Quick Hits
Norway +2.5 (-110) vs Finland
Finland looked like crap vs the Austrians last game. Captain Teemu Selanne is playing at 75% and Tuukka Rast, who gave up 4 goals, has been shaky all year. I expect this to be a close game.
Canada/Austria Under 7.5
Too many goals. I expect Austria to pack it in and not go forward to keep it close versus a talented Canada team. I also don’t know how they score goals vs Canada (the Fins were just awful on defense last game). Austria gave up 8 goals last game but that’s an outlier IMO.
Also glad I didn’t take the Czech/Lativa over 6.5 (-145). The books’ adjusted. There was also an alternate line at 5.5 at -225, but that was too much juice. Basically, any game that the Czechs play should have 6 goals total in them either way. That’s our bench mark.
USA Curling
Puts me on tilt. It’s amateur hour relative to the other good teams that are playing. The captain reminds me of a bad poker player bemoaning his bad luck, ignoring the fact that it was the decisions before the last one that caused all of the problems in the first place. It’s also different playing relative professionals versus the equivalent of me and Darts at the local curling club. That said, Germany relatively stinks too. USA/Germany Over 12.5 -140. Starts at Midnight EST for you night owls.
NCAAM
There are plays, there are mediocre plays, there are bad plays, there are horrific plays, and there are whatever South Florida did last night against UConn plays. I turned on the telecast at one point roughly 1/3 of the way into the second half. The commentator noted that South Florida since halftime had made only 2 shots. One was a free throw, the other was goaltending against UConn. Only like one game in the 7 o’clocks.
Manhattan @ Rider +3.5 -106 @ 14
Will likely add onto this as evening progresses.
MTD : -49.37
YTD : -91.44
***UPDATE***
Told you I’d be back…All plays @ 14
FIU @ Tex San Antonio +2 -106
N Dakota St @ W Illinois +9 -106
E Kent @ Tennessee Tech +3.5 -109
St Johns @ Seton Hall +1.5 -104
Cal Poly @ CS Northridge +1 -106
Hawaii @ Cal Riverside +6.5 -109
NCAAM
Good news/Bad news from our soccer picks this afternoon. Bad news – we could not have been more wrong in regards to Arsenal/Man U. I would have thought considering their respective positions both teams would have been a lot more attack-minded but both were more cautious than anything. In the Tott game we got a bit unlucky. With the score 2-nil Tott we have got several squares covered in terms of possible final scores. Unfortunately none hit. Good news – Hey, we just made 4 bets, went 0-4, and we’re only in the hole 33? Are you kidding me? What am I, 14 years old? Forward! All plays @ 14.
Nova @ Depaul +13.5 -106
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St +5.5 -102
Akron @ West Michigan -1.5 -106
South Florida +14.5 -112 @ UConn
St Bon @ Fordham +6.5 -109
Stanford @ Washington +2.5 -106
Tenn Martin +11.5 -106 @ SE Mizzu St
Couple Premier League Plays
Arsenal/Man U – Will both teams score? Yes -135 @ 15
Final Score Plays Newcastle/Tott. All plays @ 6
New 1 Tott 2 +832
New 0 Tott 2 +1148
New 1 Tott 3 +2198
Olympics
Just covered my Sweden over with Pat with 11:45 to go in the 2nd period. The 4.5 line was so bad I was immediately suspicious of some kind of fix or other information I wasn’t privy to. I’ve never seen an NHL line below 5 and Sweden is a medal favorite.
Also won the Men’s Luge Doubles play I posted in the comments last night for another small win. The two guys who won were 6 for 8 on wins for the season in 2013, winning their first six in a row and basically taking the last two races off. Seemed good enough to me at -310, though those kind of bets can be dangerous.
No curling plays yet. I’ve been studying the totals for these teams which seem to always bet set at 12.5
UPDATE: 4-2 Sean covers too!
Olympics
Couple of hockey plays. The first I am the house. I do not count these towards my YTD.
Sweden/Czech over 4.5 -125 @ 12.5 (I am the Under)
Louis seems to have stumbled upon a flaw in The Matrix with this line but we will see what happens.
Sidney Crosby high goal scorer 13/2 @ 9 Ovechkin is the favorite @ 5/1 but he’s been nicked up recently so we’ll go with The Kid. We pushed last night on our Clemson play. It took the 2 teams 50 minutes to crack 130 and a lot of that has to do with Clemson’s defense, which is up amongst the best this year. Clemson/Notre Dame was one of only 2 college games last night without an O/U. I think the idea is that if Vegas put out a number it seriously believed in it would have been like 110.5 and they would have gotten raped on a weird result like the one that happened. Vegas, not so much a step ahead, as always covering its ass.
MTD : ——–
YTD -42.07
Side Note, Lorenzen is obviously a Chunky Monkey. But I argue that the football acts as an optical illusion. If he was an O-Line Man, you would not look twice. The second he gets the ball hiked to him he instantly gains 45 pounds.
Over Czech
Small play today on Czech Rep v Sweden Men’s Hockey Over 5.5 (-105).
I also have Jared Lorenzen over 3.5 hot dogs today on his couch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHdivRyIVTA
NCAAM
Clemson +4 -102 @ Notre Dame @ 14
Notre Dame could very easily be 1-10 in conference right now.
MTD : ——-
YTD : -42.07
Finally
This week has been barren and deserted for any plays in both NBA and NHL. I should have been posting my leans which have been breakeven or so but work got in the way. Regardless there hasn’t been much. One play so far today: Ottawa +150 @ Boston. There might be more in the night games but it’s too early to tell.
