Author: sean

NFL Saturday

Posted in NFL - 2015/01/10 - 0 Comment

2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?

I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals.  The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is.  I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.

The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money.  The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.

Here are the picks:

Seattle -11 (-105)

I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers.  It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada.  Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense.  These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit).  I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play.  But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one.  I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road.  The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead).  I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7.  One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards.  These guys are just happy to be here.

Would Tom Brady or Peyton Manning do this shit?

New England -7

Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town.  Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best.  BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape.  Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays.  The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day.  If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field.  Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs.  The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament.  Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check.  If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings.  Wait, what?  I only thought that happens in the NBA?

Side Thoughts:

Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190.  This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due.  I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.

Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.

NFL Sunday

Posted in NFL - 2015/01/04 - 0 Comment

2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive!  Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO.  For example:

Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)

This was tough game to pick.  Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham).  Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run.  The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close.  Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts.  The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%.  Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however.  But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….

Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)

All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots.  Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams.  The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times.  Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor.  And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”.  Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse.  It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.

TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5

The Quest for Perfection

Posted in NFL, UFC - 2015/01/03 - 1 Comment

Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated).  It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity.  Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.

The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round).  Let’s hope this year brings in perfection.  Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):

Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)

I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games.  I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is.  Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed.  And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score.  The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today.  Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible.  I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well.  I think both games are tight slugfests today.

Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh

No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play.  He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game.  Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road.  They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa.  Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad.  Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows.  So then: what gives them a chance in this game?  Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today).  People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles?  Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad?  No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time).  Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in.  Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix?  I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.

Parlay Special:

CAR ML -260

CAR/ARI Under 38

BAL/PIT Under 45.5

UFC Special:

Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240

Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.

Myles “Fury” Jury +130

He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today.  The problem?  It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated.  This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).

 

 

 

CFB Playoff plays

Posted in NCAA Football - 2015/01/01 - 0 Comment

Oregon vs FSU Under 74 (Nick O’Leary is potentially out for FSU…he’s a BIG part of what they do; the line is huge as it is because FSU has a pretty good defense).

Also teasing this with Alabama -9 (part of which is a freeroll thanks to Bovada).

I’m agreeing with Pat here so that’s dangerous, but we’ve connected like DegenVoltron before to ship bets to not only eat like Kings, but also the Wisconsin Brazilian kicker, after:

 

https://twitter.com/WillHayes_23/status/550750389180448769

 

 

Here’s the Baylor kicker getting laid out…..Happy New Year Everybody!

NFL Week 17

Posted in NFL - 2014/12/28 - 0 Comment

Sad day; it will be the last time this year I get to bet on shitty professional football teams.

New Orleans -4 (now at -5)

Tampa has to lose today, right?  If they lose, I think they get the #1 pick.  Lovie Smith not laying down here to get that pick is a fireable offense, IMO.

Green Bay -7 (now at -7.5)

Lions are missing their center Dominic Raiola today (because he’s the dirtiest player in the league and got suspended before the biggest game of the year), and I get to bet against Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell with Aaron Rodgers.   The Lions last win in Green Bay? 1991, with Mike Tomczak at QB.

Seattle -12 and in Teaser with Under 41.5

If they win today, they get the #1 seed.  We have Seattle at 13/2 to win the NFC, and if they get homefield, they’ll have a great chance to go back to the Super Bowl.  The only team with any chance to beat them in that building are the Cowboys (I can’t believe I just typed that).  They beat them early this year and have a huge advantage against Seattle’s weakness: they can be run on (Dallas has a great O-Line and D.Murray at RB).

Baltimore -14

Big line, but Cleveland apparently were out partying last night, thanks to our boy Johnny Manziel.  Josh Gordon and Justin Gilbert are out today (hungover) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw (who can’t pass, but can run), starts.  Mike Pettine has lost his team 5 weeks too late for us Cleveland under bettors.

Fun prop bet: So Chase Daniel is starting today for KC at home vs SD.  Alex Smith hasn’t throw a touchdown to a Wide Receiver……..ALL YEAR.  Do you know how hard that is?  In either case, I am taking these props:

Dwayne Bowe Catches TD +250

Bowe First TD 12/1

Albert Wilson* First TD 14/1

*I have no fucking idea who this guy is.

I might also take the Titans +7.5; Indy resting everybody today.

