Category: NFL
Sunday
2-1 yesterday on NCAA, 5-5 -0.24 for the season. Not much doing in NFL today. Bovada is kind enough to still have +4 on Tennessee at home to SF which I would play if it were available to me. It’s not so I’m passing. I may be able to run a small teaser to take advantage of Bookmaker’s shitty lines, but it will need to win until 15-20 minutes prior to kickoff.
I’ll update again in a bit.
UPDATE: Just a small 3-team round robin teaser today. GB -2.5, BAL +8.5, and CAR -1
UPDATE 2: 1/2 unit on Indy +6
Quick Hits
“Looooooooooots of action!” as Karna would say, trying to recover from a disastrous Thursday.
NCAA:
Texas A&M vs Auburn Over 72 (Manziel has been killing these overs. A&M’s defense isn’t very good, either).
UFC:
Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga +150 (Brazilian, fights out of Ludwig, MA. Good veteran, has won last 3 fights by TKO. Fighting Shawn Jordan, who used to play DT at LSU..athletic but raw talent who has won last 4 fights).
Sad Friday
We came close to a miracle cover last night but Arizona was ultimately stopped on a late 4th down in a Seattle win. It honestly looked and felt like a college game where one team was just more talented than the other. 3-1 on my abbreviated NFL season to date for +1.8 as I had the same action last night as I did on Oakland last week.
Edmonton was also a loser in hockey 3-2 as was Sean’s #Loustrong parlay. One hockey game tonight, Phoenix +135
Thursday Night Crapball
The NFL wants to do another one of these Thursday games, and maybe even a West Coast 10pm game?
I guess the boys in New York enjoy setting money on fire (because if you’d take away one Sunday game – I guarantee you over time, a Sunday game will get more of a ratings share than BOTH of the Thursday Night games combined).
Television is still so bad however that TNF has beaten prime time network ratings 14-out-of-15 weeks (the only show to beat it was “Big Bang Theory”, which I still believe is a propaganda OP to get me to watch LESS television).
While I am not always a fan of the Sports Hub’s 98.5’s Michael Felger, he did keep it real when he said: (during the time of the lockouts of NFL/NHL): “its amazing how these guys seem to make boatloads of money….despite trying their best to get in their own way!”.
It’s an incredible level for sure to have a league, right after PBS’ documentary, “League of Denial” (about it the NFL’s corporate denial of concussions causing brain disease CTE), respond with a PR campaign along with throwing money at the problem to be “serious about player safety”…..only to do something that compromises that very goal (just to make “more money”).
This also goes for 18 game seasons: how the fuck am I going to bet on this shit when half the players on the teams’ playing are on the injured list?
Of course, the rumor could of been a “PR flyer” by the NFL (an organization releases a rumor to see if it would get positive/negative reaction, and then proceed to make a move based off of said reaction). They’ve denied it:
Wondering where the idea of Thursday night doubleheaders came from? So are we. We have not considered this
— Brian McCarthy (@NFLprguy) October 16, 2013
As for the game tonight, I think it is actually toss up. Seattle could blow them out, Arizona could make it a slugfest. Arizona is currently +7 on Bovada (-140). This will be the first of three straight games at home for the Cardinals, who will attempt to try to win their first divisional game of the 2013 NFL Season. Seattle comes into town with the league’s second ranked defense and 10th ranked offense (which Lou has noted, is banged up). Arizona’s defense is also good, and they have won 7-out-9 at home versus Seattle (in which the under has hit in the last four games, due to the classic division-style, “slobberknocker” games). These style of games are so fucking awful to watch on television. The NE Patriots v NY Jets Week 2 game was maybe one of the worst sporting events I have ever attended (although it won’t beat a shitty NBA game)…..and I root for one of the teams.
I then, in the spirit of craptastic football, like the under 41 (-110) tonight between these two uninspiring football teams on this inspiring day of the week (although both teams do make, and give up, spectacular plays).
I’m also doing a $5-for-$30 parlay special, inspired by Lou with both Edmonton +130 and Arizona +200. Let’s add the over in the Edmonton/NY Islanders game at 6 (EVEN) as well, since I am so far up 2 units on the trend of higher goal scoring (maybe due to less goalie pads as I have noted in a previous post).
Tweet of the Week:
Just heard breaking news: Washington Redskins dropping Washington from their name because it is embarrassing.
— Scott McNealy (@scottmcnealy) October 15, 2013
Beep…Beep…Beep
That’s the sound of a truck backing up to dump piles of smelly American dollars on what should be a craptastic Thursday night football game in Arizona where the Cardinals are hosting Seattle. Arizona is down to +5.5 in some places so make sure to get your plays in at 6 if at all possible. I already took 6.5 earlier in the week. Public is around 70% on Seattle even though their entire offense at the moment consists of a banged up Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson running around.
We’re not betting a house like mentioned in last’week posting especially not at only 5.5, but a truck at 6 or 6.5 seems like the right amount.
In other news, I’ve been backtesting an NHL system that seems promising so that’s going to start tonight. Like baseball, every bet is 1u with the idea that they’ll add up to more than they started with at the end of the season. Unlike baseball, this system is road team focused so we’ll see how that goes.
