Author: sean
A New Season
As the 2013 NFL season approaches, it’s a clean slate for everybody. You know, like when a coach calls a timeout before an opposing FG….and the kicker misses the FG.
I have various future action this year:
Cincinnati (+215, now to +200) to win AFC North
I’m counting on a Lewis-less Baltimore decline (also, their slot WR and backup tight end combing age would be eligible for Medicare), a depth deprived Steelers team (with no offensive line), and the poor Browns to contribute to one of the weaker divisions of the year. I believe Cincy, on paper: has the NFLs 2nd best defense (behind Seattle), unique weapons on the outside in Gresham and AJ Green (the second best WR in the NFL) and they are deep in the RB department. Their second half schedule is SUPER weak too. They might start the year 2-3 or 1-4 and finish 11-5.
Chargers Under 7.5 (-125)
Fuck Philip Rivers. That is all.
Here’s also some random UFC action tonight (hint: bet fighters FROM Brazil fighting IN BRAZIL vs fighters who AREN’T); I’ll post my NFL picks later in the week
The Heat Is On!
I have had a very profitable NBA season, and I haven’t watched many games. Mostly hunches and assumptions on a) how series dynamics go in the NBA from years of watching it and b) assuming it’s half-rigged……. have helped me win money this postseason. Postseason NBA is so much easier to bet on than regular season NBA!
I liked the Heat at -6 (now -7), the ML at -295 (now -310) and the Heat in a teaser (to -2) and the under at 191.5 (to 195.5)…..until I heard THIS news:
As you can see in the screenshot below, two of tonight’s refs (Ken Mauer and Mike Callahan) have been money for under bettors, while the third (the infamous Joey Crawford) can be qualified as neutral.
Considering *this* news….I now LOVE the Heat tonight. Throw in NBA ratings dynamics, the fact that older teams like the Spurs have trouble in these quick turnaround road games (from years of watching the Celtics, I know…much different when we took the Spurs in Game 1 because they have 5+ days of rest, and are 8-0 in the playoffs when this occurs), and the fact that Joey “The Closer” Crawford is refereeing tonight’s game – book the Heat line, ML, and tease that sucker with the under.
P.S.:
For you baseball bettors looking for value, the Cubs are 69-63 for +15.5 units vs. St Louis since 2005……and 6-3 for +9.6 units as a +195 underdog or greater. As with most rivals; you can throw records out the window.
I joke that Scott Foster will be doing the Heat-Pacers Game 7 tonight…..
…..the same Scott Foster that was a buddy of gambling referee, future potential Executive Game referee Tim Donaghy
….the same Scott Foster who ejected half of the bulls team in Game 2 (which everyone and their mom…..including my mom and I….took the Heat)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8TAxAFOA4c
That guy? He’s working Game 7 tonight. I joked that this would happen to a friend of mine a day earlier and wouldn’t you know it:
Scott Foster will be joined by Mike Callahan and Ken Mauer as officials for Game 7 between the Heat and Pacers.
This is also David Stern’s last hurrah….he’s sending in “Mariano Rivera in the 9th” of refs to close this out (and ensure some ratings share for the NBA, who will lose to the NHL in the ratings wars regardless).
Add to that: 4 players in NBA history average at least 25 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG in potential series-clinching games: Michael Jordan, Larry (The Legend) Bird, Jerry West……and Lebron James.
I’m on a feel-good freeroll….since I hate the Heat so much, if the Heat lose, I do lose cash… but I also win happiness! #winning
Safe to say, we like the Heat -7 and the ML tonight -335. Hell, throw the Heat in a teaser -3 with the over 174.
The SuperPowers: Mayock and Johnson do the 1994 Grey Cup
Amazing stuff here; Gus mus love him a rouge.
Mayock and Johnson 1994 Grey Cup
Things we’re rooting for:
The Heat to lose Game 6 so I can bet my BR on them in Game 7.
Bruins first to score in Game 1 on the EDF vs Pittsburgh (+110)
Thiago Silva +170 vs Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante on UFC on FUEL TV 10
Soccer and Hockey weekend Drunken Recap
I don’t remember much of the games b/c I was hammered, but these two videos summarize the drunken wild weekend in Soccer and Hockey:
This was our buddy Putland when Yeovil Town won the Playoff for the Npower League One Final, despite their opponent Brentford being a 2.12 to 1 favourite:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyXOQxiFeqg&feature=player_embedded#t=123s
John Tortorella also has a career in commentary if he ever gets canned:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R3K-oZ4T10
Betting tip of the week:
Stock market guys often brag about getting 8-10% on some of their investments. Imagine if one came along that had the potential to make 33%? They would be as bullish as *I* am on the Miami Heat to win the title now at 1/3.
