Category: NFL
Super Bowl
Today is the big day! Here are my plays
Props:
Russell Wilson and Tom Brady to win MVP 13/4
Danny Amendola Over Yards 20.5 and Catches 2.5
John Ryan under longest gross punt 54.5
Tom Brady 1st play: pass completion -145
DJIA goes down day after EVEN
Tim Wright first TD 15/1
Edleman first TD 6/1
Field Goal/safety frst score +135
Bovada doesnt offer it, but Tim Wright Over catches 0.5 good value
Thoughts on the game:
I like Over (started at 49…now at 47). I think there will be big plays by both teams and it will be a close game. I like the Pats 27-26.
Early Thoughts
First of all, who the hell ISN’T loving Ballgate? This below makes everything totally worth it; I just wonder whether or not this MOTIVATES the Pats (when they destroy teams after stuff happens like this) or if it DEFLATES them (see what I did there).
The Best Of Tom Brady’s Unintentional Balls Innuendo At His #Deflategate Press Conference http://t.co/cukh8KyMVH pic.twitter.com/QgedZjML9h
— BuzzFeed (@BuzzFeed) January 22, 2015
Former Pats’ QB Drew Bledsoe says that Tom is all about work ethic, and I certainly hope he’s right and I wouldn’t want Tom to pull a Ryan Braun on Drew.
As for any early leans, I don’t have any thoughts on the spread as of this point (the line moves have been interesting, however those who say they are the biggest moves in a while forget both the 2001 and 2007 Super Bowls, which saw big favorites lose 35-45% of their margins from start to finish), but I do like the over at 48.5 (-105), and the following props: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson for MVP (both at 13/4), and Bill Belichick to not be seen smiling for the entire game (-200).
1st look at LVH Super Bowl Props 2015 @beatingthebook pic.twitter.com/DZEfjpvA1S
— Harvey Haddix (@SportsDirector) January 23, 2015
Also an early UFC leans: Phil Davis vs Ryan Bader Goes Distance -260 and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (+220) in Sweden vs Alexander Gustafsson.
NBA BONUS: Love my Celtics, but have to take the Blazers -7 at home at the Rose Garden tonight. I’ve been there, it’s a great arena and I feel this line should be at -8.5 and above. The Celtics have not won against a Western team on the road since 2013.
NFL Championship Sunday
Seattle -7.5 (-105)
I have Seattle 13/2 to win the NFC, so I usually hedge with Green Bay here. But with a banged up Rodgers, an average running game, and the fact Green Bay got destroyed here in Week 1…..I just think Seattle gets it done today and becomes the first back-to-back Super Bowl attended since Denver in 1997 and 1998. I also like the Under (45, -115) as winds could get up to 60mph, effecting the passing games. I am more afraid of the miracle cover TD that means nothing than GB actually winning the game. GB basically lost this game when they lost to Buffalo at the end of the year (they would of had home field if they won).
The Seahawks have won 8 straight playoff games at home. Their 10-2 playoff record at home is tied for the best in NFL history.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 18, 2015
New England -7 (EVEN)
This is at 6-6.5 at some books. Very interesting game in terms of lines. My worry is that EVERYBODY is picking the Pats; no one is on the Colts and Lou even thinks they have a chance to win. The Pats are flawed, but this team this year just finds some way to pull games out of their ass (I am still watching the Edleman-to-Amendola TD on loop daily; the best part is the “awkward white guy high fives” and also Edleman winding his arm like its sore). Even if they lose 50% production on the running game as an aggregate average vs the last 3 times they’ve played the Colts, they would still gain 115.5 yards on the ground. Luck is a good QB, and has improved each year…..its not his time yet. It reminds me of a young LeBron carrying the Cavs on his back in 2007 just to get to the finals to lose to the Spurs (who the Pats are compared to often). Luck will be in many of these games, he just won’t win this one. Boom Herron somewhat scares me, but he’ll fumble the ball at a key moment. It is expected to POUR in the 3rd and 4th quarter; Brady’s record in bad weather game is ridiculous (I think he’s batting 90%, and has never lost in the snow).
I’m also going to be a total fish and parlaying the MLs for both Seattle (-340) and New England (-275) and putting them in a teaser (like 90% of America).
I also like the following props:
Which market will have the higher ratings: Boston +300 (yes, you can bet on this. As a guy who follows this stuff closely, this has a great chance as it is a) a game in primetime on a Sunday Night b) 3/4ths of all households watched the Pats game on a SATURDAY NIGHT c) Danny Amendola is playing and the people of New England cannot miss his brilliance).
Over Total receiving yards Danny Amendola 32.5 (-115)
He’s the J.D. Drew for this run; the overpaid guy who has underperformed (granted, due to injury) but then pulls brilliance out of his ass when it counts during a title run. Also, I don’t think the Colts secondary is all that good…Manning had guys wide open and missed them all day last week. Brady will not be as kind.
Will there be a two point conversion made? Yes @ +560
If the Colts are behind, they’ll probably have to attempt one at some point.
UFC Bonus:
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone +115
Ron “The Choir Boy” Stallings +525
1/18 – EPL and Championship Sunday
Our very fortunate day yesterday takes us to positive territory for the month. I wholeheartedly agree with Louis that Indy and Seattle are the best options later today and likely those will be the picks here barring weird line movement. For now…
West Ham vs Hull City Under 2 and 2.5 (-104) @ 14
Do not see making a play on Man City/Arsenal at this point.
YTD : +38.06
MTD : +38.06
****UPDATE****
Seattle -8 -110
Indy +6.5 +102
Both plays are @ 22. There will be a direct relationship in regards to freaky prop bets with alcohol intake throughout the day.
****UPDATE II****
Thunder/Magic Under 213.5 -103 @ 14
January 17
No plays tonight. We effectively pushed on NBA yesterday. Will have a look again tomorrow but hockey looks light again and NFL is probably going to be a pass with Indy and Seattle being the better option for each game.
NFL Sunday
Denver -7
The Colts front 7 is not every good. CJ Anderson has a big day today
Green Bay -6 (-105)
I just can’t take Dallas with a free conscience.
January 11
Mixed day again yesterday. 1-1 for a profit in hockey and 1-2 for a loss in NBA. I didn’t have any NFL action yesterday and also didn’t understand all the freaking out over the Patriots yesterday and somewhat again today. It’s not like the Ravens are actually the Raiders wearing purple unis. If your team plays like shit for the 1st half and is only down by 7 and nearly ended up only down 3, that’s a good outcome.
Nothing looks very good today. There might be some small value on the Pakcers moneyline if it gets down near -200 or so, but otherwise it’s probably a pass. Phoenix +5 in NBA in an early option, but nearing midseason I’m a very sad 13-16-2 -4.1. NHL is a positive 39-45-1 +4.44
NFL Saturday
2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?
I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals. The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is. I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.
The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money. The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.
Here are the picks:
Seattle -11 (-105)
I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers. It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada. Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense. These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit). I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play. But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one. I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road. The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead). I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7. One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards. These guys are just happy to be here.
New England -7
Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town. Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best. BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape. Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays. The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day. If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field. Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs. The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament. Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check. If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings. Wait, what? I only thought that happens in the NBA?
Side Thoughts:
Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190. This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due. I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.
Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.
NFL Sunday
2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive! Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO. For example:
Carolina just made gambling history: they sweated out a cover in a home playoff game against an offense that couldn't break 100 total yards.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 4, 2015
Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)
This was tough game to pick. Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham). Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run. The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close. Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts. The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%. Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however. But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….
Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)
All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots. Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams. The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times. Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor. And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”. Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse. It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.
TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5
2015 Day 4
Yesterday we won our Nashville play in one of the more ridiculous and entertaining games of the year. I asked on Twitter if anyone had stats on blown leads of three goals or more prior to the end of the 3rd as Nashville led 5-1 and 6-3 only to finish 7-6 winners in overtime. Everything else was a pass. Two NFL games this afternoon and I am on both
Bungles +3.5 @ Indy
Lions +6 @ Dallas
My only regret is not getting a better line earlier in the week (4 and 7 respectively). I’ll likely have an NBA game and amateur football play later this evening.
UPDATE Ark St +3
