Category: NFL
NFL Week 15
Washington +2 (-110)
Again, this is part of a hedge I have been doing against their season under (6.5) which I took. That bet is fucked if they win one more time between now and the end of the year. I also think this line is wrong; the Bills aren’t favorites over many teams right now and the Washington Football Team is actually playing OK and motivated to win at home to keep pace in the NFC East. This line is now at +3 (-140)!
NYG +5.5 and NYG ML +195
I think the Giants do make it a close game vs the undefeated Panthers today, as they always play up or down to the competition. James Stewart is also out for the Panthers. I love the +5.5, but I am also taking the ML because I think this game vs NYG is the only game left on the Panthers’ regular season schedule that Carolina potentially loses, is this one.
SF +6
AJ McCarron on the road, there has to be value there. Yes, he’s playing Blaine Gabbert but he’s actually been OK and the Niners have played well at home and have covered 3 straight there.
Seattle -14.5
Johhnny Manziel and his drinking binge tour go into Seattle missing Brian Hartline, their 2nd best WR, as well as Mike Pettine actually admitting to the press he doesn’t think Russell Wilson is a top 10 QB. This team will get destroyed today.
It also looks like Vegas is getting better when to give a big line:
From 2012-2014, NFL underdogs of 14 or more points went 11-4-1 ATS (73%). However, this season dogs of 14 or more are 0-3 ATS.
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) December 20, 2015
TEASER:
NE -14
SEA -14.5
KC -6
Saturday Degeneracy 12.19
NHL:
Leafs ML +145
UFC:
Donald Cerrone +190
Cerrone lost to the champ Rafael Dos Anjos before…..but that was in the pre-IV/USADA era and Dos Anjos will have to prove he can win without the help of PEDs. Cerrone is also a great kickboxer who is always one kick away from victory.
NFL:
Darren McFadden Over Yards 62.5 (-110) and Anytime TD scorer (EVEN). This is one of the many hedges I will do as I am in the fantasy playoffs in my “big league” this week.
Week 14 NFL
Washington +3.5
Seattle -11
Cincinnati -3 (+135)
Here is a breakdown of the point spreads and trends for Sunday’s NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/nzEr6Vpq9h
— Covers (@Covers) December 13, 2015
TEASER:
DEN -7
GB -7
CAR -9
Monday Night Hedge
We have the Washington Professional Football Team 6.5 season under, and they are now at 5 wins…so we are taking the Washington -3.5 (+120). So this now means I have to bet them every game, which I absolutely hate myself for. What do I do this to myself, having to be forced to bet on Kirk Cousins on a Monday Night vs Matt Cassell? The good news is that this line has gone down from 4.5 to 3.5….and a hilarious side note, thanks to the Giants gag job yesterday, if Dallas wins….”so you are saying there is a chance” is in play (along with the Pats’ gag job vs the Eagles yeterday).
Check out where the action is for tonight's Monday Night Football clash from our friends @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/YiGQe1rh5W
— Covers (@Covers) December 8, 2015
Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins Quarterback Yells 'You Like That,' to Reporters After Win , https://t.co/gq5ywFiAUi
— Luca1983 (@HenryRostock) December 7, 2015
Week 13 NFL
New Orleans +7
I think this is a close game today; the Saints have been struggling but their offense plays way better at home, averaging a full 14 more points at home than on the road this season. Carolina has a great defense with the best corner of 2015 Josh Norman, the best LB core in all of football, and a decent (yet depth lacking) defensive line. A McCown threw 31-35 for over 300+ yards vs Carolina in Week 2, so I expect them to be able to move the ball and keep it close in the Superdome. Carolina wins by 3 however, IMO, so I don’t recommend the ML at +260…but if you *are* gonna take two MLs down the stretch vs the Panthers, this one as well as when they are at the Giants in Week 15 would be the ones.
BUF v HOU Under 41.5
I have no idea how points get scored today except for a McCoy run or a Hopkins long TD pass. Both of these defenses are pretty good and it’s cold in Buffalo. This is also a de-facto playoff game as the winner has an more of an inside track to one of the wild card spots.
Miami vs Baltimore Over 42.5
I’ve taken the Miami over the last 4 weeks and it has hit each time. Both of these “back fours” are pretty awful, and the offenses turn the ball over a lot creating defense score opportunities as well.
NY Giants +2 (-105)
Betting on Eli is so dangerous; it’s like eating Chipotle: sure it might be good…but you could also get e.Coli. Eli usually does the “good game/bad game” thing, and he had a shitty game at 1st place Washington last week (can’t believe I just typed that), but with Revis out, I expect a huge day from OBJ and a win over a pretty average-at-best Jets squad.
TEASER:
NE -9
DEN -4
NYG +2
Odds to make NFL playoffs
Chiefs -400
Colts -280
Steelers -140
Texans +135
Jets +180
Bills +260
Raiders +800
Jags +1400
Dolphins +1600— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 6, 2015
Monday Night Football Math
Ravens +4 (-110)
Yes, the Ravens are down to their 3WR, their backup QB (Matt Schaub), and backup RB (Buck Allen). Their defense is injured. But they face the Browns, starting a McCown tonight because Johnny Manziel can’t layoff the sauce and are somehow giving 4 points despite this being a pick’em before Joe Flacco was declared out for the year. As bad as the Ravens have been, they’ve actually played 90% of their games with a score margin of less than 5 pts.
75% of the bets are on the Browns….that is insane. The Browns aren’t 2 points better than anybody right now (maybe Tennessee – they suck too), never mind 4. Someone will win this shit fest 13-10.
Looks like the underdogs are catching up to the favorites later in the year. The only team holding serve is Carolina.
NFL teams getting ≤35% of the bets this season have gone 42-29 ATS this season. (59.2%)
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) November 30, 2015
Congrats to the Edmonton Eskimos for winning the Coupe Grey! I batted 80% on CFL this year (shoutout to buffaloholdem for some of these leans) and can’t wait for more rouges next year!
About to hand this bad boy out! #CFL #GreyCup pic.twitter.com/PRJdYTST2P
— CFL (@CFL) November 30, 2015
NFL Week 12
MIA vs NYJ Over 43.5
MIN +1.5
TEASER:
MIN +1.5
CIN -10
ARI -10
AND
TEASER: HOU -3 and Over 50
Totals and betting trends on Sunday's NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/9mK8CdMdpt
— Covers (@Covers) November 29, 2015
NFL Week 11
TB +7 (-120)
StL +3 (-110)
MIA v DAL Over 46
KC v SD Over 45
TEASER:
CAR -7
NE -7.5
ARI -5
Breakdown of the percentage of all point spread wagers (by total # of tickets) on Sunday's NFL games @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/UeBrgqcU94
— Covers (@Covers) November 22, 2015
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -6
TNF
I am going to pick the Jags and their piss colored unis tonight at -3 (EVEN). THey have played well lately and Yeldon is cleared to play. A win by any of these teams tonight gets them back in the AFC South “race”. We could see another 7-9 division winner this year! Always makes playoff gambling more fun!