Free Money Alert: Code Green
I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.
I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).
Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:
“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.
And I was like……
holy shit……….
FREE MONEY*
The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.
The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.
They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.
Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).
You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?
JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?
Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……
……+2 is a great play.
The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.
Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.
Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).
Why not Houston?
OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.
*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).
** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name
Week 17 Picks
Steelers -6 (-125) I just see Pittsburgh, with a “win-and-get-in” situation for the bye and the division, take care of a struggling Browns team at home today. Plus out of all the lines where this type of situation occurs, this one is the most reasonable to bet on, even with the juice.
Falcons -13 John Fox just got canned, the Falcons lost a very winnable game on Monday night versus the Saints, and homefield is on the line for Atlanta. You know Mike Smith must of gave these guys hell in the meetings this week watching the Saints game film, especially on offense where they had problems running the ball. Methinks they take it out on the Panthers today, and be motivated enough to get a big lead to pull starters in the 4th.
Packers/Bears Over 42 Resting or no resting, these teams will score a lot today, especially with how good Rodgers looks at home vs the Giants this week, and the Bears getting big plays in between 5-6 plays of superior mediocrity on offense led by Jay Cutler. Plus Cutler COULD throw a few TDs to the Packers D, too. And you throw in the Devin Hester, but I doubt that because the Packers were dumb enough to kick to him on Week 4 and paid the price
4 team Teaser @ 3-1 (You can also add the Packers -4 in this one @ 4.5-1 if the Falcons game is already decided as then the Bears will just be resting people):
Steelers PK
Colts -4
Ravens -4
Falcons -8
Week 16 Picks
GB -3 vs NYG
Eli Manning (who NEVER talks) spoke up in the locker room this week, telling his team to shake off that last epic fail of a loss vs Philly and speaking the importance of this game vs Green Bay, who looked awesome on Sunday night and probably would of won if Rodgers started. Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs (and they arn’t coached by Norv Turner), so I’m gonna take the pack here to take care of business at home and grab that final 6th playoff spot.
Teaser: NYG/CHI O 30 + HOU/DEN O 43
Even though a Rex Ryan led defense is always ready to play “foot-ball“, too much talent on the field here to not score. Houston and Denver are starting turnstiles on their defensive lines (minus Mario Williams) vs two teams who can run the ball with anybody with Foster and Tebow.
I mean ,the Jets are just destined to make the AFC Championship game vs the Pats, where they are losing 35-10 i nthe 4th quarter as fans chant, “smell our feet!”, right?
Rams -3
Because I think the football gods will NOT allow a 7-9 team to get into the playoffs (Imagine that line!).
Holiday Tease
Merry Christmas everybody! Been away for a while as I had some login issues, traveled to Vegas, and was crowned a drinking champion along with Jaguars LB Eric Alexander. I’ve also been logging my bets on:
http://www.twitter.com/seanismoney
Follow me there for daily bets, quips, and intelligent thoughts that are 160 characters or less.
I’ve been doing well this year, batting .695 for the year. I was at .775, but I’ve been miracle covered the last few weeks (including The Debacle on a Thursday Night in Tennessee when the Titans scored a TD with NO time left to lose 30-28…….the last drive of that game deserves a column on its own).
Today’s tease: Miami Heat +7 and the Over for the Dallas/Cardinals game 39. I finally have a reason to root for The Douche 3, as nothing trumps my disdain more for Lebron, than the Lakers.
I also took the Ravens @ -3.5 on Monday; I just don’t see them losing this game with so much on the line. I’ll have more thoughts going into this Sunday about the Packers, and the Jets, who considering how there season has gone along with the foot-fetish news with Rex Ryan, are fans of the agony of victory, and the THRILL of defeat.
On a final note, I got some new games for the XBOX 360 today. Just played some capture the flag with Chad Ochocinco on Call of Duty: Black Ops.
And as you all know, I have a great love for sports games, so I am really excited to start a season in this title below later:
NCAA Degen Pick’Em Brackets
It is THAT time of year again!
You know Gus Johnson is ready, even in games where the outcome is already decided! You know it must be March! Just make sure you don’t bet any games Steve Lavin is announcing in, you might get coolered.
The pool is a $10 buy-in, must be paid by the Final Four to be eligible. Please put your name as your bracket name so I can keep track of I need to pay out (besides me :P), as well as to instruct that onto anyone you forward this onto.
http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com
Group #: 151780
PW: degens
I’ll leave you with a wild buzzer beater in a Divison 3 game to get your gambling juice flowing! I’ll probably also post some of my picks for the 1st 2 rounds on Wednesday. GL!
