Miracle Covers

NFL Lean 9.10.2015

One lean tonight that I have: the PIT/NE Under at 52 -115.

Factors that can contribute to the under tonight in my view:

Momentum: Everyone is saying that the Patriots will be fired up, especially with Brady playing, and will come out and kick ass tonight. Sometimes this also can work against you and you can play too high and become too tight and excited, when a snag or two happens in the game. Brady has also looked bad in preseason, but that also maybe due to the fact that he’s had alot of shit on his mind. TBH they are saving the “fuck you” game for the Colts in October…and the team will probably be more “in form” by then as supposed to now where they could be still, working out the kinks.

Both teams have O-Line issues: no Brian Stork tonight. The center was THE difference between the Pats O-Line playing well last year or playing bad. According to Greg Bedard of CNNSI, the guards also have looked mediocre at best in the preseason games. Replacement C David Andrews looked good in the preseason, but we’ll have to see how he and the rest of the O-Line handle an athletic Steelers Front 7 tonight. For the Steelers, Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey is not playing tonight.

Defenses: two of the NFL’s top Front Sevens face each other tonight. The Steelers have lots of athletic, highly drafted, young LBs, a new defensive coordinator (Brady has always owned the last PIT DC Dick LeBeau, who was there for like 30 years), along with vet James Harrison. The Patriots have one of the most diverse Front Sevens in all of football and they could be even better this year as they are 100% healthy. To point out a contrary analysis: both of these secondaries to me are “meh”. The Pats lost future Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis, Kyle Arrington, and Brandon Browner to FA and there’s a lot of young guys who are unproven replacing them (I can’t name who the #1 CB is, probably Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler). The Steelers have no idea who their safeties on are as I write this, and whoever it is has big shoes to fill since losing legend and future Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu. Both get a break tonight because for them, thankfully….

Injuries/Suspensions at Skill positions: Pats WR Brandon LaFell is on PUP. Edleman has been out of camp all summer and could be rusty (keep an eye on him and concussions; could be an issue this year). RB LeGarrette Blount is suspended (while with the Steelers) for being caught in a car by cops in Pittsburgh smoking a blunt with Steelers’ running back LeVeon Bell, widely considered one of the best RBs in all of football (and for fantasy folks, is great for PPR leagues). The Steelers are also without another fantasy sleeper, WR Martavius Bryant, who was ALSO caught smoking weed*.

*note to self: make sure to try the weed when in Pittsburgh.

Weather: from Pats play-by-play guy Scott Zolak who is already down at Gillette:

Torrential rain at Gillette, slow track

— scottzolak 🏈 (@scottzolak) September 10, 2015

It has been humid all week in New England, and the “skies are about to open” tonight, and it looks like the rain could also pick up during the 3rd and 4th quarters. According to Zolak as well, they aren’t covering the field as it pours in Foxboro as I write this. Expect a slow track tonight. The line is now at 51, and -109, on Nitrogen Sports.

Here are my DFS lineups for this week; I am usually not a fan but had to jump in at least for Week 1 and the $10m Guarantee on Draft Kings. As you can see, hints for what we are bullish on for Sunday with the player selections: DAL/NYG Over 52, and Rams +4.

DFS Lineups for Week 1 #NFL pic.twitter.com/JMFo9UyHR5

— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) September 10, 2015

DFS Lineup on Yahoo pic.twitter.com/6vLvuirNPE

— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) September 10, 2015

NFL Over/Under Season Preview

Just two days away from another season of degenerate gambling. Teasers, parlays, bitcoin live betting, long shots, big favorites, Pat Darts losing money while doing nips of 100 proof Root Beer Vodka…….man, is it great to have football back!

Here are my season over/under previews; these are always my favorite and some of my most profitable bets. We went 3-1 last year here, let’s try to continue the upward trend in 2015.

