Category: NCAA Football
NCAA Wwek 7?
3-4 -1.22 on the season…
Texas +12.5
Purdue +13
Kansas State +17
Utah State +5.5
All -110
NCAA Picks Week Whatever
I’m 1-4 for the season after missing week 1, and the last two or three from being away. My guess is this is week 6 or 7 but some teams have only played three games so I have no idea. Again these are more for tracking than anything else as I won’t actually be watching any college games.
Wake Forest +8 -110
SMU +3.5 -105
Baseball summaries later this week.
These Teams Stink
As do my college football picks. 0-3 to start the “season.” No opponents on these as it doesn’t matter and I only have a vague idea as to who the opponents are anyway.
Connecticut +6 +105
South Alabama +8.5 -110
NFL
Dallas @ Kansas City -3 -110
On holiday the next two weeks. No September baseball as you all have obviously noticed. Three sports is too many to keep up with.
Football Stuff
Going over currently open bets, as well as submitting my picks for Over/Under Season Totals. Speaking of which, the Indiana play took a hit last night with a home loss to Navy. Indiana looks to be able to score points with relative ease but they had genuine problems on the defensive side. Hopefully this was more of a case of facing a weird offense (triple option). We shall see. Aside from that, bets I am the house for…
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 (-229) 150 Units
Oakland Raiders League Worst Record (+225) 30 Units
And bets on my end…
Cincy to win AFC (+1200) 15 Units
I really didn’t think Andy Dalton was going to be good in the pros, but he has progressed to the point for me that I actually forget it’s Andy Dalton who is out there.
5 Point Pick – Browns Over 6
Hear me out. Pitt and Balt seem to be both getting worse these days. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of 3 home games early on where they play Cincy, Buffalo on a very short week, and then have a week and a half before Detroit comes in. Trent hitting his prime.
4 Point Pick – Panthers Under 7
You know how Harbaugh is all about trying to prevent Kapernick from getting hurt? Do you know who you don’t hear being a part of that conversation? Ron Rivera, who is coming across as the equivalent of an absentee father with Newton. If Newton gets injured at any point early, a plausible scenario given the distressing fact that he was Carolina’s leading rusher last year, this Under is a lock. Steve Smith aint getting any younger, their running backs aint getting any healthier.
Side Note, I love how confident I sound when making picks.
3 Point Pick – Packers Under 10.5
In Simmons’ season preview he rightly points out how difficult the Packer away schedule is.
2 Point Pick – Falcons Over 10
I see this as Atlanta signing up for making a run this year. There is no way Gonzalez plays a down in the league after this year. Steve Jax is never going to be as productive moving forward as he will be this year. Good chance the same can be said for Roddy. I do not think they will feel the ripple effect of trading away a chunk of their future for Julio at this point. Once more into the fray while you all still have legs.
1 Point Pick – Patriots Under 11
They have an easy schedule, they play in the easiest division of the easier conference. All they do is win double digit games of every year. But my God did they look awful in the preseason. I put next to no faith, stock, belief in preseason football, except when I want to.
NCAA Plays Week Whatever This Is
Pleas keep in mind these are miniscule bets and I’m not currently planning on watching any college football whatsoever. I wanted Illinois on this list of plays today, but Bookmaker blows as you’re all aware.
Duke @ Memphis +4.5
Bowling Green @ Kent or Kent State +7
Minnesota @ New Mexico State +16
Why is Minnesota playing at New Mexico State? I honestly have no idea.
Pro-Am Football
The easiest money you will win this year on anything is going to be betting the Over on Indiana college football total wins. I asked Lou how much I was possibly allowed to bet on one thing and he said, “don’t you owe me money?” Well played. Indiana is going to smush their Over, please remember you heard this here first on Aug 26th, year of Our Lord 2013. The Vegas number is 5.5, the real number should be 6.25, the actual number will be at least 7. This is a thing that will happen.
The Bet
Indiana Over 5.5
UPDATE
There will definitely be more of these to follow but IU is my big play. The juice on the bet is absurd (-155). Vegas realizes they are going to win at least 6. I would honestly rather have 6 at even money. Lame, se la vi.
UPDATE II
The Indiana action wound up being the only thing I genuinely liked. I would love to bet the Oklahoma under, not really as an indication of the team’s potential weaknesses as a recognition of how difficult their schedule is, but @ 8.5 Vegas is as always a step ahead. As with baseball this year, I will make up for this lack of early action with oodles of regular season plays, starting in earnest Week 2.
NCAA Football Totals
I’m debating betting college football this season and am currently dabbling in building some college football models and backtesting a couple of data sets against my spiffy excel sheet with lots of tabs. Before any of you ask, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, but I’m guessing line moves and something similar to what I have for baseball will work for college football. That said, my knowledge is approximately zero on any of these teams, so this would be strictly a math and line movement model and thus weaker than what I have for baseball. I say approximately zero knowledge because I did read a bunch of team previews last week and felt inspired enough to make the season bets below. I won a medium sized bet on Stanford a couple of years ago, but they are the only team I’ve watched (other than their opponents) in maybe three years. I’ll be happy if these turn a small profit.
Top Teams, Small Dollars
Alabama Over 11 -110
Oregon Over 10.5 -150
Worse Teams, Medium Dollars
Auburn Under 7 -150
Cincinnati Over 8.5 -135
Kansas Under 4 -130
Tackle Football – “Amateur”
Only game I like at this point is…
Western Kentucky (+38) @ Alabama
Justification on this – W Kentucky favors a ball control style of play. It’s going to be difficult just in terms of sheer time for Alabama to cover if W Kentucky puts together a couple of decent drives.
We’ll see if I like anything more as the afternoon wears on…
BCS Championship
Alabama is a slight favorite against LSU in the Championship game. There is a chance that the computer simulations are picking ‘Bama. Pretty sure, though, this is as strong an indicator you can find as to how married Vegas often is to betting tendencies. (Always fun to write “married” and “Vegas” in the same sentence) I wrote about this a few years ago here. While absolutely either team is capable of winning, having Alabama the favorite is to me stunning.
