Author: sean
Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Week 13 Quick Slants
UFC:
Nate Diaz +105
NFL:
Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF
Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland
49ers -7 vs St. Louis
Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:
A $100 parlay on Auburn and Penn State to win outright would have paid $8,056. Sadly, no one on earth bet it.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 1, 2013
Gobble Gobble; Gamble, Gamble
Tomorrow is a day of thanks, where millions across the country will be thanking many countless football players that they’ve never met for helping them win money for XMAS gifts this year.
I also thank the gambling gods to give me 3 reasons to watch these games tomorrow (because some of the talent on the field sure won’t). All of these teams are pretty darn flawed.
GB +7 (-120) at Detroit
Detroit is an undisciplined mess but supremely talented. The Packers also know they need to win this game to get it back to Aaron Rodgers for a chance to win the division/wild card down the stretch, despite having Matt Flynn at QB. It will be a close division game and I am sure someone on Detroit’s defense will at some point be called for an unsportsmanlike penalty call.
Pittsburgh/Ravens Under 41 (-110)
Big game for both teams, with the loser being out for a chance for the craptastic 6th seed in the AFC (which is +250 that team will have 9 or more wins).
I can win a division in fantasy football this week with a 6-7 record, so it’s not like *I* should talk.
Its going to be very windy and cold and raw at night in Baltimore, and these games are traditionally low scoring and close. Add to the fact that Joe Flacco is the most useless overpaid WR in the league, this game should be a yawner (until the 4th).
Parlay: GB +7, PIT/BAL U 41, OAK/DAL O 47 (2 units to win 20)
It’s the holidays, why not!?
Happy Thanksgiving and safe holiday travels everybody!
“The Raiders….on offense!”
Gotta hand it to the rookie Matt McGloin (Penn State) on the road last week coming up with the win. He looked very good, and the fact Penn State runs a pro offense helps. hell, the Raiders even scored touchdowns……on offense (despite missing all of his weapons)! We like him getting a point at home to the Titans (even) this Sunday.
I also like Jacksonville +10 (-115) in Houston. They’ve covered the number the last few weeks, and this bet is more of a moratorium on the fact that Houston, I don’t think, is ten points better than ANYBODY right now.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110) vs NY Jets – I’m not enthused taking the Ravens with juice here, but the Jets on the road have just been SO bad. Having a rookie QB doesn’t help, and Anthony Allen might miss this game as well and that’s huge because Rex Ryan’s blitzing, aggressive scheme relies on a roaming, instinctive, athletic safety. They just signed Ed Reed, but he only has 2 out of the 3 left there. Also teasing this with the under at 39.
Giants/Cowboys Over 45 (-110) – Watching missed tackles is kind of fun. I get to do it every week as a Pats fan. If we could only get the Tecmo Bowl music:
Weekend Picks
NFL:
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
UFC:
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
Rebound
Tough last week but you can only win if you bet more!
NCAA:
Texas A&M v Miss State Over 68
UFC:
Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort vs Dan “Hendo” Henderson – Total Rounds 2.5 Over at -110
NFL:
Teaser: Baltimore +1 and Under 44 (a hedge versus my Cincy win AFC North bet)
Dallas at New Orleans Over 54
Denver (-7) at San Diego, the Over 58, and both in teaser
Chicago (pick) vs Detroit
I now present the worst call of the year (even worse than the penalty kick Chelsea FC’s Ramires got today in the 94′ versus West Brom to salvage a 2-2 tie, thanks to a Eden Hazard PK):
Fight Club
UFC on Fox Sports 1 tonight. I am currently up 9.5 units on the year in MMA, let’s keep this ball rolling.
On top of that, the fights tonight are at Fort Campbell for the US Troops, benefiting the Intrepid Fund, which benefits soldiers with tramatic brain injury. You can check out the site and make a donation here.
Here are my picks:
Michael “Maverick” Chiesa vs Colton Smith to go the distance at +110
Buffalo Wild Wings
There’s one game a year I like to speculate a big upset on, and this year it’s Buffalo +3.5 and the Money Line +165 versus Kansas City.
The Chiefs are undefeated, but also have played mostly a cupcake schedule. Their defense is legit (and healthiest out of all of the AFC contenders) but their offense is really craptastic. They don’t turn the ball over and Alex Smith manages the game very well. They also are experts at having 3-and-outs after their defense gets a turnover. They should, however, give Denver a good run for their money in the AFC West just because their secondary is top 3 in the league.
I, like Darts, was rooting for the Chiefs to win last week so that they would be undefeated going into this game. They play the Broncos next week, so the “overlook a week” alert is in effect. Buffalo plays tough at home and can make big plays (they give them up too, as told by Lou’s bad beat story).
