Category: NFL
Week 3 NFL
7 home dogs this week!
Buffalo ML +150
I have folks in my stream loving the +3…..but Denver is a bit over rated in my view after getting two weeks of home cooking. Buffalo is quietly has started as one of the best defenses in the NFL. Trevor Siemian due to go back down to earth here and I think its more of a coin flip game than people realize. Also West Coast team playing a 1pm start.
Chicago +8 (-120)
Our rule: if Big Ben and the Steelers are more than 7 point favs in any game, its +EV to take the other team. Chicago coming off an ass kicking, both injury and score wise, in Week 2 vs Tampa….. but they are 1-0 ATS at home so far this year and I can see the Steelers fucking up on special teams or get a bout of the “3 and outs” for a quarter or two and keeping the inferior Bears hanging around.
Texans vs Patriots Over 44.5
I know the Texans’ offense stinks, but they will find plays versus Belichick’s soft zones which are designed to keep Watson in the pocket and prevent the big play. Patriots maybe banged up but they will always find a way to score 30+ at home, like they did in the playoff game last year. Also count on a Houston special teams fuckup in Foxboro, they do it every year.
Atlanta vs Detroit Under 51
Did you know the under has hit in 70% of the games so far this year? And that *3* teams have *0* fucking touchdowns? I expect this game to be a close affair between two teams who may see each other in the playoffs. Atlanta’s offense is different on the road than they are at home.
TEASER (+150):
Packers -8.5
Panthers -6
Indianapolis +1
DFS:
Bellator MMA Bonus:
Larkin vs Daley Under 2.5 Rounds -115
These two motherfuckers hate each other. This fight wont be about just getting a “w”.
Hilton Contest Picks Week 3
Bears +7
Bills +3
Chargers +3
Bengals +8.5
Washington +3
Survivor: Green Bay
Season: 8-2-0, 2-0
Week 2 NFL
Miami @ LA Chargers Over 46
NE @ New Orleans Over 56
Philadelphia +6 -125
Pittsburgh -9 (EVEN)
Parlay +101
Oakland Raiders-1000 ML
Seattle Seahawks-1000 ML
Carolina Panthers-280 ML
Pittsburgh Steelers-450 ML
TEASER +130:
New England -7
Carolina -7
Pittsburgh -9
Hilton Contest Picks Week 2
Texans +6.5
Jaguars +2.5
Colts +7
Steelers -5.5
49ers +14
Survivor: Raiders
Season: 4-1-0, 1-0
NFL Week 1
Cleveland +10
Betting more against Big Ben’s torrid numbers on the road as supposed to how good of a chance Cleveland has to keep it close.
Baltimore +3
Both of these teams, Ravens and Bengals, stink
Philadelphia -1
The Washington Football team stinks and Philly should be pretty good this year
SD/Denver Over 43
NYG vs DAL Over 49
TEASER +120:
Carolina -6
Houston -6
SD/Denver Over 43
DFS:
Hilton Contest Picks Week 1
Bears +6.5
Browns +8.5
Jaguars +5
Vikings -3
Washington -1
Survivor Pick: Bills
YTD 0-0
-Lou
2017 NFL Over Unders – Lou
My 5 vs. Pat. Most of these were discussed on this week’s podcast w/ Sean
5) Chicago Over 5.5
4) Chargers Over 7.5
3) Rams Over 5.5
2) Raiders Under 10
1) Bungles Under 8.5
CFL Week 11 and 2017 NFL Preview Podcast!
First of all, it’s that time of year for Lou and I to give our preseason NFL thoughts! We don’t give a Super Bowl pick this year because who the fuck knows, right? (Well, the Pats should win it all…….). We also give the Week 1 leans we have this week (and I’ll post my picks later in the week).
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-afc-2017
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-cover-nfc-2017-preview-and-week-1-leans
And here are my CFL and CFL DFS leans for the week:
MTL/BC Under 50 (-110)
TEASER:
EDM +6.5 and OTT/HAM Over 53.5
Mayweather vs McGregor
The shitshow is finally here. I wish I could bet the over on when the fight actually starts……these things usually take forever to actually start it probably goes past 11:30pm on the East Coast.
As for the fight itself……as much as these two say they will try and KO each other like savages….I think both will actually cancel each other out for a bit while they figure out each other’s patterns. Floyd is older but wiser, and I think he’ll dance and hold and stall for the first 4 rounds at least, and try to see how Conor handles “deep water”. I think this fight will go the same way Hatton vs Floyd did, minus the possibility of a KO because Conor is a better athlete than Hatton and Floyd doesn’t have the power that he did in 2006 at age 40. And considering Floyd Round Overs have made money for us (and hopefully for you!), I am gonna stay with that plan.
So what I like for tonight:
Mayweather vs McGregor Over Rounds 9.5 +140
And as for the pick:
Mayweather -450
I just don’t think Floyd loses a decision in Vegas, even if Conor knocks him down. I can also see Conor quitting on the stool or maybe getting caught in the 11th or 12th round…and since he hasn’t even been in a boxing match before, it’s why I am apprehensive to take the distance prop at +215. But Floyd is so technical and does such a great job of staying out of the way of punches (there will be some great swing and miss gifs for this fight), I just don’t see these guys having this all out slug fest. Maybe a “hug fest” perhaps, as both Conor and Floyd will want to stay out of “hook” range and use the clinch to catch breath and slow things down.
As for 3 hedge props:
Conor McGregor wins in first 2 rounds +700
Conor McGregor wins in 3-4 rounds +700
Floyd Mayweather wins in 11-12 rounds +1200
CFL Week 8
BC Lions -2 (-105)
A rare back-to-back game in football! They beat Saskatchewan 30-15 last week and I think they also take care of business this time around, as in one thing watch the Roughriders, who I took last week, is that they are a very talented yet young team that is mistake prone. The juice is favorable so we’ll go with the Lions here.
TEASER:
OTT +1.5 and WPG/HAM Over 60 (-125)
DFS:
