Category: Soccer
Soccer Play
Taking Bayern at home today FTW. For anyone who has been paying attention to league soccer, picking against Barca even drawing at the moment should not be considered overly daring, especially considering the opponent. Let’s hope Bayern can pick one up at home. The bet…
Bayern ML +110 @ 24
Sunday
We went 2-1 on our MLS plays last night. The home favorites both won and Chicago got a late winner to beat Columbus 1-0. While it’s a pretty solid rule to never bet on a draw in soccer, I nearly did so on this Columbus Chicago game. The draw was around +225 and Columbus to win was around +210 so I took the +120 that pushed on the tie instead. I will need to revisit draw odds on these MLS games at some point since they are so low scoring. One game over 2.5 out of six last night.
Nothing in MLB again today. Two leans in Miami and Seattle both away, but I am short on time and will pass on both. Justin Grimm is starting for Texas today and while he’s a little old for a prospect, my intuition is telling me he’ll be just fine in the Rangers rotation.
MLS Saturday
We won our MLB wager yesterday as Pittsburgh cruised 6-0 leading to Braves Journal asking the following on the game thread:
Was there a game tonight? Did the Braves know?
5-4 on the season so far for +2.62u. Nothing looks good today in MLB and there are three games already underway. Vernon Wells has 5 home runs on the season for those who care.
Three plays in MLS today however and we will see how they do.
Columbus +120 No Draw @Chicago
RSL -167 vs. Chivas
Dallas -150 vs. Vancouver
Good luck out there today.
No Plays = No Posts
One play today Pittsburgh +108 W. Rodriguez at home to the Bravos & Tim Hudson. Debating Padres and Marlins both near +200 on the road.
Fun question from trivia the other night. Name all the pitchers who spent time in the Mets organization have thrown a perfect game.
Haven’t really gotten into weekend soccer yet but will update with any plays. Highlight of the weekend in MLS is the first ever Cannabis Cup as Seattle visits Denver. Be safe ya’ll.
Sunday
We nearly won two and in a row with the Astros late last night, but the bullpen blew a lead in the 8th & 9th to lose 5-4. Also had a bit of luck in not finding a good price on the Cubs as they lost 3-2. The idea of taking all of these plus odds plays is to find the ones that are loser to 50:50 propositions and take the weighted coin flip as often as possible. There are some 2,000+ games each season to pick from so a large volume of smaller bets, the exact opposite of most other sports, is the preferred method. This is my first season tracking at length so we will see how it goes, but I assure you my plays are not very large.
Also won the MLS bet this week as Dallas beat LA 1-0 with a late goal. There were two missed penalties and a red card in the 2nd half, so there was a bit of luck here but the bet was a good one as there were zero shots on target by either team in what I’m sure was a thrilling first half.
Two leans that are most likely passes today with Oakland and Miami. I am really tempted to take the biggest line of the Astros series again today at +191 with Humber but there’s not much else there without seeing lineups and CJ Wilson will probably strike out 10-12. Sunday is especially a tricky day to bet baseball with the multitude of regulars that get the day off. Bobby Cox back in the day used to rest nearly half the starting lineup and hope the pitching would hold. If Ned Yost is doing something similar, I’ll bet on failure instead.
Quiet Week Busy Weekend
Not much doing the last few days with PSG giving Barca a scare in the quarterfinals our only action the last few days. One play this morning with a few more sure to come as I have time:
Cubs (Villaneuva) +145
Adding: Astros (Norris) +176
Astors are in Anaheim and I like fading Tommy Hanson here against Houston’s “Ace”
MLS
LA Galaxy @ Dallas U2.5 -125
I don’t actually know what Dallas’s team is called.
Soccer Play
Redknapp says this game is a must win. To my ill equipped soccer ears that sounds like “aggression.”
THE PICK
Wigan @ QPR Over 2.5 -112 15 Units
As of 4/1/13 = -9.78 Units
LIVE IN BET UPDATE
A hit post, a few saves, and Bobby Zamora unintentionally, but unquestionably, kicking a guy in the head, resulting in a red card, all seem to kill any chances of my bet. The crowd is booing the fouled player on Wigan for having his head recklessly placed on top of his shoulders with no regard for Zamora’s cleats.
Thursday
We covered our U3.5 in Madrid yesterday. Odd match that was. One play so far today:
Twins Pelfrey +132 v Detroit
Considering the following:
Benfica -220 v Newcastle
Need teamsheets for this. Price is steep.
Myers Cle +156 @ Toronto
MLS is also looking blah this weekend. KC -133 and Dallas/Toronto Under 2.5 the best of the bunch.
EDIT: Taking Cleveland at the better price +170
Wednesday
Lots of discussion about PSG’s 2-2 draw against Barcelona yesterday. It doesn’t really change Barca’s chances of advancing very much at all with the 2 away goals. Pinnacle has Barcelona up to a -700 favorite (PSG +570).
One interesting note from Monday, KC Royals manager Ned Yost decided to bat 3b Mike Moustakas cleanup against lefty Chris Sale and Moustakas promptly left 7 men on base in a 1-0 loss to the White Sox. This is something to watch the next time KC faces a lefty.
Nothing doing in baseball today. Should have taken Iwakuma for Seattle last night at +125
