or however you spell it is nice (since he’s been so hittable this year) but not fundamental to the bet. It’s all about Bauer. As a final note on this, I thought I was pretty hot shit knowing stuff about this guy…I had Sportscenter on for about 20 seconds this morning and they were talking about how this kid is still available in about half the espn fantasy leagues. They were putting things in a positive light as in, “be the first in your league to grab him. He may still be available!” I’m shocked it’s already that high, though. Very glass half empty feel to this. We’ll see…
Baseball Plays
Not crazy about either of these bets but I’m hungover, slightly bored, and the proud owner of the MLB package, so why not. I have
NYY (+160ish) @ Detroit
Seattle @ CWS (under 8)
By Verlandean standards, Justin has been pretty bad recently, and the Yankees are the Yankees. I think honestly the best bet in the Seattle/W Sox game is betting on Sale, but I picked up Milwood in “super-dork league”* so I simply can’t bet against him. Both Milwood and Sale have been pitching well recently, so I’ll gamble on the under. I could literally see this coming down to the wire, like a 4-3 game in the 9th with men on base. See what happens.
* Phrase by Louis
Baseball Play
I like the Oakland A’s tonight as a slight, slight underdog against the Angels. LA’s pitcher Jerome Williams has been excellent this year after a poor first outing against the Yankees. But the Angels are injury-riddled at the moment, and A’s pitcher Tommy Milone is fully capable of pitching a gem himself.
The Play : A’s (+105) 20 Units
Big Norm – Real Man of Genius
I’m thinking about taking Over 6.5 on Saskatchewan simply because of the man in Regina and video below:
Plays for 4/8/12
I will take the Reds at -120 today against the Marlins. Spring training numbers equal essential zilch in my book, but Zambrano was so supremely bad in March we are going to have to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one. I will put 24 units on this.
I will take 2 units on Henrik Stenson at +3070 to win The Masters today. Guy is only 5 shots back, I’ll go for a long shot.
Nick’s Over/Unders
I was going to do a “control” pick – kind of like when they have an animal pick games against the expert, or when Bill Simmons picked NFL games against his wife – because my interest in/knowledge of baseball is at an all-time low, and I didn’t know much about it even back when I cared. So I thought it might be interesting to compare my know-nothing/random picks to two guys who actually follow MLB. But then I realized that even staring at a list of team over/unders for 10 minutes and pretending to have any opinion would be way more time and attention than I’m willing to commit to baseball. So in lieu of that, I present my Canadian Football League over/unders!
All lines were made up by me, because no one has posted any CFL over/unders, and I doubt anyone ever will. But Bodoga does have 2012 Grey Cup odds currently posted, and the win totals I made up do roughly follow those odds posted at Bodoga, so they should be pretty fair. And even if they’re not, I don’t know anything about how good or bad any team is, so I’m still shooting blind. I’m assuming that CFL teams play an 18-game regular season schedule (Roger Goodell is SO HARD RIGHT NOW) based on the fact that I looked at Montreal’s schedule this year and counted up 18 regular-season games and 2 exhibitions. As an added handicap, my confidence points only go up to 8, because there are only 8 teams. If I still manage to beat either Pat or Lou, he should be very ashamed.
Before I begin, I should point out that my extensive research process turned up an interesting fact: Last year was the first time ever that every CFL team was under the salary cap. Good to know. Anyway, here goes:
8. Saskatchewan UNDER 6.5
Saskatchewan, besides being hard to type, is the biggest longshot to win the Grey Cup at 9/1. They’re also the most remote team, hailing from some God-forsaken place in the middle of nowhere. They might not even be in a province for all I know. We know about the dangers of a West Coast team travelling East in the NFL, but this should be worse: A North Pole team travelling South. And probably East most of the time, too. Add in the fact that ever since Ottawa folded, Saskatchewan are the only Roughriders left in the league, and I say they go under. This is my Lock Of The Week!
7. Montreal OVER 9.5
I like their city, I like their team name (Alouettes), and their jersey is so heinous that it has to distract the other team. Plus they have a unique homefield advantage in that the visiting team is so worn out from the strip clubs and hookers that they can’t give 100%. Plus their QB was the subject of a good article on Grantland. This is my Shoe-in Of The Week!
6. Hamilton OVER 11
They are the 4/1 favorite to win the Grey Cup, and their name is the Tiger-Cats. Not the Tigers, mind you, the Tiger-Cats. I’m not sure if this is just Canadians being over-specific, or if they’re talking about some bizarre mad science-style housecat/tiger hybrid. I guess the idea behind that would be something that looks mostly like a tiger, but is smaller and capable of being domesticated, so that it doesn’t maul you during your magic act? Anyway, I like the over.
5. BC UNDER 10
Even when it doesn’t stand for Boston College, BC still sucks.
4. Toronto UNDER 8
I’m assuming the Argos have the same problem as the Leafs – ownership knows they don’t need to put together a competitive team because the fan base is so rabid no matter what. Plus I don’t like the fact that they gave away a home game to Buffalo.