Lastly, good job Sean on the over yesterday.
UPDATE:
Plays tonight: Arizona +6.5 and +225. Pinnacle has the line down to 4 from 6 this morning. Someone’s truck who is a lot bigger than mine is also backing up to Arizona here.
In hockey, Edmonton +135
NFL Monday
I didn’t make it back here to the site to post, but Pat can confirm I took New England prior to kickoff and was rewarded with a miracle cover victory thanks to the Saints strange ineptitude running a four-minute offense. The loss was very Cowboy-esque. 3-0 +3.00 for me on the NFL season.
One play tonight and that’s on the Chargers to win outright at evens at home to Indy.
NFL Week 6
2-2 for me for a slight loss on college football yesterday. I watched zero games again putting me on a total of zero games watched for the season. 3-4 -1.42 on the season.
Nothing doing for me in early NFL plays, though I did see fit to throw out a seven team teaser thanks to some discrepancies between the Bookmaker & Pinnacle lines:
KC -1.5
BAL + 8.5
CLE +8.5
CAR +8.5
HOU -1.5
PIT +7.5
NO +8.5
I’d love to bet on Tennessee today, but the line is down to 12 or worse. Lots of line moves this week, s hopefully everyone else was able to get on some teams at the price they wanted. Hopefully I’ll get in a play (New England) on the late games. I had Washington marked down all week, but it’s in the top 5 of the Hilton contest and so it’s excluded as an option for me. Hilton top 5 picks are something like 6-18 on the season.
If I only had a time machine….
The line of the week for Week 6 is the Denver Broncos -27 line versus Jacksonville (once -28). It’s the biggest line on record, and quite possibly one of the funniest things I have ever seen on a Monday morning. It is the highest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Will the Jags cover, even if Henne plays? Since 2003, dogs of 20+ have gone 4-0 ATS (and those 4 four times the favorites have been the NE Patriots). The Patriots have been a nightmare for sports books in the modern era; sportsbooks couldn’t stop losing because everyone was on them early in 2007 and 2011 when they were destroying everybody (and covering). Then once they didn’t cover, all the money kept coming in against them (and the Pats either won close, or lost those games). As one sports bookie put it: “There was nothing we could do.”
Historically, according to The Gold Sheet (sports-betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s), the line of minus 28 ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. The Falcons, of course, covered. In 1976, expansion Tampa (quarterbacked by South Carolina Gamecock’s coach Steve Spurrier) were 26-point dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers…..and promptly lost 42-0
I’m almost tempted to take the Jags because it *is* so many points; you’d also have to think it’s a motivating factor in that locker room to cover the spread (because I am sure even they know they won’t win). Either way, I do like the Over at 53 (-110). Denver’s defense is not that good; I do think the Jags *could* score 17-20 on them (especially when garbage time hits). Denver will probably break the season’s total points scored and average per game record, and put up at least another 35-41 here.
Seattle -14 (EVEN) v TEN
Ryan “My mom has met Pat Darts” Fitzpatrick on the road against the best home team, and defense, in football? Yes plz.
Teaser: CIN (-7 vs Buffalo) + SF (-11 vs ARI) + SEA (-14 vs TEN) at +165
Probably also take Cincy on the road at the -7 as well. I mean, the defense hasn’t allowed a 300 yard passer in 18 straight games…which in this era, is pretty fucking good. I am not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but I am a huge fan of betting against practice squad QBs (like Thaddus Lewis).
Washington R.G. Threes (+6, -120) vs Dallas
I get to do one of my favorite past times: betting against the Cowboys. These 2 teams always play close games.
CFL Bonus pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9.5, EVEN) vs Edmonton
Saskatchewan comes home from a two game road trip at 12-3. They are considered the best defense in the CFL. Edmonton’s team nickname is the “Eskimos”. And we are gambling!
When to Bet your House on an NFL Game
I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6. It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season, but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified. When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side. Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight. Here is the NFL Criteria:
1) The Public is on the other team
This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site. I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports. The Public was 80% on San Diego last night. and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.
2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage
Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site. The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too. Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good. Playoff games count too. A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.
3) The opponent is “Fragile”
I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road. Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy. Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.
4) The team in question is getting points
It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover. Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.
Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games. I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them. I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people. Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games. Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.
The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.
Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23
San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31
Dallas Cowboys 25 (-11)at Buffalo Bills 24
New York Giants 17 vs. New England Patriots 14 (-12.5)
New York Jets 3 (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 (-10) at Cleveland Browns 13
New Orleans Saints 36 (-10) at Seattle Seahawks 41
This is the Marshawn Lynch Game where the Seahawks, who won their division at 7-9 got to host the 11-5 Saints.
San Diego Chargers 17 (-6) at Oakland Raiders 27
NFL Sunday
I’m just waking up but have plenty of time to get in my one play this week, Chargers @ Oakland +4.5. A night game for Raiders fans and Philip Rivers on the road and I still get points? That’s because the Raiders are terrible, but I’ll take them this week anyway.
2-0 in college yesterday so I’m 3-4 on the season there for -1.22.
