Author: pat
MLB over/unders
A stark visual for “game of inches” when you see over/unders during a 60 game stretch. There are outliers but there is very little social distancing going on here. Only team not listed…of course…has to be the Mets. Im guessing this had something to do with folks wanting to make sure deGrom was healthy.
Arizona (31.5)
Atlanta (33.5)
Baltimore (20.5) U -135
Boston (30.5) U -150
CHC (32)
CWS (32.5)
Cincinnati (32) O -150
Cleveland (33.5)
Colorado (27.5)
Detroit (21.5) O -165
Houston (35)
KC (24.5) O-135
LAA (32)
LAD (38.5)
Miami (24.5) U -135
Milwaukee (30.5) O -150
Minnesota (34.5) O -150
NYY (37.5)
Oakland (33.5)
Philadelphia (31)
Pittsburgh (25.5) U -145
San Diego (30.5) O -130
SFG (24.5) U -135
Seattle (24.5) U -135
StL (31.5) O -145
Tampa Bay (34)
Texas (29.5)
Toronto (28) U -135
Washington (33)
NCAAF Over/Unders
What a wonderful time of year. (-150) will be the cut-off to denote heavy juice.
AFA – 6.5 (O -237)
Akron – 3.5 (U -161)
Alabama – 11 (O -165)
App. State – 9
Arizona – 7 (U -256)
ASU – 7
Arkansas – 5
Arkansas St – 7.5
Army – 10
Auburn – 7.5
Ball State – 4
Baylor – 7 (O -210)
Boise St – 10
Boston College – 6 (U -161)
Bowling Green – 3 (O -153)
Buffalo – 6
BYU – 6.5
California – 6 (U -307)
Central Mich – 4
Charlotte – 4.5
Cincinnati – 7 (O -221)
Clemson – 11.5
Coastal Carolina – 4.5
Colorado – 4.5 (U -256)
Colorado St – 3.5
UConn – 2.5
Duke – 5.5
ECU – 4 (O -277)
East Michigan – 6.5 (U -163)
FIU – 7.5
Florida – 9 (U -164)
FAU – 8 (U -178)
FSU – 7 (O -212)
Fresno St – 8 (U -171)
UGA – 11 (U -212)
Ga State – 3.5 (O -180)
Ga Tech – 4 (U -196)
Hawaii – 5.5 (O -159)
Houston – 7 (O -168)
Illinois – 3.5 (O -251)
Indiana – 6 (O -236)
Iowa – 8
Iowa State – 8
Kansas – 3 (U -158)
K State – 5.5
Kent State – 4 (U -185)
Kentucky – 6.5
Liberty – 5.5
Louisiana-Lafayette – 6 (O -173)
La Tech – 7.5
Louisville – 3.5 (O -155)
LSU – 9 (O -167)
Marshall – 7 (O -215)
Maryland – 4
UMass – 2.5
Memphis – 9.5
Miami FL – 8.5 (O -183)
Miami OH – 6 (U -205)
Michigan – 9.5 (O -253)
Mich St – 7.5 (O -225)
MTSU – 5.5 (U -163)
Minnesota – 7.5 (O -159)
Ole Miss – 5
Miss State – 8
Mizzuo – 7.5 (O -202)
Navy – 5
NC State – 7.5 (U -150)
Nebraska – 8.5
Nevada – 6.5 (U -200)
New Mexico – 5 (U -242)
New Mexico St – 3.5
UNC – 4.5 (O -167)
No Texas – 7.5 (O -160)
No Illinois – 7 (U -202)
Northwestern – 6 (O -163)
Notre Dame – 8.5 (O -234)
Ohio – 7.5 (O -173)
Ohio State – 10.5 (U -196)
Oklahoma – 10.5
Ok State – 7
ODU – 4.5 (U -281)
Oregon – 8.5 (O -174)
Oregon St – 2 (O -264)
Penn State – 8.5
Pittsburgh – 6
Purdue – 7
Rice – 2.5 (U -234)
San Diego St – 8
San Jose St – 2.5 (O -206)
SMU – 6 (O -163)
So Alabama – 2.5
So Carolina – 6 (U -150)
So Miss – 7.5 (U -155)
Stanford – 6.5
Syracuse – 7.5
TCU – 7.5
Temple – 6.5
Tennessee – 6.5
Texas – 9.5 (U -242)
Texas A&M – 7.5
Texas St – 4.5 (O -181)
Texas Tech – 6.5 (U -160)
Toledo – 8
Troy – 6.5 (O -202)
Tulane – 5.5 (O -168)
Tulsa – 4.5
UAB – 7 (O -151)
UCF – 9.5
UCLA – 5.5 (O -187)
UL Monroe – 5
UNLV – 4
USC – 7
USF – 7 (U -188)
Utah – 9 (O -160)
Utah St – 7 (U -188)
UTEP – 3
UTSA – 2.5 (O -212)
Vandy – 5 (U -157)
UVA – 7.5 (O -176)
Va Tech – 8 (O -174)
Wake Forest – 6
Washington – 9.5
Washington St – 8
WVU – 5
West Michigan – 7.5
Wisconsin -8.5 (U -153)
WKU – 5 (O -176)
Wyoming – 5.5
Premier Totals
Lets see how these look. We will make -140 our random point to denote heavy juice.
