Author: sean
World Series of Prop Bets
Can you imagine if there was a World Series of Prop Bets? What would the events be? Will there be a podium where the national anthems are played for degenerate winners? I’m competing for the USA in the “Parlay Relay”. The possibilities could be endless.
As baseball’s World Series comes up, here are some prop bets I like:
Koji Uehara to win the World Series MVP (12-to-1)
Why not?
How many times will Shane Victorino get hit by a pitch? (Over/Under 1 @ Even)
We chop alot here, worth the gamble.
Matt Holliday more hits, runs, RBI than Dustin Pedroia (-115)
Pedroia is hurt with a bum thumb, struggling at the plate and on the field due to that injury, and in his career Holliday is 9-for-26 (.346) in 28 AB at Fenway with 3 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBIs and 2 BBs at .577 slugging.
Will any player or manager get ejected in the World Series? (No @ -200)
That’s free money, IMO #backupthetruck
Our “Kudos of the Day” goes to Jim Leyland, who steps down as Tigers Manager after a long career in baseball. I’ll always respect the man for his talent on only on the diamond, but also off of it…..like his keen sense of smoking butts in the dugout without the umpires noticing (OK, maybe not) and of course, his all-time hall of fame talent of saying thew word, “fuck”:
Quick Hits
“Looooooooooots of action!” as Karna would say, trying to recover from a disastrous Thursday.
NCAA:
Texas A&M vs Auburn Over 72 (Manziel has been killing these overs. A&M’s defense isn’t very good, either).
UFC:
Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga +150 (Brazilian, fights out of Ludwig, MA. Good veteran, has won last 3 fights by TKO. Fighting Shawn Jordan, who used to play DT at LSU..athletic but raw talent who has won last 4 fights).
Thursday Night Crapball
The NFL wants to do another one of these Thursday games, and maybe even a West Coast 10pm game?
I guess the boys in New York enjoy setting money on fire (because if you’d take away one Sunday game – I guarantee you over time, a Sunday game will get more of a ratings share than BOTH of the Thursday Night games combined).
Television is still so bad however that TNF has beaten prime time network ratings 14-out-of-15 weeks (the only show to beat it was “Big Bang Theory”, which I still believe is a propaganda OP to get me to watch LESS television).
While I am not always a fan of the Sports Hub’s 98.5’s Michael Felger, he did keep it real when he said: (during the time of the lockouts of NFL/NHL): “its amazing how these guys seem to make boatloads of money….despite trying their best to get in their own way!”.
It’s an incredible level for sure to have a league, right after PBS’ documentary, “League of Denial” (about it the NFL’s corporate denial of concussions causing brain disease CTE), respond with a PR campaign along with throwing money at the problem to be “serious about player safety”…..only to do something that compromises that very goal (just to make “more money”).
This also goes for 18 game seasons: how the fuck am I going to bet on this shit when half the players on the teams’ playing are on the injured list?
Of course, the rumor could of been a “PR flyer” by the NFL (an organization releases a rumor to see if it would get positive/negative reaction, and then proceed to make a move based off of said reaction). They’ve denied it:
Wondering where the idea of Thursday night doubleheaders came from? So are we. We have not considered this
— Brian McCarthy (@NFLprguy) October 16, 2013
As for the game tonight, I think it is actually toss up. Seattle could blow them out, Arizona could make it a slugfest. Arizona is currently +7 on Bovada (-140). This will be the first of three straight games at home for the Cardinals, who will attempt to try to win their first divisional game of the 2013 NFL Season. Seattle comes into town with the league’s second ranked defense and 10th ranked offense (which Lou has noted, is banged up). Arizona’s defense is also good, and they have won 7-out-9 at home versus Seattle (in which the under has hit in the last four games, due to the classic division-style, “slobberknocker” games). These style of games are so fucking awful to watch on television. The NE Patriots v NY Jets Week 2 game was maybe one of the worst sporting events I have ever attended (although it won’t beat a shitty NBA game)…..and I root for one of the teams.
I then, in the spirit of craptastic football, like the under 41 (-110) tonight between these two uninspiring football teams on this inspiring day of the week (although both teams do make, and give up, spectacular plays).
I’m also doing a $5-for-$30 parlay special, inspired by Lou with both Edmonton +130 and Arizona +200. Let’s add the over in the Edmonton/NY Islanders game at 6 (EVEN) as well, since I am so far up 2 units on the trend of higher goal scoring (maybe due to less goalie pads as I have noted in a previous post).