Now if I can only just get Gus Johnson to call the game, I’d bet the future house on it:
San Diego at Washington Over 51
If I was a defensive coordinator, I would play this tape to my team to demonstrate how NOT to tackle. Also going to throw this in a teaser with New Orleans -6
Baltimore -3 (+110)
Road Favorites are 60% ATS since 2000 coming off of a bye. Jason Campbell made us some money last week (via a teaser, thank you South Carolina Gamecock K Ryan Succop). And we’re gambling……
If Percy Harvin is active this week, I might also take Seattle -17 at home versus Tampa. I just don’t see how Tampa scores in that building, especially without Doug Martin.
We leave you with this excellent video from over at Barstool Sports on various cell phone videos taken of people losing their shit at bars around the country when the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series (and I won $215 after clinching our “No manager or player will get thrown out” prop):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZbPs1o2TlQ
Free Bets are Fun
Tonight the NBA starts, and to get people to actually bet on NBA team futures, Bovada is running a promotion for a free (up to) $20 bet: if the Miami Heat 3-peat (and they are favored to do so at 21/10), everyone gets their cash back.
Here are our choices:
|
Brooklyn Nets
|
||
I think the Bulls are always one Derek Rose injury away from disaster. They also have the weakest bench, but I think the strongest coach out of all these teams (including Doc, will get to that in a minute).
Indiana is very young and balanced and talented…..but they really need another superstar scorer/identity to match LeBron and Wade. I like Coach Vogel, he’s ornery and is defensive minded. I just don’t think they have the horses to beat Miami in a 7 game series (they may face them in the ECF again).
The L.A. Clippers got Doc Rivers in the offseason, who as a coach is leaps and bounds over Vinny Del Negro (who has helped build many-a-bankroll). The problem? It probably will take Doc a year to figure out which guys on this current Clipper team are “his” guys as well as who isn’t (he is very intense…and very impatient with young players)…..as well as waiting to sign KG/Pierce in free agency next year. I will say under Doc however, Chris Paul as an MVP candidate at 10-to-1 is not a bad play in any year.
The Spurs are old, and had their run last year. This year for them will be very much like the year the Patriots are having in 2013: lots of injuries to key guys, young players stepping up and getting the job done against teams of similar competition, them getting into the playoffs, and eventually losing to a really good team with younger talent in the 1st or 2nd round.
I forgot the Brooklyn Celtics when I wrote this, but they in my opinion are just too old for a long run. They will probably face the Knicks in the first round, though, and that should be fun.
Oklahoma City is an enigma; they have the worst coach out of this lot and Westbrook isn’t due back until 2014. They just haven’t been the same team since they traded Harden. They do have Durant however, the second best player in the league.
Who did I go with? Houston at 12-to-1. A speculative play, but I really like the way their GM Daryl Morey has built the roster. The lack a true PF, but with Howard in the middle it’s probably better if they played a little smaller to offset the lost offense (plus you can focus on geting Howard the ball in the post). IMO, their bench is the best out of all of these teams. And they maybe one of the teams interested in Rondo once he becomes available at the trading deadline (so will OKC, too).
I am also betting the Miami Heat/Bulls Over tonight (188) and teasing Miami (-5) with the Lakers (+10). Why? Because I hate money, that’s why.
Saturday Streaking
NCAA:
Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Over 70
I’ve hit this 4 weeks in a row. As long as Manizel plays….and we’re gambling. Vandy also averages 33 points a game, and 37 at home.
UFC:
Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson +130
NFL:
KC – 9 and Teaser with Under 39.5 vs CLE
Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns. I had the displeasure of watching this guy in the second half of a Ravens game I bet on……the line was a sweat but with the way Campbell threw the ball (in the dirt): it wasn’t. He’s awful. If this were Weeden, I’d stay away…but we will take the points.
Dallas +3 + Over 48 Teaser @ DET
This should be a wild game full of mistakes. Could turn out to be important in the wild card picture in the NFC
Denver/Washington Over 59
The Over in Denver’s games this year is 6-0-1 so far this year. Plus anytime I get to bet an over where D’Angelo Hall is involved, I jump in it.
New Orleans -11
Might also throw this in a teaser with GB (-10) at Minnesota.
I am also betting against Tampa Bay the rest of the year…….to put it bluntly, they hate their coach. I put a hundo on the Panthers Thursday (who are playing really good ball right now) wit hthis logic in mind. The only thing that stopped Cam Newton on Thursday night was the Bucs’ cannon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Tc6GbsmAnJs
