Category: NFL
Positive Variance
Three sports and four winners yesterday made for a stark contrast to Thursday’s plays. I even missed getting in a play on Dallas/San Jose which the Sharks won in a shootout. Still a bit grouchy I didn’t get +175 on a coinflip, but the result worked out this time.
NFL today, Houston is the primary play this week at home to Denver +10. Other leans are on Washington, Indy, Minnesota, Oakland and Tennessee. I am going to take Indy with the line move +7.5. Indy/KC Over 47 is a close pass for me as well.
Nothing in NBA or NHL today and there is no college football. College hoops has some totals action today:
Purdue/West Virginia Over 147.5 1u
E Washington/Penn St Over 141 1/2u
Boise St @ Hawaii Over 160.5 1/2u
Good luck today.
Week 16 Plays
New Orleans ML +155 (I figure the public would be heavy on CAR, plus their defense doesn’t do well against teams that spread it out. Saints due for a road win here).
Teaser: Cleveland +10 and Over 33.5 (I can’t believe I just typed that lol. Either way, someone wins this game 20-17)
Teaser: Seattle -10 vs ARI and Under 49.5
Denver at Houston Over 53 (These defenses stink)
Packers -1 vs PIT
San Diego -10 vs OAK (this is a hedge vs SD Under totals bet. Darts might bets the Raiders here ;)
Monday
Mixed NFL day yesterday only salvageable by the fact that I bet larger on the winners and smaller on the losers where it was just as easy to do the opposite. I could have passed on the losers entirely but couldn’t help myself to more action on shitty teams. Edmonton lost in hockey 3-2.
Nothing much on the schedule for today. I’m having trouble logging into my Bookmaker account, so the exciting UC Riverside/Northern Colorado game tonight will have to wait. Winnipeg and Toronto are close passes in NHL.
Week 15
Ill go with these @ 19.
Dolphins -2.5 -113
Browns +1 -113
Bucs +4.5 -105
Texans/Colts Under 47 -105
NFL Sunday
Interesting NFL Sunday shaping up with the public over 2/3 on on team or another in 8-9 games today. Week 9 in 2012 had a similar setup and the public won big.
At the end of the third quarter of the early NFL games on Sunday, Las Vegas Hotels Super Book vice president Jay Kornegay knew he needed more money at the front of the sportsbook.
“I’ve been in this business for 26 years, and I have never seen what I saw yesterday,” Kornegay said. “We call for more money a couple times a year, but never like this.”
Before the day started, Kornegay and his team went over the teams that its bettors loved that week: Denver, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, Houston, Chicago and Seattle.
All of them were favorites. All of them won.
Just a brief word of warning before blindly betting against the public in every game. We’ll see if I ignore my own advice or not.
Stanford Under was a close loser yesterday.
NFL Plays:
Minnesota +6 -105 & +6.5 -110 & Minnesota +227 to win outright. Easily the best play of the day.
Smaller plays:
Giants +9
Tampa +4.5
Oakland and Rams are options at 4:00. Good luck today.
UPDATE 1: Arizona/Tennessee OVER 42.5
UPDATE 2: Oakland is up to +6 so I will have a go. 1/2 unit play like the non-Minnesota ones above. Oilers in hockey are possible play later tonight.
UPDATE 3: Passing on Edmonton tonight 3-3 +1.635 on the day.
Sunday Week 15 bets
Cleveland +1 vs CHI (Betting against Jay Culter, coming off an injury, against a Cleveland team at home that is keeping every game close? Yes, please. The only thing I worry about is the damn CLE coaching stuff fucking this up. I’m also betting props against Pat Darts’ fantasy reject Alshon Jeffery under TDs 1 at +110 and under 75.5 yards at -125).
SF -6 at TB (I just think SF is too physical for this team. They are also fighting for a WC spot).
ATL/WAS Over 50 (Washington as a team is a mess right now, and their defense has been so all year. Also will throw this in teaser with ATL -6, going against my “don’t throw the Falcons in a teaser” logic….but the entire WAS situation I think is just that bad)
Teaser: CAR -10 + Under 41.5 + KC -6 at OAK (all at +140)
CAR/NYJ Under 41.5
Marshawn Lynch (SEA at NYG) Hedge Props: Under 79.5 yards (-120) and under 1 TD (+130)
Manning Hedge
First of all, I *might* have a gambling problem taking the Islanders +155 tonight @Phoenix. But we trust Lou who is *hot* at NHL #hesonfire
More later in the week on the Bears’ awful decision to start Jay Cutler, and why we will be betting Cleveland everywhere. BTW, the Bears are 1-6 this year ATS when Cutler starts. IMO, the Bears are probably the worst team to bet on of all time historically; they don’t blow people out and they sometimes lay unexpected STINKERS on the road. This was happening before Cutler, but his douchiness exacerbates the problem.
I wish I could parlay the 2 unders and 1 over (INT) below as I have Peyton Manning in *2* fantasy league playoffs tonight. I will be taking all 3 individually however (also teasing SD +10 with the under 57.5):
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8:25p
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Over
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Monday Night Football
Two losers yesterday and to make things worse, Cleveland covered easily despite the line move taking out my play of the week. I will now be a degenerate gambler and chase yesterday’s losses with a bet on Monday.
Bears to win outright -125
In all seriousness, this play lines up well and I like it only slightly less than Cleveland earlier in the week. Full unit play for me.
Not much doing in hockey again after an empty weekend. Columbus is tempting at +175 but only because over 90% of the betting public is currently on Pittsburgh. If I decide to break the model and go with them, it will be for a half unit play. Islanders are another option in a west coast game if the line moves a bit more.
Good luck out there.
UPDATE: This Islanders game is really marginal and will probably lose but I’m going to gamble it up and play it anyway. Islanders +175
NFL Plays
All of these bets are @ 17
Browns +10 -113
Bills +2.5 +113
Eagles -2.5 -107
Chiefs/Skins Under 44 -108
Pats/Browns Under 47.5 -106
Raiders/Jets Over 39.5 -102
Colts/Bengals Under 43 -110
AND Note for me and Lou – Raiders Under @ 125
***UPDATE***
Tenn +13 -110
Cards -4 -110
Giants +4 -106
Giants/Chargers O/U 47 -103
I Am Hungover
Two winners yesterday. Yay. The NFL lines have moved to where I don’t want them and so the one game that was worth betting, Cleveland @ New England is down to 10 or even 9,5 in some places from 11 or 11.5 earlier in the week. The Browns are the team to take here but I am passing unless the line goes back to 10.5. Unlikely and sad.
At 4:00, Tennessee and the Giants are options and Carolina is the side to be on in the late game. Bears tomorrow in MNF I hope.
Nothing in hockey today, Winnipeg didn’t get below the public betting % I use as a filter yesterday but won anyway.
Good luck to everyone reading.
UPDATE: Washington/San Diego St. OVER 146.5. Half unit play
UPDATE 2: Carolina +3 for half a unit