TEASER:

GB -7

HOU -8

NO -5

 

 

Friday

Posted in Basketball, NCAA Football - 2014/12/26 - 0 Comment

NCAA:

NC State +2.5 (-125)

FG or Safety first score +195

NBA:

Charlotte at OKC Under 194

The Miracle (Cover) of Christmas

Posted in NCAA Football - 2014/12/24 - 0 Comment

The most craziest miracle cover I maybe have ever seen just happened in the game Lou bet on, Central Michigan +3.5 vs Western Kentucky.

WKU was up 49-14 after 3 periods, and blew that lead via 5 straight TDs in the 4th quarter….including this last one which might be the play of the century:

 

 

CMU goes for 2 at the end for the win, and misses….which is a miracle cover in itself due to the fact that any college line from 4 on up is in jeopardy with their stupid “everybody gets a shot” overtime rules.

 

And it was….a miracle cover.  Somewhere, Romeo Crennel is smiling.

As for me, I start my football betting tonight with Bovada’s “Bowlopoly”, where one can bet and accrue prizes and bonuses off of the property pieces.

The game tonight is the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, and I’ll take Fresno St +2 as well as put them in a teaser with the Over at 60.

The video above has me jacked up for the upcoming gambling season with bowl games as well as the NFL playoffs.  I might try to get Lou and I to do a podcast preview for ya’ll when the wild card matchups are announced.

NFL Week 16

Posted in NFL - 2014/12/21 - 0 Comment

Carolina -4

Newton is playing today, they are at home, still in the NFC South fail title hunt, and most importantly, I get to keep betting against Johnny Manziel!

Oakland +7 (-120)

Way too many points vs Buffalo, who have a great defense but Kyle Orton as QB.  Both of Oakland’s wins have come at home.  As Miracle Covers contributor and Bills fan Nick told me last night…..if you bet the Bills getting a TD in any situation, you deserve to lose your money.  They’ll probably win the game by a FG, 16-13, if i had to guess an exacta.

Atlanta +6 (-105)

This game will be decided by a FG; historically these two teams have always played close games, no matter the record.  Also for an inside track to the NFC South title…so expect a playoff style, grind it out game.  Julio Jones is also active for the Dirty Birds.

IND vs DAL Under 55

A lot of point for a pretty important game for both teams, and their horses (Hilton for IND, Murray for DAL) are banged up and may not play.  As a side note, our boy Cousin Sal gave me a shout out in this week’s prop bets column!

Seattle -8

It’s Ryan Lindley (who in his last start vs Seattle, lost 58-0.   He’s also never thrown a TD pass in his career in 151 straight passing attempts) vs Russell Wilson.  I pick Russell Wilson.

TEASER:

Seattle -8 and NE -11

As Bill Simmons mentioned in his last column, ” If you lose, you do so to either Geno Smith or Ryan Lindley (vs Brady and Wilson). Acceptable odds.”  You can also throw any 3rd team of your choice; ideas for that third team?  DET -9, KC +3, CAR -4.

NFL Week 15

Posted in NFL - 2014/12/14 - 0 Comment

TB +3

Riding the Tampa train again; came close last week and we had a chance for miracle chopportunity at the end of the game as a drive petered out at the 10 yard line.  No Cam Newton today; Derek Anderson beat the Bucs in Week 2 but they were a different team then and Tampa has been 60% ATS since their mauling in Atlanta.

CIN +1.5 (EVEN)

This started at +1 (-110).  I don’t understand why it’s moving in the other direction, unless a bunch of fish are betting on Johnny Football.  In their first meeting, AJ Green wasn’t playing and winds were at 15-20 mph in Cincinnati (which can be no jokes, especially for a QB like Dalton who has very little arm strength).  This is also somewhat a hedge as I have taken both Baltimore (+450) and the Browns (+1200) to win the division.

TEASER: ATL +3 and OVER 55

This will be a close, entertaining, high score game with fail thrown in.  Could be the game of the week.  Means something to both teams.

TEASER (+450):

BAL -14, NE -10, KC -10, DET -8, CIN/CLE Under 44

Also a prop bet, which Darts hipped me onto the last time these two teams played: Over Total FG 3.5 (-110) in the SF at SEA game.  These two teams kicked 6 FGs in their last meeting.

NOTES:

For those thinking about Miami, both Hightower and Chandler Jones are playing today.

Saturday

Posted in Hockey, NCAA Football, UFC - 2014/12/13 - 0 Comment

NCAA:

Army/Navy Under 54.5 (GO ARMY!  BEAT NAVY! OR AT LEAST COVER THE +16!)

NHL:

Anaheim +110

MMA:

Stipe Miocic +300

Palhares v Fitch Goes the Distance +350