Man City – 90.5
Liverpool – 83.5 (O -207)
Tottenham – 74.5 (U -155)
Chelsea – 68.5 (U -155)
Man Utd – 67.5 (O -155)
Arsenal – 70.5
Leicester – 52.5
Wolves – 52.5 (U -186)
Everton – 52.5
West Ham – 46.5 (O -200)
Watford – 43.5
Newcastle – 43.5 (U -290)
Crystal Palace – 45.5 (U -171)
Bournemouth – 42.5
Southampton – 41.5 (O -152)
Burnley – 38.5
Brighton – 38.5
Norwich – 34.5
Sheffield – 33.5
Aston Villa – 33.5 (O -235)
The Books have learned from their Leicester lunacy a few years back. Aston Villa/Sheffield/etc., or who we can dub “The Regulators” come in at 500:1 these days, not the 5,000:1 prices they got burned on. The juice on the Newcastle Under is glorious, no one likes Mike Ashley.
Quick Note on MLS Lines
Check out these lines for MLS this weekend. The similarities are fairly amazing, with the outliers being NE vs Red Bulls and San Jose vs Sporting KC. I am not sure if this is a schedule quirk, or lazy line-making, or whatever. Kind of amazing.
| (-126) |
| (+331) |
| (+308) |
| (-163) |
| (+416) |
| (+348) |
| (-127) |
| (+343) |
| (+299) |
| (-138) |
| (+404) |
| (+288) |
| (-165) |
| (+458) |
| (+325) |
| (-165) |
| (+450) |
| (+329) |
| (-171) |
| (+494) |
| (+320) |
| (-159) |
| (+448) |
| (+316) |
| (+148) |
| (+191) |
| (+252) |
| (+268) |
| (-103) |
| (+294) |
| (-101) |
| (+302) |
| (+253) |
| (-132) |
| (+355) |
| (+306) |
MLB Over/Unders
Normally do 10 of these guys, but Im going to just go with a few this year. Change is good, maybe 28 or 29 next year. Will update with any more that strike fancy before respective first pitches.
Twins Over 83.5 – The AL Central is looking borderline brutal these days. Salvador Perez needing TJ surg would seem to encapsulate this division well. Minnesota will continue to miss Eduardo Escobar but this roster looks entirely competent amidst a sea of mediocrity. Team almost won 80 games last year with Buxton production less than zero. Genuinely like Mejia and Perez in bullpen ready to help out. Also I do not know this for fact at all, but I would put money on Baldelli being a better game manager and players coach than Molitor.
Astros Under 96.5 – We hit on the Astros Over last year because they were seemingly a team devoid of weaknesses. IMO this cannot be said this year, especially re: pitching. Outside of Cole I trust no one in this rotation. Verlander turned 36 in February and simply cannot be counted on to replicate his stats of the previous year and a half. No McCullers and no Morton = Miley, Peacock, and McHugh. Not impressive. Reddick managed to hit .242 in that lineup last year? I think hes about done. Chirinos sexy but likely overrated.