Tweet of the Week:
Just heard breaking news: Washington Redskins dropping Washington from their name because it is embarrassing.
— Scott McNealy (@scottmcnealy) October 15, 2013
Detroit Over City
Like the Red Sox/Detroit over at 7 (-115…now 7.5 at -110) tonight.
It can’t be a 1-0 game every game, right? Yes……Detroit’s offense is struggling…but it’s bullpen is even worse. And the switch-hitting Red Sox OF Nava is 5-for-12 in his career against Detroit’s Game 4 starter Doug Fister. Fister also doesn’t strike people out like Detroit’s staff has…..Red Sox batters have struck out in 50% of the ABs in this series. And they are still up 2-1, which is astonishing considering the epic performance by the Detroit starters, who made the Red Sox set a record for lowest batting average in the first 3 games of a 7 game series at 0.133 (they beat the Cardinals vs the Dodgers this year…..what great television for MLB!!!!).
Now for our Bet of the Week:
Man Wins £125,000 On Bet His Infant Grandson Would Play For Wales
Wilson’s grandfather, Peter Edwards, placed a £50 bet with a local bookmaker when his grandson was 18 months old. At 2,500/1 odds, Edwards bet that his grandson would one day play soccer for Wales. He’s now £125,000 richer, and plans to retire on his winnings.
Edwards described the experience of watching Wilson’s debut to BBC News, and he sounds like a pretty awesome grandpa:
“I was shattered because I had to wait for 85, 86 minutes before he came on and I was panicking because they’d already substituted twice, so I thought he wasn’t going to make it,” he said.
“But when he came on I had another glass of wine. (I was) a proud granddad first for sure.
“I told my wife at half-time that my pulse was 106 – I didn’t know whether that was good or bad.”
And it was….a miracle cover!
If I only had a time machine….
The line of the week for Week 6 is the Denver Broncos -27 line versus Jacksonville (once -28). It’s the biggest line on record, and quite possibly one of the funniest things I have ever seen on a Monday morning. It is the highest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Will the Jags cover, even if Henne plays? Since 2003, dogs of 20+ have gone 4-0 ATS (and those 4 four times the favorites have been the NE Patriots). The Patriots have been a nightmare for sports books in the modern era; sportsbooks couldn’t stop losing because everyone was on them early in 2007 and 2011 when they were destroying everybody (and covering). Then once they didn’t cover, all the money kept coming in against them (and the Pats either won close, or lost those games). As one sports bookie put it: “There was nothing we could do.”
Historically, according to The Gold Sheet (sports-betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s), the line of minus 28 ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. The Falcons, of course, covered. In 1976, expansion Tampa (quarterbacked by South Carolina Gamecock’s coach Steve Spurrier) were 26-point dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers…..and promptly lost 42-0
I’m almost tempted to take the Jags because it *is* so many points; you’d also have to think it’s a motivating factor in that locker room to cover the spread (because I am sure even they know they won’t win). Either way, I do like the Over at 53 (-110). Denver’s defense is not that good; I do think the Jags *could* score 17-20 on them (especially when garbage time hits). Denver will probably break the season’s total points scored and average per game record, and put up at least another 35-41 here.
Seattle -14 (EVEN) v TEN
Ryan “My mom has met Pat Darts” Fitzpatrick on the road against the best home team, and defense, in football? Yes plz.
Teaser: CIN (-7 vs Buffalo) + SF (-11 vs ARI) + SEA (-14 vs TEN) at +165
Probably also take Cincy on the road at the -7 as well. I mean, the defense hasn’t allowed a 300 yard passer in 18 straight games…which in this era, is pretty fucking good. I am not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but I am a huge fan of betting against practice squad QBs (like Thaddus Lewis).
Washington R.G. Threes (+6, -120) vs Dallas
I get to do one of my favorite past times: betting against the Cowboys. These 2 teams always play close games.
CFL Bonus pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9.5, EVEN) vs Edmonton
Saskatchewan comes home from a two game road trip at 12-3. They are considered the best defense in the CFL. Edmonton’s team nickname is the “Eskimos”. And we are gambling!
Wonderful time of year
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
In NFL:
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Rebound
Had a great week 2, shitty week 3 (only saved by teasing Denver to -10 and the Over to 44 on MNF……the Raiders would “Miracle Push” the actual line with 1:50 in the 4th with a McFadden TD).
The thing about gambling problems is…..it’s not a problem if you win. And you can’t win if you don’t play!