Carolina Panthers Under 8.5 -105

I “snap called” this the minute Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina’s #1 wide receiver, was confirmed on twitter to being lost for the season with an injury. Carolina has a good defense, and their schedule is of average strength, but I just don’t see how they move the ball without this guy. Last year, Carolina had 20 pass plays over 20 yards; Benjamin accounted for 8 of them. They plan on putting “Fat Boy” Mike Tolbert at WR. The only WR I know of on the depth chart is 40 year old Jerricho Cotchery, and their only real threat in the passing game is Greg Olsen (a TE Fantasy sleeper….*if* he can stay healthy). Because of all these injuries on the outside, their 3rd down performance will suffer. They also lost some running back depth to free agency. Cam Newton is a dynamic QB, but his running style and an average-at-best offensive line put his health in constant flux. Ron Rivera is their coach, a great defensive mind but he is not the best game manager (he is at +2000 to be the first fired). I think 8-8 is their ceiling, 6-10 most likely. This bet is now at -160, so we pounced on it (pun intended), at the right time.

Jacksonville Jaguars Over 5.5 -130

This was at -135 in Las Vegas, not a lot of action on this because, well, who knows about the Jacksonville Jaguars? They have a lot potential on the upside with good young players who have had a good camp and preseason: QB Blake Bortles (try to get him as a backup/matchup guy in your fantasy leagues; he threw the ball 70+ times this preseason), WR Allen Robinson, RB Denard Robinson (who has out-played high draft pick from Alabama, T.J. Yeldon, for the starting job). Paul Posluszny is one of the more underrated MLBs in all of football. Their schedule is of below average strength and their division is, IMO, the weakest of all of them (which is a reason Lou is bullish on the other team in the division, the Tennessee Titans). They did lose big FA signing TE Julius “Feather” Thomas for 4-6 weeks…but this bet was made even without him in mind, and more on the overall progression on Blake Bortles, who we are very bullish on. The only thing I worry about is the fact they play one of their games in London, and that Gus Bradley is a “meh” coach.

San Francisco 49ers Under 7 -150

Lou and I shipped this one last year as now University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh was on a lame duck year with the team and was clearly on his way out. The best unit for them last year was their defense; they have since lost: LB Patrick Willis (retirement), LB Chris Boreland (retirement), DL Ray MacDonald (released due to arrest), RB Frank Gore (Free Agency), and WR Michael Crabtree (Free Agency). Kaepernick is more of a “Madden” QB than a real life one, and their ownership is cheap and pretty much fails at life:

“They don’t believe in paying coaches right now. The word around the league in talking to people who are both coaches and who represent coaches, San Francisco is not the place to go to make money.”

If you don’t invest money in coaches, you better have a guy like Bill Belichick at the helm to make up for the slack (NE does this too; but BB gets the most out of his coaches and he has an eye for young coaching talent). If not? You’ll probably have a 3-13 season. The atmosphere around the team just stinks, and add to the fact they are in the toughest division in football in the NFC West that feature 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league. This bet is now at -210, especially since they will at some point most like lose LB Amhad Brooks to suspension due to grabbing some girls’ boob when she was passed out at Ray MacDonald’s house. What a fucking mess.

Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 -105

Part of this bet is pure schadenfreude, as we have often bet the Dallas under over the years anticipating the yearly fail that comes with their franchise. I snap called this bet this year when they had some major injuries to their secondary in CB Orlando Scandrick (who was having a great camp and is considered one of the best “slot CBs” in the NFL) and CB Brandon Carr. Add to the fact they lose RB DeMarco Murray to FA to their NFC East rival Phildelphia Eagles, they will now have a RB by committee approach featuring: Darren “Fantasy Sleeper who always gets hurt” McFadden, Christian “two first names” Michael, and Joseph “I steal designer underwear” Randle (he later got an underwear endorsement deal). Dez Bryant is a top 3 WR; but he is injury prone and his health is more important this year because of the loss of Murray. Ditto with Tony Romo; they lost him for a few games last year and did OK with Weeden (who stinks) under center because they could just hand the ball off to Murray. Can’t do that this year, even with the best OL in football, defenses will just make the Cowboys “prove” the other guys can produce. I do like Terrance Williams as a WR3/Flex in fantasy leagues. They also have a really tough schedule playing the AFC East (now with Brady playing all 16 games) and the NFC East, the second strongest division in football IMO. This bet is now at -125.

