Author: sean
TNF
NFL:
I’m taking Lou’s Rams, who have back-to-back shutouts, -5 vs Arizona (EVEN) and also throwing in a teaser with the Under 40. Rams have played well at home lately, partly in due to the fact they are motivated by the unfortunate events in Ferguson, MO……as well as the fact they have THE outside of outside shots at actually winning their division (they would need to win tonight, AND a SF win vs SEA this Sunday to stay alive).
NHL:
Minnesota +115
And for your enjoyment, the goal of the year below by Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey:
Jeez…. Soccer is crazy "@NFVines: Aaron Ramsey's goal https://t.co/isLDLyLDhY"
— Rocc Lesnar (@GirlThatsRocco) December 11, 2014
NFL Week 14
NFL:
TB +10 (EVEN)
Started at -115. According to Chad Millman, the sharps love this one and so do I as I love betting against Jim Caldwell coached teams. Reggie Bush returns today, but he’ll get hurt in the 3rd quarter. Tampa is also 3-1 vs the spread in its last 4 games. The Lions will probably win by 3, but if you wanna take a flyer on the TB ML at +375, it’s not a bad play.
NO -10 (+110)
I hate taking the Saints, but they are at home and Carolina’s really banged up……especially Cam Newton, who probably shouldn’t be playing, and only is because the leader of the craptastic NFC South division is *2* games under .500.
IND at CLE Under 50
Way too high. Indy’s defense blows, but so does Cleveland’s offense. For those wondering why Johnny Manizel isn’t starting today, this maybe why: Jonathan Paul Manziel, born December 6, 1992 (which in that case, good decision Coach Pettine!).
MIN -4
Vikings playing well at the end of the year, and the Jets can’t throw the ball. This line probably should be 4.5 to 5.5.
SF – 9 (-105)
Hedge for our under bet. Also going to throw the ML (-450) in a parlay. SF’s last 4 games: at OAK, at SEA, SD, ARI. Seattle is probably the one loss that actually happens to ship our bet.
PARLAY (+700):
SF -450
MIN -4
SEA at PHI Over 47
IND at CLE Under 50
TEASER (+240):
NO -10
SF -9
TB+10
NBA BONUS:
Washington at Celtics Over 205 (-105). 8-0 so far with these. The OVER has hit in 16 of Boston’s last 21 games, and 12 out of 15 at home.
UFC 181
UFC 181 is tonight; their best cards are always usually around July 4th and XMAS time. This one is no exception as we get TWO great title fights tonight. Its one of those rare cards I’d recommend casual or non-MMA fans to check out and watch.
Here are my plays:
Duffee vs Hamilton Over Rounds 1.5 +160
Duffee hasn’t fought since 2012 due to injury, and all of his fights have ended in KO (lose or win). Hamilton has never been KO’d, only submitted. The majority of the money is on the under here, but I expect both fighters to come out conservatively because the loser of this fight probably gets canned from the UFC, and no one wants to leave themselves open early.
Pettis vs Melendez Goes the Distance -14o
Super stoked for the fight; it’s the all-around game of Melendes vs the athletic kickboxing of Pettis. Melendez has never been KO’d or submitted, and I think both fighters cancel each other out here and we get a 5 round war as both men are good on the feet with defense and Octagon awareness.
Lawler +170 vs Hendricks
This started at +150. I have no idea why its gone up; Hendricks is coming off a biceps tear he suffered in the 1st match between these two (great fight) and had to furiously cut 22 lbs of weight in 3 mths (and you have to be at exact weight for title fights). Hendricks barely made weight in their first fight and it effected him in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Lawler’s sprawling has gotten better, hasbeaten his last 2 top-10 opponents, and he is better on his feet than Hendricks (a 2-time NCAA champ at OK State). I expect a Robbie Lawler win tonight, and then we can have an awesome rubber match in March as really, this fight based off of the last one since it was so close, is more like Rounds 6-10 rather than a new fight.
NHL BONUS:
Montreal +105 at Dallas
I am also sadly leaning on Arizona +120 at home to my banged up Bruins, who have lost their last 3 games on a West Coast Swing, and have been outscored 12-6 in this stretch. 87% of the money is on Bruins as well:
Most Lopsided #NHL Games Tonight
87% on #Bruins
85% on #Lightning
73% on #RedWings
70% on #Panthershttp://t.co/zq3ewdfc7m— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 6, 2014
Today is also MIAA Super Saturday for Massachusetts HS football (no action) but to help you feel old, here’ Vince Wilfork’s kid blowing someone up on special teams:
Kinda cool. Vince wilforks kid #31 blocking for Andre tippet's kid #20 #Xaverian https://t.co/uRJDBXIAUc
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 6, 2014
TNF
First, thanks to the Celtics and Pistons for going into OT last night at 88 a piece and then scoring 38 points in a wild 5 minute OT to secure the Over. 8-0 now! #miraclecover
Here are my plays tonight:
NFL:
Chicago/Dallas Over 51
Two of the worse defenses in the league. They both played last Thursday so no one really is in the mood to tackle, if they actually could tackle. Weather is a crisp 34 degrees, no wind (rare for Chicago) The only fly in the ointment here is if both teams play flat because they just played last Thursday (but remember: the NFL REALLY cares about player safety). Speaking of safeties, I’m also take a prop: first score is FG or Safety at +145.