SF -4 and Under 43 (The Rams are 5-1-1 vs the NFC West since the start of last season but 2-7-1 in their last 10 games vs the 49ers. Thursday night games have been sluggish, averaging 40 pts per game total by an avg margin of 11.5 points).
Mike Pierira tweeting from his basement agrees with us:
No clear favorite based on your responses. I think the Niners go to the run game for four quarters and win in a low scoring game.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) September 27, 2013
IND – 9 @ JAX (Jacksonville sucks) also going to tease with Denver (-11 vs Philly)
CLE +4.5 v CIN (This game is always historically close, I’m hedging with my Cincy season AFC Central Champs bet, and I think we could have some Hoyer Magic in the works!)
And now I leave you with this important public service announcement tweet from Michael Irvin:
All you men over 40. GO LET THAT DR STICK HIS FINGER UP UR BUTT……PROSTATE CANCER KILLS. WAS DIFFICULT BUT I HAD TO. So do you! Good Luck
— Michael Irvin (@michaelirvin88) September 25, 2013
Steak n’ Cheese
Andy Reid is back in Philly tonight, after coaching there for 13+ seasons, as the HC of the KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are of to their first 2-0 start since 2010, and are currently the best red zone team in the league (5-for-5, all TDs) and the only one left without a turnover. Their defense isn’t half bad either (as long as the super duper safety Eric Berry stays healthy).
We also have the Eagles Over trend which I’ve hit the last two weeks. Between them running 85-90 plays a game, and their atrocious defense (they and the Chargers last week put on a “How NOT to tackle” clinic), this lines up to be another night to take the over straight up, yes?
I say no. I will say, despite me betting against the Chargers this year, Mike McCoy runs a great gameplan (once he gets his guys in there, this team will do better….but in a year or two). The Chargers possessed the ball last week for more than 3/5ths of the game; this, IMO, is how you have to beat the Eagles’ attack….possess the ball and give your defense some rest (the Chargers are so bad on defense it didn’t matter anyways as our over hit, but KC defense is better than SD). You know a motivated Reid knows the blueprint (and the horses to do so with RB Jamal Charles). Also, playing a short week this week….and from experience……these games tend to be AWFUL football. The players are tired, the coaches don’t have enough time to prepare, all while the NFL laughs all the way to the bank. Too bad we are such degenerate gamblers in this country, we can’t help but still not watch (and still bet the over in some capacity).
That’s why I like the tease here: KC to +9.5 and and Over to 44 (-110). These teams play close games, and someone winning 24-20 is a definite possibility (bets saved are bets earned). I just hope Vick doesn’t get hurt (but he probably will).
New York Giants +1 (at Carolina, -105)
Giants need a win after going 0-2, and despite their crappy defensive play and Eli turning it over like a omelet, they’ve averaged scoring 27.5 pts/game. Carolina has lost two gut wrenching games, their offense can’t score TDs, and they make dumb penalties at the worst times……thanks to their shitty coach Ron Rivera (who gets fired first, him or Schiano?). Coughlin will get these guys motivated to win. We’ll take the points (and its now to a pick’em).
Vikings -7 (+105)
Vikings are also desperate at 0-2 in their home opener, losing two close games in their early weeks. The Browns just traded away their best player (RB Trent Richardson) to the Colts for a 1st round pick next year (GREAT trade for Browns, IMO…..and they might also go 0-16 and get the 1st round pick! The bang-bang!*), Ohio native and MSU alum Brian Hoyer (former backup for the Pats) is starting at QB, and the Browns signed 40 year old Willis McGahee (I picked him up in all of my leagues, I admit it). We’re getting juice, although the QB we are betting on isn’t that much better……but Ponder’s Home/Road splits are night and day. And the Vikings have AP. We’ll give the points and #andwearegambling
*Cleveland plays the Jaguars on December 1st, and it could be the first time we had an negative undefeated (a positive way to say, “no wins”) toilet bowl this deep into a season since the 0-9 Patriots played the 0-8 Colts in 1990. I’m giddy at the thought of this being a pick’em.
Lions/Washington R.G. Threes Over (whatever it is)
It’s off the board because Bush is (probably) not going to play, but Joique Bell has been a “steady” RB sleeper in fantasy as he’d played in nearly half the snaps in the games as the backup (also picks up the blitz better. That equals playing time). These teams can both move the ball, make big plays as well as give up big plays. Add a motivated Robert Griffin III….. probably the game of the day, here.
I have have the urge to be a huge degen and take the Seahawks -19 vs Jacksonville at home…….but I’ll probably still tease it with something like Denver because I just can’t stop betting. We’ll see how the day goes.
