Miracle Covers

2011 NFL Season Win Totals

MGM posted these in Vegas on Tuesday ahead of the abbreviated free agency to take place this weekend.

NFC

South
New Orleans Saints 10 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
Carolina Panthers 4.5

North
Green Bay Packers 11.5
Chicago Bears 9.5
Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Minnesota Vikings6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Giants 9.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Dallas Cowboys 9 (Over flat, Under -120)
Philadelphia Eagles 10 (Over -120, Under flat)
Washington Redskins 6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

West
Seattle Seahawks 7 (Over flat, Under -120)
St. Louis Rams 7 (Over -120, Under flat)
San Francisco 49ers 8 (Over -120, Under flat)
Arizona Cardinals 6 (Over -120, Under flat)

AFC

South
Indianapolis Colts 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
Houston Texans 8 (Over -115, Under -105)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 (Over flat, Under -120)
Baltimore Ravens 11
Cleveland Browns 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Jets 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
New England Patriots 11.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Buffalo Bills 5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Miami Dolphins 8 (Over -105, Under -115)

West
Denver Broncos 6 (Over flat, Under -120)
San Diego Chargers 10
Oakland Raiders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 8 (Over flat, Under -120)

Early leans: Atlanta, NY Giants, Bungles UNDER Jacksonville, Arizona OVER. Arizona is contingent on them getting an actual living breathing QB upon which the line would revise upwards at least one win so I’d be comfortable making a small bet now. The do get six games versus the NFC West. Atlanta opens @CHI, PHI, @TB @SEA, GB after which they’ll be doing extremely well to be 3-2. No idea how this team is supposed to win 11 games.

Divisions: New Orleans EVEN, Rams +245, Oakland +425. The Niners are somehow a -125 favorite to win the NFC West over on Bookmaker. I’d like to be the house on that as they look to be the same mediocre team as the last couple of seasons. The Rams are a receiver and a safety away from being the division favorite. Be careful with the Ram and Lion OVERS (7 & 7.5). Depth is always an issue in the NFL and health is a skill. Some 15% of a team’s roster will end up on IR before the season ends and while there’s some luck involved in which players end up hurt, teams with depth like the Packers and Patriots are much better suited to deal with the inevitable injuries which is a partial reason for their league high totals. Given some of the players St. Louis and Detroit were trotting out on the field last year, I’m skeptical they’ll be able to build enough sustained depth. The overs or division bets aren’t necessarily poor bets, but they are riskier.

Lastly, Eli Manning needs to prep for plays like the one embedded below since the Giants cut three offensive linemen yesterday. Not sure who they are going to bring in, but they should hope to play better than this:

NFL Futures Note

Team A – Lost in 2010 Playoffs in 1st round.  Lost in 2011 Playoffs in 2nd round.

Team B – Lost in 2010 Playoffs in 3rd round.  Lost in 2011 Playoffs in 3rd round after beating Team A in 2nd round

For those of you who have not guessed yet, Team A is the Patriots and Team B is the Jets.  And yet, the Patriots are listed by Vegas at 7-1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Jets come in somewhere around 16.5.  In other words, do not think you are getting anything resembling good value with the Pats here.

Bears/Packers

Let’s talk about the Bears/Packers game.  The line of Packers -3.5 is pretty damn interesting.  There are several factors that Vegas had to deal with in making the line, the most important probably being that essentially every one and their mother seems to bet the Packers.  I’ve brought this example up a few times on this site but the classic case was last year when their road playoff game against the Cardinals went from Cards -3 to Pack -2.5.

When I got over the shock of seeing a road #6 seed as a favorite in a conference championship, my thought was Vegas simply said, “You know what, we know you’re going to bet Green Bay anyway, here.  Deal with this.  Minus three, Bitches.”  And bitches did deal, the original line I saw had GB -3 and the next thing it’s -3.5 and even -4 at some places.  This in spite of the fact that the teams split the season series, and the Packers only won the final game in Green Bay, a game they had to win, and a game that meant nothing to Chicago, 10-3.

There is one crucial stat that GB supporters can look to and that’s point differential.  Did you know that the Packers were second in the NFL in point differential at +148?  This with Aaron Rodgers missing time and/or half woozy at points during the season.  And now he’s healthy.  This is where people seriously betting GB make their case.  The Packers, when healthy this year, play so well, that you have to ignore the ridiculousness of betting against a home underdog, that this Packer team is one of those special teams where guidelines like home field advantage don’t really apply.  Hence why they walk into Chicago a favorite, as they walked into Atlanta as a pick ‘ em against a well rested team that had beaten them two months earlier.

For my money (and I mean that, I have 50 dollars on this with JaPan) I am going with Chicago.  I actually grabbed them at +3 thinking the line would only move in the direction of a pick em, oops.  I could see Cutler throwing 4 INTs, one or more for a pick 6, and GB winning 38-14.  But at the end of the day I think of this game as being pretty even from a match-up perspective, with the key differences being the game is in Chicago and I am getting 3 points right from the kickoff.  We’ll see what happens.  The team Green Bay finished second to in point differential?  The Patriots, oops.

