UFC on FOX 10
Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens vs Darren Elkins Under Rounds 1.5 @ +155
Sergio “The Phenom” Pettis wins by Inside Distance +185
Darren “The Detroit Superstar” Cruckshank vs Mike “The Wolverine” Rio Fight Goes Distance +190
Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga to win +200
Benson “Smooth” Henderson -300
I also think Pat Darts got drunk in the Mr.Met costume:
Plays 1/25
I will likely be adding on to this as the evening wears on.
St Johns +3.5 -112 @ Butler @ 13
YTD : -45.53
Plays 1/24
I say plays but I only have one at the moment, possibly more as the evening progresses.
Capitals/Devils Under 5 -106 @ 13
The Devils (for the most part) do not score or yield a ton of goals. Ovechkin is the only Capital at the moment worth a damn offensively. In other news, I am happy to report that the 6 goal over/under line is an actual thing, there were two the other night. This corresponds with what seems like a slight uptick in goals recently. I am a bit behind but I have been tracking lines for the last month or so and there has been a heavy barrage in what I will call BTOs or Big Time Overs. Those are overs that crush the line. On the days of 1/18, 1/19, and 1/21 ( I was hungover as balls on 1/20) there were 11 BTOs by my standards* and only 2 BTUs (ha! BTUs). One wonders if it has anything to do with this quote…
” The league is screaming for goals and all of a sudden, I don’t know how you can kick it and try to stop at the same time,” Sabres interim head coach Ted Nolan said.
That quote happened after a game where someone had a goal disallowed for kicking it into the net. The only thing we are concerned with is that it seems the NHL, like it has often in the past, is making a concerted effort to increase scoring. Something to think of moving forward maybe.
* Big Time Whatevers are when the final score differs from the line by 1.5 goals or more. As when the line is 5.5 and the final score ends up being either 4-3 (BTO) or 3-0 (BTU).
YTD : -57.79
***UPDATE***
I am not going to touch it but the Thunder/Celts game has moved 3 points in roughly .3 seconds since Durant has been ruled out. This should honestly be a measure of MVP credibility, how much does the line plummet when you are unexpectedly yanked from a lineup hours before a game. It’d be great if for some players like 2014 JR Smith where the line moves backwards.
NFC Championship
We have Seattle in an 11-to-10 bet to win the NFC (took this right after they beat the Saints on MNF). They have made the championship game, and now we have some great hedging opportunities with their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers (who I think are the most talented team left in this tournament, and have been my main bankroll builder in Dec/Jan).
My prediction? SF 20, Seattle 17.
Bets include:
Super Bowl futures:
SF vs DEN +250
SF vs NE +600
Teaser:
SF (+3) and NE (+4)
SF (+3) and Under (40)
Lines:
SF ML +150
FYI……As a warning Sunday for those who wish to take the Broncos (-4):
NCAAM Plays
Our pick last night was a dud for our first defeat for the year. I am going to be aggressive with underdogs today. All of these plays are 13.
Indiana St +10 +102 @ Wichita St
New Mexico @ Fresno St +5.5 -101
Vanderbilt +9 -102 @ LSU
Georgia Southern +2.5 -102 @ Appalachian St
Davidson @ NC Greensboro +7.5 -106
Jacksonville St +11.5 -110 @ Eastern Kentucky
UMass @ Elon College +4.5 -106
USC / Colorado Under 140.5
YTD : +21.39
NCAAM Slight Home Underdogs
For anyone reading this, slight home underdogs have been doing very well the last couple of weeks in NCAAM. The two I chose last night went 2-0, which is nothing compared to the 5-0 teams that fit this criteria ran as a group. Why not ride the wave? Of three games on tonight, one matches our description. Play is 14.
Wisc Green Bay @ Wright St +1 -103
YTD : +35.39
Basketball Plays
Our only bet so far of 2014 was a winner the other day. Whats interesting these days with hockey is there exists only two possible over/under numbers. 5 and 5.5. The amount of juice tied to whichever number Vegas takes can vary drastically, but those are the only options I have seen over the last couple weeks. The two major sports most in sync with the scoring totals of hockey that I can think of are soccer and baseball. I have definitely seen baseball’s range go from 6 to upwards of 12, and just this week in soccer the range for Premier League games stretch between 2 and 3.5. Anyway, this has nothing to do with our action tonight. Both bets here are 13.
UL Lafayette @ South Alabama +1 -106
Austin Peay @ SIU Edwardsville +2 -110
Recognize the pattern? Both very slight home underdogs. There were a few others that existed that I easily could have thrown in (Vandy, Minnesota, Montana St) but we will go with just these 2 this evening.
YTD : +11.32
UFC Fight Night 35
From Atlanta…Ric Flair is in the house WHOOOOO
Cole “Magrinho” Miller (from Augusta, GA) wins by inside distance +180, fight goes to decision +160
Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero Palacio wins by inside distance -150 (former Cuban Olympic Wrestler. Guy is simply a beast)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQkoXcNtGcA
T.J. Dillashaw wins inside distance +180 (Duane “Bang” Ludwig fighters. These guys just simply knock people out)
A shout out to Lou with his two NHL picks (BUF +180 at WAS, winning 2-1 in shootout, and TB +117 as well) that paid for my weekend football drinking. We will continue our experiment tonight with a total: WAS at PIT Under 5.5 (+105). The Capitals (22-16-8) have struggled on offense while dropping six of their last eight, including four games in which they managed only one goal. These are also the two top teams in the East playing before the Olympics; it could be a “Playoff Style” game tonight. NHL teams play 5-7 of these a year during their outrageously long (84 gm) regular season (most of the time for my Bruins, it is: PIT, MTL, NYR).
We’ll have NFL stuff later in the week, mostly having half of our bankroll on the 49ers in a hedge with our Seattle winning NFL (11-to-10) bet. BTW our referees:AFC: Tony CorrenteNFC: Gene Steratore.
Sunday
Some more quick notes today. Tampa was a winner for those who followed yesterday 6-3. One play today with a 3pm start is Buffalo +180 @ Washington. NBA has a game to check later and that’s Minnesota who is at San Antonio. Lastly, in the NFL today, Carolina is the side to be on in the early game but I have little interest in fading the 2.5 point line move. Definite pass on SF. I have no opinions on the Denver-SD matchup.
Likely limited service through the beginning of next week.
Saturday
Min post as I am out & about today. NHL Tampa +119