Student Athletes/Gambling
My apologies if this is not an original idea. I noticed that some states considering legalizing sports gambling are drawing the line at college sports. You would be allowed to gamble on an NBA game, but not an NCAA game. An idea in the “Should student athletes get paid” conversation, whatever non-professional sport events/activities a state deems “gambling worthy,” the participants in that event/activity are eligible to receive a fraction of the revenue generated from wagers made at authorized Books on that event. That fraction of revenue gets divided among athletes attending institutions from states where that activity is “gambleable.”
You could do it as a percentage of money taken in on the event by the Books, or charge the gambler a small tax with any bet. You would not make it tied to how much the Book won or lost on the event as obviously this would have shaving implications. This would be a federal statute that once a state permits gambling on a specific non-professional athletic event, this tax or juice would have to be incorporated. This would maintain the power of the legislature in deciding which events are gambling permissible, it would add zero costs to schools/universities, and it would be a legalized, supervisable way to pay athletes. This would also solve the dilemma “does the backup center for Bucknell get paid the same as Johnny Manziel.” Answer, he does, if his game generates as much gambling action as Manziel’s (It will not).
Who among us hasnt kicked back with a beverage on a mid-Summer afternoon and gambled on a Little League World Series game? If a state deems it worthy that a Little League game was “gambleable,” then yes, a portion of those wagers would be divided among those athletes.
Alabama plays UCLA in NCAAF. Alabama has decided gambling on NCAAF is not permitted. California has decided it is permitted. The tax or juice collected from legal bets made at registered books on the event throughout the United States are divided among the UCLA athletes.
野球
MLB is making us hustle this year on Over/Unders. Just the #s for now. What immediately strikes me is the lack of significant juice in many of these. Anything -125 or higher noted.
Arizona Diamondbacks : 75.5
Atlanta Braves : 86.5 (O -136)
Baltimore Orioles : 58.5
Boston Red Sox : 94.5
Chicago Cubs : 87.5
Chicago White Sox : 73.5
Cincinnati Reds : 78.5 (O -131)
Cleveland Indians : 90.5 (O -125)
Colorado Rockies : 84.5
Detroit Tigers : 68.5
Houston Astros : 96.5
Kansas City Royals : 69.5 (U -125)
Los Angeles Angels : 81.5 (O -136)
Los Angeles Dodgers : 93.5
Miami Marlins : 63.5 (U -135)
Milwaukee Brewers : 86.5
Minnesota Twins : 83.5 (O -133)
New York Mets : 85.5
New York Yankees : 96.5 (O -129)
Oakland A’s : 83.5
Philadelphia Phillies : 89.5
Pittsburgh Pirates : 77.5 (O -133)
San Diego Padres : 78.5 (U -126)
San Francisco Giants : 73.5
St Louis Cardinals : 88.5
Seattle Mariners : 71.5 (O -147)
Tampa Bay Rays : 84.5
Texas Rangers : 71.5 (U -126)
Toronto Blue Jays : 75.5 (U -150)
Washington Nationals : 88.5 (O -137)
MLB Over/Under
Time once again for MLB Over/Unders. Two years ago in predicting a Dodgers’ season under I made this observation…”if Kershaw goes down for a significant stretch this number is instantly unattainable.” Of course, Kershaw missed a chunk of the season and the Dodgers cruised to an over. Increasingly, I am trying to distance myself from statements that sound nice but are not concrete truth. Here we go…
Texas Rangers (Under 77)
If things break right, the Rangers have a chance to be pretty awful this year. Where to start…top pitching prospect Ragans OFS with TJ surg, “could be bad news for a system that isn’t exactly flush with depth.” “Batting Gallo second in the team’s lineup is a ‘very real possibility,'” sounds like a potential disaster. The only SP worth a damn is Cole Hamels, who “continues to struggle with his diminished velocity as age has caught up to him in a hurry.” They signed Big Sexy. You think Elvis is going to repeat ’17 numbers?
