Category: NFL
Monday
Mixed NFL day yesterday only salvageable by the fact that I bet larger on the winners and smaller on the losers where it was just as easy to do the opposite. I could have passed on the losers entirely but couldn’t help myself to more action on shitty teams. Edmonton lost in hockey 3-2.
Nothing much on the schedule for today. I’m having trouble logging into my Bookmaker account, so the exciting UC Riverside/Northern Colorado game tonight will have to wait. Winnipeg and Toronto are close passes in NHL.
Week 15
Ill go with these @ 19.
Dolphins -2.5 -113
Browns +1 -113
Bucs +4.5 -105
Texans/Colts Under 47 -105
NFL Sunday
Interesting NFL Sunday shaping up with the public over 2/3 on on team or another in 8-9 games today. Week 9 in 2012 had a similar setup and the public won big.
At the end of the third quarter of the early NFL games on Sunday, Las Vegas Hotels Super Book vice president Jay Kornegay knew he needed more money at the front of the sportsbook.
“I’ve been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday,” Kornegay said. “We call for more money a couple times a year, but never like this.”
Before the day started, Kornegay and his team went over the teams that its bettors loved that week: Denver, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, Houston, Chicago and Seattle.
All of them were favorites. All of them won.
Just a brief word of warning before blindly betting against the public in every game. We’ll see if I ignore my own advice or not.
Stanford Under was a close loser yesterday.
NFL Plays:
Minnesota +6 -105 & +6.5 -110 & Minnesota +227 to win outright. Easily the best play of the day.
Smaller plays:
Giants +9
Tampa +4.5
Oakland and Rams are options at 4:00. Good luck today.
UPDATE 1: Arizona/Tennessee OVER 42.5
UPDATE 2: Oakland is up to +6 so I will have a go. 1/2 unit play like the non-Minnesota ones above. Oilers in hockey are possible play later tonight.
UPDATE 3: Passing on Edmonton tonight 3-3 +1.635 on the day.
Sunday Week 15 bets
Cleveland +1 vs CHI (Betting against Jay Culter, coming off an injury, against a Cleveland team at home that is keeping every game close? Yes, please. The only thing I worry about is the damn CLE coaching stuff fucking this up. I’m also betting props against Pat Darts’ fantasy reject Alshon Jeffery under TDs 1 at +110 and under 75.5 yards at -125).
SF -6 at TB (I just think SF is too physical for this team. They are also fighting for a WC spot).
ATL/WAS Over 50 (Washington as a team is a mess right now, and their defense has been so all year. Also will throw this in teaser with ATL -6, going against my “don’t throw the Falcons in a teaser” logic….but the entire WAS situation I think is just that bad)
Teaser: CAR -10 + Under 41.5 + KC -6 at OAK (all at +140)
CAR/NYJ Under 41.5
Marshawn Lynch (SEA at NYG) Hedge Props: Under 79.5 yards (-120) and under 1 TD (+130)
Manning Hedge
First of all, I *might* have a gambling problem taking the Islanders +155 tonight @Phoenix. But we trust Lou who is *hot* at NHL #hesonfire
More later in the week on the Bears’ awful decision to start Jay Cutler, and why we will be betting Cleveland everywhere. BTW, the Bears are 1-6 this year ATS when Cutler starts. IMO, the Bears are probably the worst team to bet on of all time historically; they don’t blow people out and they sometimes lay unexpected STINKERS on the road. This was happening before Cutler, but his douchiness exacerbates the problem.
I wish I could parlay the 2 unders and 1 over (INT) below as I have Peyton Manning in *2* fantasy league playoffs tonight. I will be taking all 3 individually however (also teasing SD +10 with the under 57.5):
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8:25p
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Over
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Monday Night Football
Two losers yesterday and to make things worse, Cleveland covered easily despite the line move taking out my play of the week. I will now be a degenerate gambler and chase yesterday’s losses with a bet on Monday.
Bears to win outright -125
In all seriousness, this play lines up well and I like it only slightly less than Cleveland earlier in the week. Full unit play for me.
Not much doing in hockey again after an empty weekend. Columbus is tempting at +175 but only because over 90% of the betting public is currently on Pittsburgh. If I decide to break the model and go with them, it will be for a half unit play. Islanders are another option in a west coast game if the line moves a bit more.
Good luck out there.
UPDATE: This Islanders game is really marginal and will probably lose but I’m going to gamble it up and play it anyway. Islanders +175
NFL Plays
All of these bets are @ 17
Browns +10 -113
Bills +2.5 +113
Eagles -2.5 -107
Chiefs/Skins Under 44 -108
Pats/Browns Under 47.5 -106
Raiders/Jets Over 39.5 -102
Colts/Bengals Under 43 -110
AND Note for me and Lou – Raiders Under @ 125
***UPDATE***
Tenn +13 -110
Cards -4 -110
Giants +4 -106
Giants/Chargers O/U 47 -103
I Am Hungover
Two winners yesterday. Yay. The NFL lines have moved to where I don’t want them and so the one game that was worth betting, Cleveland @ New England is down to 10 or even 9,5 in some places from 11 or 11.5 earlier in the week. The Browns are the team to take here but I am passing unless the line goes back to 10.5. Unlikely and sad.
At 4:00, Tennessee and the Giants are options and Carolina is the side to be on in the late game. Bears tomorrow in MNF I hope.
Nothing in hockey today, Winnipeg didn’t get below the public betting % I use as a filter yesterday but won anyway.
Good luck to everyone reading.
UPDATE: Washington/San Diego St. OVER 146.5. Half unit play
UPDATE 2: Carolina +3 for half a unit
More Sunday Bets
First, thanks to Lou for his Winnipeg suggestion yesterday, as we took the ML (+110) at a Stamkos-less TB Lighting team. The Jets won 2-1.
Also, thanks to Ohio State choking away the BCS title game last night, Auburn opens as a 7 point underdog to Florida State for the BCS title game. I kinda like Auburn here at first glance.
Second, I’ve added some more picks for today:
ATL at GB Under 44 (it’s going to snow in Lambeau today, and Rodgers isn’t playing)
Teaser: NE -10 and IND/CIN Under 44
Teaser BAL -7 (+105) and Under 41.5 (it’s snowing in BAL today)
Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
