Coach Call-Outs
Refers to the Head Coach of a team reaming his players out publicly. Bill Self does this last night after Kansas struggles to beat Long Beach St by 8 at home. Self slams his team (primarily the guard play) for their inability to control the ball. How his college-aged players react to being blasted out in the open in their upcoming game against No. 2 Ohio State is of interest here.
“If we handle the ball like that, (Ohio State) can pick the score,” Self said. “Let’s just call it like it is. They will pick the score in our own building if we handle the ball like that…It will be a jailbreak if we turn the ball over against Ohio State. They won’t just be running out and scoring two points. They will be making plays that are ESPN top-10 plays.” Quote ESPN college basketball blog.
There is no line yet.
UPDATE
Line: Ohio St (-3) @ Kansas. I know nothing about college basketball at this moment in 2011, but I will be taking Ohio St here. Let’s see what happens.
This and Dap
Want to throw some dap Louis’ way. Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.” He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played. His analysis was spot on. Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game. The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills on the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum. Great pick.
Follow up dap on that game. A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read. In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU. To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there. Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th. I quote…
“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.” Brilliant.
Boxing. I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite? So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog. Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by. This has to have gambling implications.
I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there. But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league. I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league. 3 picks a week. With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3. How ugly are those picks?
Two Touchy Home Faves Revisited
Talked last week about the half dozen teams in college that were roughly 2 TD home faves, let’s check out how things went down.
- Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
- Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
- Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
- Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
- Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
- Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41
We had created two groups. Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent. The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number. Both groups went 2-1 ATS. Conclusion – Nothing to really report. Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated. Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.
Two Touchy Home Favorites
We are going to look at a very specific group here, games where the home team is essentially a 2 TD favorite. Everyone is playing opponents from their own conference.
- Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
- Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
- Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
- Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
- Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
- Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)
Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents. Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations. Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public? If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved. As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things. I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.
Game of the Year
The opening line on LSU/Alabama is ‘Bama -4.5. I made a somewhat vague promise to myself that if I was more than a point off in either direction on this line I would bet the game so it looks like I am taking LSU. Couple of boring points about the line…
- It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
- There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
- LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
- Vegas is not run by idiots. They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?” Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause
With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…
Pick : LSU +4.5
Gotta Win Game
Sometimes you bet a team simply because they are in a game they essentially have to win or their season is in the crapper. Last week this could be seen in the NFL in the Eagles/Redskins game where if Philly loses they go to 1-5 and for all intents and purposes they are done.
This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game. Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat. If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced. If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one. So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.
Pick : Cal -3
Game of the Year
Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama. Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are. If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.
Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
Pat’s MLB Over/Unders – A Recap
Got absolutely hammered on this stuff. I just went to write Over/Unders in the Subject Header and I hit the shift button making it Over?Unders which pretty much sums up my year. Couple notes on my picks.
- Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September. Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
- In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.” Granderson was an OK guy. Wrong.
- In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.” Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.
At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.
Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record. Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty. I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros. Amazing stuff.
Game of the Year
The annual college football apocalypse game this year looks to be LSU vs. Alabama on Nov 5th. Gonna keep a running tab on the Tigers and Tide throughout October to see where the line of the game would be were the game to be held at that moment. There is every chance that my guess will not budge from this starting point (a pretty dull but realistic thought), but what the hell, let’s see if this is interesting.
Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
College Football Site Recommendation
For anyone looking to be humbled on the subject of college football I would encourage you to stumble upon the site “Pre-Snap Read” It is beyond impressively run by Paul Myerberg who it seems is a college football guru for the New York Times. I am still uncertain how much of his material is subscribed out from freelancers or colleagues. If the answer is little to none I am wowed, definitely worth a check-out.
For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.” I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS. If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.