NHL:
Going with Lou’s suggestions: Colorado +135 at Calgary (also works as a hedge as we have their season points under) and in a parlay at 3-to-1 with -150 Nashville, facing Martin Broudeur who comes out of psuedo-retirement as a member of the St.Louis Blues. He joins a long list of great HOF players who symbolize themselves with one team and end their careers (usually in a blaze of crap for one year) with another team where those jerseys get sold for $5 at the discount section at a Dick’ Sporting Goods store. Noteables:
Jerry Rice (Seahawks)
Ray Bourque (Colorado)
Emmitt Smith (Cardinals)
Michael Jordan (Wizards)
Brett Favre (NY Jets)
Karl Malone (Lakers)
Joe Montana (KC Chiefs)
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
MNF
NFL:
Jets vs Dolphins Under 42
My god what a boring game. 62% of O/U bets on the Over
NHL:
Canadiens/Avalanche OVER 5.5 (+115)
NFL Week 13
TB +4 (+125) and ML +215 vs CIN
I agree with Lou here. Tampa has been the “crappy team that I bet on because they cover” in the last month for me (Lou has his Rams); their defense is not bad and Lovie Smith is turning the roster over nicely to a Cover 2 scheme (which is why Barron was traded) after an initial bad transition period. Tampa might be good next year if they figure out the QB situation. Cincinnati is one of the more erratic teams in the league, they should win this game by 2 TDs, but they’ll keep Tampa around and win by a FG most of the time here.
Baltimore -6 (-110) vs SD
San Diego’s 4rd cross country trip this year (they lost 31-0 in Miami few weeks ago); Baltimore has always played better at home and has been a yearly play for me when they play at M&T Bank Stadium.
Oakland at St Louis Under 42
Black and white game of the week
Colts -10 (+110) vs WAS
The juice got bumped up, so I called as I think Luck > McCoy. Although my D.C. under bet (7.5) is slightly in jeopardy with McCoy in there (Washington needs to run the table).
TEASER (+275):
BAL -6
NE +3
IND -10
TB +4
Turkey Betting Tips
Give thanks to gambling! Here are my plays:
Chicago +7 and Bears +260
I said I would never bet on a Cutler-led team again, but the Bears woeful secondary gets Kyle Fuller back and the Lions will not have Reggie Bush this game. Bush makes a TD difference in their PPG when he is playing as supposed to when he is not. I also think that Jim Caldwell continues to be in a coma and somehow fucks this one up. The Bears, as bad as they have played, actually have their season on the line today. A win gets them back in the NFC WC hunt. Also another thing working for me, Lou’s “kiss of death” – when all of the NFL pregame show panelists pick one team (the Lions).
PHI v DAL Under 56.5
Way too many points, should be around 50-52.5. This will be played like a grind-it-out playoff game for the NFC East and will be in the early 20s. Also Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo are quarterbacking these football teams.
SF -1 (-115) v SEA
This is more of a hedge towards my season long SF Under bet (10.5 – they are now at 7 wins). I really hope the Saints setting their lead on fire at home to the 49ers a few weeks ago doesn’t cost me this bet.
On a side note – Seattle with their win last Sunday put them back in the NFC #1 seed hunt (Seattle owns a tie-breaker with GB and an Arizona collapse is imminent b/c their QB sucks despite their great defense; they really should start Logan Thomas) – if they get that #1 seed, no one beats them. They are right now 11/2 to win the NFC. They are a very shaky road team BUT I do think (and the video below shows this some) that the Lynch 100k “not talking to the media” fine might have galvanized them.
MNF Special
Thanks to inclement weather, we get to see TWO football games tonight. One good, and the other involving the Bills and Jets. They are playing in Detroit, but won’t be coached by Detroit, so the under (which I like at 42, 70% of the money is on the Over) might NOT be in play. Take what Jim “I went to the Romeo Crennel School of Football Game Theory” Caldwell’s decision yesterday:
You definitely want to keep settling for field goals on the road against a team that averages 40 points a game.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) November 23, 2014
So I like Bills v Jets Under 42 (in Detroit), the over in the Baltimore/New Orleans game (51) and putting both in a parlay and a teaser. I’m also going to take Bills -3 (+110), because I hate myself.
We’ll have some Turkey (betting) Tips for later in the week, including a probable return of the Celtics Over train (5-0) this week when they face Chicago.