As for Jets/Pitt, my gut is to like the Jets at +3.5.

Week 17 Picks

Steelers -6 (-125) I just see Pittsburgh, with a “win-and-get-in” situation for the bye and the division, take care of a struggling Browns team at home today.  Plus out of all the lines where this type of situation occurs, this one is the most reasonable to bet on, even with the juice.

Falcons -13 John Fox just got canned, the Falcons lost a very winnable game on Monday night versus the Saints, and homefield is on the line for Atlanta.  You know Mike Smith must of gave these guys hell in the meetings this week watching the Saints game film, especially on offense where they had problems running the ball.  Methinks they take it out on the Panthers today, and be motivated enough to get a big lead to pull starters in the 4th.

Packers/Bears Over 42 Resting or no resting, these teams will score a lot today, especially with how good Rodgers looks at home vs the Giants this week, and the Bears getting big plays in between 5-6 plays of superior mediocrity on offense led by Jay Cutler.  Plus Cutler COULD throw a few TDs to the Packers D, too.  And you throw in the Devin Hester, but I doubt that because the Packers were dumb enough to kick to him on Week 4 and paid the price

4 team Teaser @ 3-1 (You can also add the Packers -4 in this one @ 4.5-1 if the Falcons game is already decided as then the Bears will just be resting people):

Steelers PK

Colts -4

Ravens -4

Falcons -8

For those of you paying attention…

And you know who you are…sean is lighting it up.  If you look at Sean’s picks it is amazing how common sense his approach is.  Talking about jets/bears over, “too much talent on the field here to not score.”  Discussing the Packers, “Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs.”  So what does he do, he bets accordingly.  He saw the same line we all did, Ravens -3.5 at Cleveland and while we were all rationalizing how the Browns would cover, Sean bet the Ravens.  Well done, Sean.

Week 16 Picks

GB -3 vs NYG

Eli Manning (who NEVER talks) spoke up in the locker room this week, telling his team to shake off that last epic fail of a loss vs Philly and speaking the importance of this game vs Green Bay, who looked awesome on Sunday night and probably would of won if Rodgers started.  Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs (and they arn’t coached by Norv Turner), so I’m gonna take the pack here to take care of business at home and grab that final 6th playoff spot.

Teaser: NYG/CHI O 30 + HOU/DEN O 43

Even though a Rex Ryan led defense is always ready to play “foot-ball“, too much talent on the field here to not score. Houston and Denver are starting turnstiles on their defensive lines (minus Mario Williams) vs two teams who can run the ball with anybody with Foster and Tebow.

I mean ,the Jets are just destined to make the AFC Championship game vs the Pats, where they are losing 35-10 i nthe 4th quarter as fans chant, “smell our feet!”, right?

Rams -3

Because I think the football gods will NOT allow a 7-9 team to get into the playoffs (Imagine that line!).

Lou & Pat’s Open Bets

As most of the readers of this site are aware, Pat & I have significant action with one another on some NFL regular season bets that are still very much undecided with 4 weeks to go. By far the most interesting is Kansas City to win the AFC West at 10:1. Here’s the situation headed into week 13 courtesy of Rany Jazayerli.

The Chargers are only one game back, and of course they still have a home game left against the Chiefs.

If the Chargers win that game, not only do they make up the difference in the standings, they would take the lead in tiebreakers. The teams would finish even head-to-head, but a loss to the Chargers would mean that the best record the Chiefs could finish with in-division is 3-3.

The Chargers would have two wins in the division, meaning they’d only need to beat either Oakland or Denver to win the tiebreaker. That’s because, even if the Chiefs and Chargers both finish with the same in-divison record, the Chargers will almost certainly win the third tiebreaker, which is a team’s record in common games.

The Chiefs and Chargers share 14 of the 16 games on their schedule; the only two games which are not shared are Buffalo and Cleveland (for the Chiefs) and New England and Cincinnati (for the Chargers). The Chiefs were 2-0 in non-common games; the Chargers lost to New England already and haven’t played the Bengals yet. If both teams finish, say, 10-6 overall, then the Chiefs would be 8-6 in common games; the Chargers would be at least 9-5, and would win the division.

The implications of all this:

1) There’s no way to over-state the importance of the Chiefs-Chargers game in San Diego in two weeks. For the Chargers, it’s really a must-win game – if they lose that game, they’ll be two games back and lose a tiebreaker. If the Chiefs win that game, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of San Diego in the standings if they finish 10-6. If the Chiefs beat San Diego, not only are they guaranteed to win the division if they finish 11-5, but their guaranteed to win the division if they finish 10-6 unless Oakland wins their last five games.

If the Chiefs lose to San Diego, they lose control of their destiny. If they lose to the Chargers, then even if the Chiefs win their other four games, they have to hope San Diego loses somewhere else along the way.

In short: the Chiefs are more likely to win the division with a 10-6 record and a victory in San Diego, than with an 11-5 record and a loss in San Diego.

This jives with all of the playoff odds reports I’ve seen. It also makes sense intuitively. The Chargers are clearly the better team but are one game behind. Assuming both teams win this weekend, it creates an optimal hedging opportunity in week 14 when the Chiefs travel to Kansas City. Given that it will be extremely difficult for the loser of that game to win the division, I can bet the Chargers moneyline with confidence and lock in a profit regardless of the result. We’ll go over those options in detail next week.