3. Calgary OVER 9.5
Calgary is home to Bret “The Hitman” Hart and the biggest rodeo in North America, and that’s good enough for me.
2. Winnipeg OVER 9
Winnipeg’s team is called the Blue Bombers, which was also a nickname for Mega Man back in the 90s. I played a lot of Mega Man video games back then, so I’m taking the over.
1. Edmonton UNDER 7
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that the win totals I made up add up to 70.5, which is 1.5 less than the total wins available. (You’ll also notice that some of your life choices have been highly questionable.) Given that, it seems like I should’ve picked more overs than unders, but let’s face it, I don’t really care. Nor do I care to find out anything real about Edmonton or its team, so here’s something I just made up: The Eskimos’ stadium is large enough to fit the entire population of Edmonton. Sadly, this makes it the smallest stadium in the league, with a capacity of just 3,500. With very little crowd noise, look for Edmonton to suffer at home. Take the under, then sit back and pop the bubbly.
Lou’s 2012 MLB Over Unders
Excuses Reasoning to follow…or not. Again this is confidence pool scoring, so 10 is the highest confidence and 1 is the lowest. Winner between Pat and myself gets a pub crawl all expenses paid. Last season Pat and I both did horribly. I believe I went 4 for 10 and Pat went 3 for 10. I managed to hit on three of my top five to give myself at least some respectability. Like the NFL season win totals, which I am admittedly much better at, my picks lean towards the under because betting on failure is always more fun than betting on success. Plus the number of available wins in Pat’s posted list is 2447 which is 17 more than the total number of wins available in a season (minus the play-in game to the play-in game to the play-in game et al).
10) Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5
The Blue Jays are up to 83 wins on Pinnacle. That’s generally enough for me as Pinnacle rarely moves their lines without an excellent reason. Very hot and unsustainable spring by the Blue Jays who should have enough talent and organizational depth to get to .500
9) LA Dodgers Under 81
I’ll let someone more qualified at writing explain this one:
Still, you can be an above-.500 team with two superstars and a cast of decent role players. The problem is general manager Ned Colletti hasn’t shown he can find competent role players at bargain prices, the way so many smaller-budget teams have. Colletti scanned the free-agent landscape and decided that the best bet to play left field was Juan Rivera, a mediocre hitter (.314 and .308 wOBAs in 2010 and 2011) who’s generated just over 1 Win Above Replacement over the past two seasons, wasting about 1,000 plate appearances to get there. At least Rivera’s only going to eat $4 million and a club option to play poorly and block Jerry Sands (a rare homegrown player with some pop) from playing time. Juan Uribe had a career year at age 32 with the 2010 Giants, convincing Colletti that a career stuffed with injury problems and a complete misunderstanding of the strike zone wasn’t as important as whatever happened 10 minutes ago. Uribe’s now in year two of a three-year, $21 million deal, slated to be the Dodgers’ starting third baseman this year after hitting .204 with four homers in the 77 games he didn’t miss in 2011. On the plus side, 2012 could bring the Dodgers another Cy Young, an MVP award, and the league lead for crummy, overpaid starters named Juan.
8) Baltimore Orioles Under 70.5
Fun fact: The Orioles have not exceeded 70 wins since 2005.
7) St. Louis Cardinals Over 86.5
The Cardinals replace Pujols with Beltran and get Adam Wainwright back with a largely unchanged roster otherwise. I have a large bet on this one at 84.
6) Kansas City Under 76.5
Their starting pitching is currently awful. Not as bad as the Orioles but awful. The bullpen is good and the hitting is getting there but 77 wins is a big ask. Fun fact: The Royals have won more than 77 games once in the last 20 seasons.
5) Oakland A’s Over 72
I mistakenly left Oakland off my list in the original posting. The projection systems like Oakland for 76 wins and so do I. Last 5 seasons: 76, 75, 75, 81, 74 NL West for interleague
4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over 86.5
I have no good reasoning for this pick other than since the Rays got good they tend to beat their number by a few wins a season. I think I picked them last year.
3) Detroit Tigers Under 90.5
600 LB of corner infield. That’s really all I have as they are going to score a lot of runs.
2) Miami Fish Under 85.5
The Marlins weren’t particularly good last season and the division is more difficult than any besides the AL East, who Miami faces in interleague. If everything goes right (Johnson, Ramirez, bullpen) they will cruise past this number, but it is a long season and Jose Reyes is unlikely to play all of it.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates Under 73
This would be much higher on the list if the Astros and Cubs were not in their division.
Lastly, just for fun…
-20) Chicago Cubs 74.5 I cannot envision a better line for this team than 74.5. Reliably below average with few prospects for immediate improvement, yet the bet cannot push! Good seats still available! The 2012 Chicago Cubs!
