Category: NFL
Thursday
A much needed 2-0 day for us yesterday as both Boston and Dallas were winners. We are close to breakeven on the season. Single play tonight: Florida +122 @ Philadelphia. Fun fact, the Flyers have won 11 games this season and I think we’ve been against them in 9 of them.
Slight lean on Jacksonville tonight though over the past two years that’s been about as useless as shorting the stock market.
Good luck this evening.
NFL Week 15
TB +3
Riding the Tampa train again; came close last week and we had a chance for miracle chopportunity at the end of the game as a drive petered out at the 10 yard line. No Cam Newton today; Derek Anderson beat the Bucs in Week 2 but they were a different team then and Tampa has been 60% ATS since their mauling in Atlanta.
CIN +1.5 (EVEN)
This started at +1 (-110). I don’t understand why it’s moving in the other direction, unless a bunch of fish are betting on Johnny Football. In their first meeting, AJ Green wasn’t playing and winds were at 15-20 mph in Cincinnati (which can be no jokes, especially for a QB like Dalton who has very little arm strength). This is also somewhat a hedge as I have taken both Baltimore (+450) and the Browns (+1200) to win the division.
TEASER: ATL +3 and OVER 55
This will be a close, entertaining, high score game with fail thrown in. Could be the game of the week. Means something to both teams.
TEASER (+450):
BAL -14, NE -10, KC -10, DET -8, CIN/CLE Under 44
Also a prop bet, which Darts hipped me onto the last time these two teams played: Over Total FG 3.5 (-110) in the SF at SEA game. These two teams kicked 6 FGs in their last meeting.
NOTES:
For those thinking about Miami, both Hightower and Chandler Jones are playing today.
Most bet NFL games:
1. Packers-Bills
2. Patriots-Dolphins
3. Cowboys-Eagles
Two most bet games are also the most lopsided: NE 77%, GB 75%.— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
Teams that will go Over their Season Win Total with a victory today:
Patriots
Packers
Eagles
Colts
Ravens
Steelers
Chargers
Texans
Vikings— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
NFL Sunday
Unlike Pat, I’m probably taking a single game and the line has since moved. Green Bay @ Buffalo +4 -115. Other leans this morning are Tampa, Kansas City, Washington and Miami. I will happily take Miami if it hits 10 but otherwise this and the other games are probably a pass. Will post any updates.
UPDATE: Bills easily covered the 4. Leans went 2-2. NBA because I’m an idiot Spurs -4
NFL
I say that but my first bet is…
Swansea v Tott Over 2.5 -116 @ 21
This is a flat out awful bet but I have a lot of fantasy players that need to do things so I am taking an anti-hedge. The reason I posted this as NFL is because I am going to bet on just about every football game in about 2 hours.
TNF
NFL:
I’m taking Lou’s Rams, who have back-to-back shutouts, -5 vs Arizona (EVEN) and also throwing in a teaser with the Under 40. Rams have played well at home lately, partly in due to the fact they are motivated by the unfortunate events in Ferguson, MO……as well as the fact they have THE outside of outside shots at actually winning their division (they would need to win tonight, AND a SF win vs SEA this Sunday to stay alive).
NHL:
Minnesota +115
And for your enjoyment, the goal of the year below by Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey:
Jeez…. Soccer is crazy "@NFVines: Aaron Ramsey's goal https://t.co/isLDLyLDhY"
— Rocc Lesnar (@GirlThatsRocco) December 11, 2014
Sunday
Another shit day for gambling as potential games continue to come off the board. It’s better to pass than force any plays, but the degenerate in all of us would like to have more action. Only a single game so far and that’s probably unlikely to change, Indy @ Cleveland +150. Feel free to take the +3 in lieu of the moneyline but I am going with the higher potential return. Jacksonville and the Jets are both out of consideration with line moves this morning, though I would consider Jacksonville if they get over +7. Options with the Chargers and Raiders this afternoon and evening.
NFL Week 14
NFL:
TB +10 (EVEN)
Started at -115. According to Chad Millman, the sharps love this one and so do I as I love betting against Jim Caldwell coached teams. Reggie Bush returns today, but he’ll get hurt in the 3rd quarter. Tampa is also 3-1 vs the spread in its last 4 games. The Lions will probably win by 3, but if you wanna take a flyer on the TB ML at +375, it’s not a bad play.
NO -10 (+110)
I hate taking the Saints, but they are at home and Carolina’s really banged up……especially Cam Newton, who probably shouldn’t be playing, and only is because the leader of the craptastic NFC South division is *2* games under .500.
IND at CLE Under 50
Way too high. Indy’s defense blows, but so does Cleveland’s offense. For those wondering why Johnny Manizel isn’t starting today, this maybe why: Jonathan Paul Manziel, born December 6, 1992 (which in that case, good decision Coach Pettine!).
MIN -4
Vikings playing well at the end of the year, and the Jets can’t throw the ball. This line probably should be 4.5 to 5.5.
SF – 9 (-105)
Hedge for our under bet. Also going to throw the ML (-450) in a parlay. SF’s last 4 games: at OAK, at SEA, SD, ARI. Seattle is probably the one loss that actually happens to ship our bet.
PARLAY (+700):
SF -450
MIN -4
SEA at PHI Over 47
IND at CLE Under 50
TEASER (+240):
NO -10
SF -9
TB+10
NBA BONUS:
Washington at Celtics Over 205 (-105). 8-0 so far with these. The OVER has hit in 16 of Boston’s last 21 games, and 12 out of 15 at home.
Boring Saturday
I can’t find a single game to wager on. NFL tomorrow
TNF
First, thanks to the Celtics and Pistons for going into OT last night at 88 a piece and then scoring 38 points in a wild 5 minute OT to secure the Over. 8-0 now! #miraclecover
Here are my plays tonight:
NFL:
Chicago/Dallas Over 51
Two of the worse defenses in the league. They both played last Thursday so no one really is in the mood to tackle, if they actually could tackle. Weather is a crisp 34 degrees, no wind (rare for Chicago) The only fly in the ointment here is if both teams play flat because they just played last Thursday (but remember: the NFL REALLY cares about player safety). Speaking of safeties, I’m also take a prop: first score is FG or Safety at +145.
NHL:
Going with Lou’s suggestions: Colorado +135 at Calgary (also works as a hedge as we have their season points under) and in a parlay at 3-to-1 with -150 Nashville, facing Martin Broudeur who comes out of psuedo-retirement as a member of the St.Louis Blues. He joins a long list of great HOF players who symbolize themselves with one team and end their careers (usually in a blaze of crap for one year) with another team where those jerseys get sold for $5 at the discount section at a Dick’ Sporting Goods store. Noteables:
Jerry Rice (Seahawks)
Ray Bourque (Colorado)
Emmitt Smith (Cardinals)
Michael Jordan (Wizards)
Brett Favre (NY Jets)
Karl Malone (Lakers)
Joe Montana (KC Chiefs)
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