Washington D.C. Football Team Under 6.5 -165
(current: -175)

Usually the meme is to “save the best for last”….but this year, I saved the worst. You may ask yourself, “Sean, that is an awful lotta juice, kinda risky, no?”. Under most circumstances, you are right, so let’s make our case below with some of the highlights of failure that have come out of Fairfax, VA this summer:

– The team gets into a huge brawl with their summer session with the Texans. Then they get into a huge brawl with the Ravens in a preseason game. Not exactly the discipline you are looking for going into a season.

– The wife of the General Manager Tweets that a female ESPN Reporter only gets her access by “giving BJs”, after the reporter writes a critical story on the team. She denied the tweet, deleted it, only to then take it back and then apologize hours later….even though her family members say the Washington Brass pressured the GM’s Wife to apologize, (as she Suspected the GM and ESPN reporter were having an affair). Who needs “Hard Knocks” when you have “Days of Our Lives” going on in D.C.?

– The Robert Griffin III saga continues. It started when the owner, who sucks at life and who The Nation’s Dave Zirin calls, “the Donald Trump of the NFL”, gets a coach (Jay Gruden, +300 to be the first coach fired) whose only success was as a HC of an Arena Football team, has a pocket passing system as supposed to the zone read spread scheme that fits RG III’s style. RG III (who, I admit, doesn’t have the best demeanor is and is a bit too sure of his abilities) and Gruden, predictably, don’t hit it off…not the best thing for a locker room. The owner wants him as the start, and the coach clearly does not. RG III then gets a concussion in a preseason game, which then leads to speculation that the coaching staff is using the medical staff to keep RG III from playing so it forces Kirk Cousins to be the starter (the D.C. football team is 2-7 with him under center; former Washington coach Mike Shanahan says he can be a top 10 NFL QB…pretty much a kiss of death). The medical concussion expert for the team resigns, especially after a soccer player on twitter claimed he was misdiagnosed under this same quack a few years ago. In a sense, I don’t blame RG III’s attitude – we have all had shitty working conditions that affect our performance and I am curious to see how he does when he gets out of that shithole.

– Colt McCoy, meanwhile, stews on the bench wondering why he isn’t starting. When he was under center for them at the end of the year, the team showed fight and was competitive on offense and they beat Dallas on a Monday Night (we took the +7 that night here at Miracle Covers). That’s how bad Washington is; the best guy they have under center is Colt McCoy and they aren’t even starting him.

– The team is notoriously cheap. RG III’s knees buckled under their shitty grass field in a playoff game vs the Seahawks in 2012 because a)their CBs were awful and Coach Mike Shanahan wanted the field to be mucked up…which makes no sense because Seattle’s offense has more of a running attack and b) it would cost $5 million to replace the field (which Patriots owner Rob Kraft had to do in 2005 – the Pats have been the most consistent offense in football since). Former lineman Ross Tucker said the team tried to pressure him into renting a luxury box for $125,000…at the time, Tucker’s salary was only $300,000. Their best CB, DeAngelo Hall (lol to begin with), got hurt while grabbing a late night slice of pizza. They also didn’t resign Brian Orakpo in free agency.

– The team’s logo and nick name is abhorrent and creates a stink around the team.

In short, I am giddy to bet against the D.C. football team in 2015. They are 32 out of 32 on ESPN’s rankings. They *will* be the worst team in football this year, and that’s not only great for our bankrolls, but also for America.

Super Bowl

Today is the big day!  Here are my plays

Props:

Russell Wilson and Tom Brady to win MVP 13/4

Danny Amendola Over Yards 20.5 and Catches 2.5

John Ryan under longest gross punt 54.5

Tom Brady 1st play: pass completion -145

DJIA goes down day after EVEN

Tim Wright first TD 15/1

Edleman first TD 6/1

Field Goal/safety frst score +135

Bovada doesnt offer it, but Tim Wright Over catches 0.5 good value

Thoughts on the game:

I like Over (started at 49…now at 47).  I think there will be big plays by both teams and it will be a close game.  I like the Pats 27-26.

January 17

No plays tonight. We effectively pushed on NBA yesterday. Will have a look again tomorrow but hockey looks light again and NFL is probably going to be a pass with Indy and Seattle being the better option for each game.

NFL Sunday

Denver -7

The Colts front 7 is not every good.  CJ Anderson has a big day today

Green Bay -6 (-105)

I just can’t take Dallas with a free conscience.