2012 MLB Over/Unders
Shit the bed in this segment last year. Time to wash the sheets. Rules as always, pick over/unders for ten MLB teams. #10 pick is your high confidence pick and is worth 10 points. The stakes, a pub crawl. At the #10 spot this year…
#10 Pittsburgh Pirates (under 73) “Barmes is one of the worst regulars in baseball.” “Presley is somewhat lacking in terms of power and speed. He had a distressing platoon split…” “(McGehee)…coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular.” These are the player reviews for far too many Pirates, creating a starting lineup littered with players who would struggle to make most teams’ benches. Something to keep in mind that may or may not mean something, going into the night of the 19 inning blown call game vs. Atlanta they were 53-47. That means they finished last year at a 19-43 clip. Yucky.
#9 Toronto Blue Jays (over 80.5) I will tell you flat out the reason I now really like this pick. A night or two ago Lou noted some line movement since I posted over/under totals back in mid-March for this contest. Apparently Vegas has been back-pedaling big time with these guys. Original number = 80.5 with a ton of juice on the over. Current number = 83. Wow. And their bullpen looks filthy, if you are looking for some non-degenerate rationale to take the over.
#8 Los Angeles Dodgers (under 81) This is a bit difficult. The Dodgers roll out essentially the same team every year, and every year, with the recent exception of 2009, they finish smack dab around the .500 mark. Except in 2011 they needed three things to happen to get there, 1) their best hitter to have a career year 2) their best pitcher to have a career year 3) and the team as a whole to have a rather too successful 34-20 mark to finish the season. Matt Kemp went ahead and signed a Hamptonesque 8 year deal which means money is no longer a motivation. After him, this lineup is not good; the infield may rank among the least productive of any mid to major market team this year. The Mets proved last year that any rotation going into a season with Chris Capuano as a projected starter is not in the greatest of shape.
#7 Milwaukee Brewers (over 85) Losing Fielder is a bitch. But check this out. Remember that guy McGehee earlier in the Pitt pick? He was the Brewer starting 3B last year. This year it’s Aramis Ramirez. Remeber how Corey Hart missed the first month of the season to injury and still hit 26 home runs? Remeber how Greinke was injured as well and missed his first few starts? Remember how the Ryan Braun suspension got overturned and this number wouldn’t have been that crazy different if it hadn’t? Remember how the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates are horrible.
#6 Kansas City Royals (over 76.5) There is just the absolute slightest of half chances that the Royals actually win their division this year. Luke Hochevar had a very positive second half last season and while Danny Duffy struggled, his minor league numbers suggest a much better performance this year. Losing Soria is not ideal, but they have a very capable trio of Holland, Broxton, and Crow to lead the bullpen. Slightly terrifying that their success rests heavily on both Francoeur and Alex Gordon having consecutive impressive years.
#5 Philadelphia Phillies (under 93) Wanted to take the Marlin over, didn’t have the balls. Wanted to take the Nationals over, didn’t have the balls. So let’s do the next best thing and take this under. Now I tried this garbage last year twice, taking the W Sox over and Yankee under extensively based on the comparative strengths of their divisions. Result: 0-2. So here’s another argument, Hunter Pence may at this time be the best regular in this lineup, just sayin’. So pitching, Halladay is a 34 year old power pitcher, just sayin’. Maybe Cole Hamels starts going down Zito Avenue…The 2011 Giants are proof enough that great pitching alone is not enough at times, and if that great pitching morphs into solid pitching this team will struggle.
#4 Tampa Bay Rays (over 86.5) If this lineup was a bit more confidence inspiring this would be a top level pick. Then again, their over/under would be through the roof if this lineup was primo. Everyone knows the pitching staff should handle itself well. This is all about if the bats can hold their side of the bargain. I like their addition of Luke Scott to the lineup, a wrinkle that gives Maddon just an extra ounce of flexibility. If they add a power hitting middle infielder this number becomes virtually automatic IMO. Those keeping track, that’s 4 “ifs” for this pick, good thing only 3 picks left…
#3 Colorado Rockies (under 81.5) This just does not look like a .500 club. The rotation could be a disaster. “Speculate upon him in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, but don’t go overboard,” a quote from espn fantasy page on the team’s listed ace Chacin. #2 starter Guthrie – “his fly ball tendencies are a major concern at Coors Field…tread carefully.” #3 Pomeranz has 4 career starts and a plus 5 career era. The #4 starter Juan Nicasio fractured a neck vertebrae about 7 or 8 months ago and Jamie Moyer will turn a half century old by the end of the year. Suspect.
#2 Cleveland Indians (over 79.5) Justifying this pick on two rather tenuous concepts. I really like the back end of the Indian rotation with Tomlin/Gomez, and I like the youth movement led by the likes of Santana, Cabrera, and Kipnis, which should add excitement, energy, and skill to the club. So again, I am justifying this pick on young talent and back end pitching.
#1 Texas Rangers (over 91) The only mention I will make of the AL West. This seems like the safest bet of the bunch, though picking the Rangers to do well always has a slight “when is the roof going to collapse” feel to it. My confidence is bolstered by Mr. Met, Nolan Ryan working behind the scenes.