Extra Credit – UFC:
Blaine Gabbert Sucks
Fuckin’ Blaine Gabbert, man…….I have KC/JAX Over (41.5) and JAX gets a quick safety early….we actually get to 23 at halftime…suddenly its 28 to fuckin 2 and that’s how the game ends. KC might not score 28 points the REST OF THE YEAR.
What I missed though……is an opportunity to bet against Blaine Gabbert. I think he sucks. Balls. Between the happy feet and the over hype coming out of college, I knew this guy should of been a guy “who I have to bet against every time he starts.” He would join Dan Orlovsky, Jeff George, and Tim Couch as the other guys who I would always bet against when they started. These men paid my rent, and instead of continuing the tradition with Blaine Gabbert, I’ve put faith in this guy now multiple times (I also bet the Jags at +375 at home last year vs Chicago. I also love betting against Jay Cutler, but the Jags thought it would be a good idea to wear black jerseys in 90 degree heat in September. #facepalm #moneyonfire).
No more. I can’t wait for this guy to get signed by the Jets or some other suckbag team that I can bet furious amounts of money on.
Ironically, he got hurt/benched and now Henne is starting for the Jags. Henne is actually OK and i think 3rd best backup QB in NFL; he has flaws (late on throws), but has a good arm and a good rhythm with Cecil Shorts III (who had 8 TD and 897 yards last year when Henne became starter and Cecil saved my fantasy leagues when I was short at WR depth). The Jags might actually now win 4 games this year, where with Gabbert, they might of only won 2. I am upset because I was going to pull a Pat Darts and bet the Raiders at home this week, but not bet is off as JAX now has a chance to win.
BTW, don’t ask about Danny Amendola or the inept Pats offense if you see me. Every time I see Welker, it’s like seeing an ex-girlfriend with a less attractive (rich) guy with a gimp.
Here are the picks:
GB -7 (-115) vs Washington
The Redskins looked awful defending the run last week, couldn’t hold on to the ball, and only came back when the Eagles took the gas off the pedal (as they usually do) in the 4th quarter. Opener in Lambeau Field, a still-shaky-n-rusty RG III (who I am benching for Schaub in a fantasy league this week), and a pissed off Green Bay team who lost a game they should of had a better chance to win last week because the refs screwed them over again and will probably cost them a home game in the playoffs. Add the karma with their nickname (I now call them, “The Washington R.G. Threes”)……and we’re gambling!
Eagles/Chargers Over 55 (-105)
Until the Eagles’ main players (McCoy, Jackson) get hurt and Mike Vick gets his spleen broken into 99 pieces, you have to keep taking their overs here as they try to run 85-90 plays/game. Add the fact they are playing the Chargers at home, who blew a 28-7 lead on MNF (and Houston, Over bettors like me thank them for it!), I can see this being a game in the 30s (that the Chargers find a way to lose…again #Norvcurse).
Baltimore -7 (EVEN) vs Browns
Home opener, ring ceremony, Ray-Ray in da house, EVEN spread (should be -110)…….and the hapless Browns (way to rub it in, Baltimore Ownership). Add the fact the Browns have lost 12 in a row in Baltimore (and have gone 9-1-1 ATS in those games), with the Ravens are coming off a long week where Manning threw 7 TDs (and they def replayed this on film over and over), they should have the motivation to crush this team.
All of above in Teaser +160
Seahawks -3 (+105)
I essentially think this is a coin flip, and I think getting juice (it should be SEA -3 EVEN) on a home fav (rare) is a steal.
Add the Seahawks’ great fans (and best home field in all of sports) are going to try and break a Guinness World Record this week in crowd noise….and we’re gambling. On a side note for those with a major gambling problem, the fact you have the two best defenses in football, the under at 44 also looks tasty.
I also wanted to put the Falcons in a teaser (-6) with the Texans (-10), but I am done with putting ATL in teasers….it always loses money….. like me on a Friday night at Tattletales (and at least then, I get to see some boobies).
On a side note, with the Mayweather Fight, Texas A&M vs Bama game, EPL Soccer, MLB, and NFL….this weekend could break a volume betting record in a Vegas “Perfect Storm”:
“In all my years, I’ve never seen a schedule that sets up so perfectly for betting,” said Vaccaro, now working for the sportsbook at the South Point casino. “You can’t put together a schedule like this. It just happens, and when it does, it’s definitely good for business. It’s going to be off the charts.”
Anytime could be the most wonderful time of year to gamble!
Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