Cincinnati Reds (73.5 Over)
Underrated lineup. Votto’s numbers LY are pretty stunning. Price has whispered about moving Hamilton out of leadoff which shows fantastic awareness. The young kid Winker would seem an exciting possibility. Suarez locked up, Barnhart very competent. And they seem to finally be addressing the bullpen. Important signing David Hernandez should help pave way for stud Iglesias.
Los Angeles Dodgers (97 Under)
The cocktail of SPs beneath Kershaw is an unsettling mixture of the elderly, the injury-prone, and the overrated. Alex Wood will likely still be very good this year, but tough to see him being that good. Rich Hill is 38. Ryu hasn’t thrown 150 innings since 2014. Has Maeda ever pitched into the 6th? Chris Taylor will be hard-pressed to reach 80% of his stats. Bellinger looked not only human but bad in the playoffs (29 strikeouts in 64 postseason at-bats.) The image of him consistently swinging over the top of curveballs in Gm 7 may become familiar this year.
San Diego Padres (71.5 Over)
In their trade with the Phillies, SD acquired Freddy Galvis who will “bat near the bottom of a sneaky-decent Padres lineup.” Padres have very good depth in the outfield. In years past, Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero would probably have been cringe-inducing starters, but now are perfectly respectable bench options. No Jered Weaver lunacy this year.
Houston Astros (97.5 Over)
Last year we hit with the Cubs Under. The combination of a high O/U # and too may ?s was our justification. I simply do not see that happening in Houston. 97.5 is a borderline terrifying number, but this team is stacked. McHugh and Peacock are waiting in the wings if any pitcher gets injured or struggles. The plethora of possible early alternatives to cover for the injured Gurriel is a sign of a fully capable farm system.
Tampa Bay Rays (73.5 Under)
This number has plummeted over the last few weeks. Not admitting it but this organization seems to be in early stages of rebuild. Longoria, Odorizzi, Souza, Boxberger, Cobb all gone. When they DFA’d Dickerson I nearly lost sanity for about 45 minutes. They’ll likely have either Kiermaier or Duffy hit 3rd, with neither a good option. Jose De Leon AND Honeywell OFS. Could be a long year.
Los Angeles Angels (83.5 Over)
Two exciting quotes from the folks at RotoWorld for Angels fans. “Going to have an excellent defense across the board” and “vastly improved Angel offense” I am not a massive Justin Upton fan but he had a very solid ’17 and “should be poised for a big 2018 hitting directly behind Mike Trout.” Similar story with Kinsler, who should be a “massive upgrade over what the Angels were able to get at second base in 2017.”
Seattle Mariners (81.5 Under)
When are you going to fall off the cliff Nelson Cruz? Ben Gamel “saying he tailed off in the second-half of the campaign is an understatement.” Cano “relatively disappointing .765 OPS with 6 HRs and 37 RBI in 71 gms post AS game.” Taylor Motter, “owns just a .195/.265/.320 triple-slash across 338 major league at-bats.” David Phelps was expected to be a key member of the bullpen, TJ’d. Say what you will about sentimentality and jersey sales and whatever, not the greatest sign they could afford a 25-man spot on Ichiro.
Atlanta Braves (75 Over)
Honestly just putting this in to fill out the numbers. But, they do have a young, fun team.
New York Mets (81 Over)
I am contractually obligated to take this over.
Weekend Plays
Will post here with any football plays, frantically trying to go back in time and catch up on hockey and basketball.
Kansas St @ Kansas (+24 -106)
It is a depressing thought it is already Week 9 for College Football. Waaaaaaaaaaaay back at the beginning of the season I noted how tempting Kansas’ season over looked @ 3. Ultimately, it was a pass, based largely on analysis from Bill Connelly, who noted that the massive turnover Kansas was going to experience this year in their secondary was a giant, sprawling, waving in your face red flag re: defensive success. Thankfully, we have steered clear of the Jayhawks, but this seems like a good match-up to take a chance on them. Kansas St does not have one of the better aerial attacks in the Big-12, and 90% of the money is on the Wildcats. Kansas seems due, let’s hope.