Pat & I also have our confidence pools for season wins. 5 points for the first team on the list decreasing to 1 for the last. Our picks were as follows:

Pat

Oakland OVER 6
San Francisco OVER 8.5
San Diego UNDER 11
Tennessee OVER 8
NY Giants OVER 8.5

Lou

Dallas UNDER 10
Baltimore OVER 10
Houston UNDER 8
SD UNDER 11
Cincinnati UNDER 8

After a rough first month, Pat’s picks are looking a lot better though I’m helped enormously by the fact the Dallas was kind enough to hit their under by week 8 or so. One way to see where we stand is by how many wins or losses are required by each team for us to hit our respective numbers. I have already hit on Dallas and Cincinnati, but every other bet is still alive. These are all with 5 games to play with the exception of Houston who lost last night.

Pat
Oakland 2 wins (1 to push)
San Francisco (5 wins)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Tennessee 4 wins (3 to push)
NY Giants 2 wins

Lou
Dallas 0 losses
Baltimore 3 wins (2 to push)
Houston 2 losses (1 to push, from 4 games)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Cincinnati 0 losses

If San Francisco and Houston win some games in December, this will become much closer again. Of course, Pat will crush me in baseball wins again in the spring and the cycle will likely continue.

Glad I Spent 600+ Words Ripping Chicago

The curse of the blog continues? In all fairness it was a very well played game, at home, by the Bears and absolutely horrendous play calling by the Eagles. Can anyone explain to me why the Eagles kicked field goals in the 4th quarter down 31-13 and 31-16?

Some other notes:

– We’ve now found the level of quarterback at which the Texans defense becomes NFL level calibre. That level is called Rusty Smith.

– Is Matt Lineart really a worse QB than the collection of guys Arizona has been trotting out all season?

– Packers/Falcons was the best game I’ve seen all season.

– Week 13 lines are up. Who is the 3-team teaser this week?

Lastly, some Grey Cup highlights from a video recording on some Canadian dude’s TV. Sounds about right.

Da Bears

I’m on record publicly as being skeptical of the Bears’ success so far this season (and Tampa to a lesser extent, though I’ll leave that for another post). It’s not that Chicago has a terrible team, they’re easily a mid-table side capable of beating most teams at home and are expected underdogs on the road versus all but the bottom 20-25% of the league. Their defense is very good and their special teams are back to being excellent again.

The offense however, is offensive. They’ve yet to score 30 points in a game this season and are still near the bottom of the league in short yardage, an improvement over ranking 32nd in 2009. Cutler and the skill players are not bad, but obviously their line is atrocious and is preventing the Bears from being a Super Bowl contender.

Similar to college basketball, road records can often tell you a lot about the actual quality of a team. Beating teams at home isn’t particularly indicative of a good team. Teams with poor home records, however, are almost never good. Only six teams have recorded four or more road wins this season: Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa and Chicago. The first three are among the best in the league, Miami has been horribly unlucky and I’ll cover Tampa in a later post. Looking at the Bears road wins, they’ve beaten two teams without an NFL caliber QB (Carolina and Miami), the 2-8 Bills and the 3-7 Cowboys. Sorry if I’m not overly convinced.

All of this is merely a preview for determining the proper odds on Chicago losing their last 6 games in a row. Their schedule is arguably the toughest in the league down the stretch:

vs PHI (+3.5) (Eagles ML is -178)
@ DET
vs NE
@ MIN
vs NYJ
@ GB

If we set lines on all of these games, we can then convert to an approximate moneyline and then throw all of these in a parlay calculator to see what the payout should be.

We’ll start with the Packers because it’s the easiest of the 5 remaining to handicap. The Jets host the Bungles this weekend and Baltimore is at home to Tampa. Both of those games are a similar type matchup to Bears @ Green Bay and those games are both -9, -400.

New England and the Jets are both of similar quality to the Eagles and we’ll install both of them at -4, -200.

This leaves divisional road games at Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit is 2-2 at home, routing the Rams, beating the Redskins and losing by a FG to the Jets and Eagles. They are 6.5 point underdogs Thursday at home to New England. I could make an argument Detroit should be favored, but we’ll make the game a pickem for our purposes here. As far as Minnesota, they could have given up on the season by the time this game rolls around. I think this is the Bears best chance to win out of the 6 and will make Minnesota a +1.5, +120 underdog.

Entering these in the parlay calculator (-400, -200, -200, -178, -100, +120) yields a payout of 18.33/1. If you up New England and the Jets to -6, -270 favorites, the payout drops to 15.13 which is pretty close to what I offered Pat if I may say so…

I’ll still take action on this at 15, but there’s no way I can do 12. Even moving the Lions to -140 and the Packers to -450, along with the Jets @ Pats adjustments still leaves it at 12.5. I’ll offer Pat a compromise and say I’m willing to go a low as 14:1 just because I think this will be a fun bet to make and as Pat mentioned, I can’t actually bet this anywhere else.