Author: pat
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
MLB Over/Unders
Lets dig right in…
Nationals (Under 51.5%) +103
Players like Soto, Trea, Robles give the false impression that Washington is generating young talent assembly line style, but this is an old organization. It would seem quite possible this team is a fairly substantial seller @ the Trade Deadline. Mr Scherzer happens to be reaching the end of his long-term deal, the temptation to sell will be real if team is floundering. The farm system is quite poor, and this segues to another issue for this year, lack of fresh capable reinforcements to call on. Kieboom has shown nothing to indicate he is legit…Side Note on Kieboom, he got Lasik surg over Off Season, how awkward has that conversation have to be for a coach to recommend a pro athlete get eye surgery. “No, no, we are not saying you are bad, no, no, not at all…how many fingers am I holding up?” SPs ERAs were awful last year so team went out and got middle-aged name Jon Lester. If Josh Bell is mediocre (quite possible), or if Robles does not reproduce his 2019, this ‘sounds pretty good on paper’ lineup will struggle. Super, super tough division. And speaking of that super tough division…
Phillies (Over 50.5%) +104
2 bets so far and 2 plus monies…moderately terrifying. Anywhoots, this pick is primarily based on some positive regression, some quality signings, and Dave Dombrowski. “The team’s defense was a serious handicap in 2020. The Phillies allowed a .344 batting average on balls in play, the worst since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders” There are few guarantees in sports gambling, but I would bet my life that this # will lower substantially this year. And more encouraging is that these issues were not really based on SP stuff…”PHI starters last season ranked 10th in the majors in ERA (4.08) and 14th in WHIP (1.29) — and they were the best in the NL East” Bullpen issues are real and destructive, but they are also light-years easier to correct than rotation stuff. The team brings in Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado and I believe they are going to move Velasquez there full-time as well. Dave Dombrowski is not working in his mid-60s so he can watch a team undergo a 4 year rebuild.
Astros (Under 54.5%) +108
Another plus money bet…”Maybe the biggest surprise of the Astros’ offseason was that they didn’t acquire a starting pitcher.” That is a quote from The Athletic BEFORE Whitley out for season and Valdez injury. Now you say to me, buddy, they signed Odorizzi. That is true enough, but the double-edge sword on that is the organization is now apparently close to maxing out payroll with Correa entering a contract year…(No pricey reinforcements on the way). Michael Brantley has a pretty impressive injury history obviously. If he misses time this OF unit does not inspire confidence. And because everything is a circle…
Tigers (Over 42.5%) -105
AJ Hinch certainly does not come off looking like a saint from Monitor-gate, Bang-gate, DontRipMyShirt-gate…but he does not come out of it looking awful either. It gets revealed that twice he took a bat to one of those monitors…he probably should have done more…What Would Bill Belichick do…it was dirty, it was scuzzy, but it showed that Hinch 1) Didnt care for violating the rules 2) Took pro-active action to display his displeasure 3) Eventually said “fuck it. We are being paid to win ballgames.” Numerous beat reporters have noted a positive joo joo in the clubhouse with Hinch around. This club has a lot of quality young talent. I think they make positive strides this year, going something like 74-88, and get consistently better next couple years.
MLB Over/Unders
Vegas continues to proactively nip potential payout issues early by doing season O/Us based on Win %. Hopefully everything continues to go smoothly, I am posting these now and will revisit in a week or 2 to view movement and make picks. I’d imagine the numbers will stay pretty straight forward with most adjustments being made on juice. As there are plenty of lines with a half percentage base, such as 49.5%, it would seem these lines are not getting rounded at all. If you have the over @ 55% and it comes in at 54.8%, you can kick rocks.
ARI : 45.5% (O -138) ~ 73.5
ATL : 56.5% ~ 91.5
BAL : 39.5% ~ 64
BOS : 50.5% (U -150) ~ 82
CHC : 48.5% (U -130) ~ 78.5
CWS : 55% ~ 89
CIN : 49.5% ~ 80
CLE : 49% (O -145) ~ 79.5
COL : 40% ~ 65
DET : 42.5% ~ 69
HOU : 54.5% ~ 88
KC : 46.5% ~ 75.5
LAA : 51.5% ~ 83.5
LAD : 62% (O -154) ~ 100.5
MIA : 45% (U -129) ~ 73
MIL : 51% ~ 82.5
MIN : 54.5% (O -138) ~ 88.5
NYM : 56% (O -131) ~ 90.5
NYY : 59% ~ 95.5
OAK : 52% (O -137) ~ 84
PHI : 50.5% ~ 82
PIT : 36.5% (U -126) ~ 59
SD : 59% ~ 95.5
SEA : 45% ~ 73
SFG : 46% (U -135) ~ 74.5
StL : 53% ~ 86
TB : 52% (O -140) ~ 84
TEX : 42.5% (U -144) ~ 69
TOR : 54% ~ 87.5
WAS : 51.5% ~ 83.5
Quick Gambling Life Post/Question
Some day, someone with eons of time and a super computer needs to to compile the historical data on games like this. Games where the instant you hear the line 85-90% of the betting universe will pick the same side, and importantly, its the only game on in that sport. A game where a healthy team playing at home (doesnt mean as much at the moment I know) that has a better record, is playing a team in poor form; a game that is the only one in town and has a spread that will likely encourage action on the favorite. I went to 4-5 different gambling sites and, of course, all of them have essentially the same 2-1 Everton predicted victory, and of course, cover. Bottom-line question: If this game happens mid-day on Saturday vs solo on a Monday afternoon/evening, is there a marked difference in outcome in relation to spread? Is Southampton, historically, more likely to draw or win (cover) this match-up at this lonely time slot?
PL and NFL O/Us
I think there is a chance we are reaching a tipping point with PL/NFL totals in relation to O/Us. “There are attacking players in this league and maybe preseason and lack of working time plays a part.” -Lampard. Back in the post I made on NFL win totals and division stuff, I noted I kind of liked the Carolina Panthers this year but was staying away because “this is not the year to be counting heavily on rookies and the Panthers D will have more than a few of those running around.” Well those defensive players now have about a month and a half of advanced level studies. Obviously this is more complex than just practice time, the NFL is simply officiated differently than 20 years ago, when wide receivers were assaulted on a weekly basis and then got to watch replays of their life-spans being shortened on Monday Night Countdown. But for the purposes of keeping things simple, I expect goal/point totals to start dropping, even if only slightly, now that folks are better acclimated.
EPL Points Totals
Some absolutely preposterous juice action on a few of these season point totals. “Well we know Sheffield looked great and surprised last year but…” Debating a parlay involving Palace going down and Brighton staying up.
Leeds : 45.5 (U -162)
Liverpool : 85.5 (U -144)
Everton : 48.5 (O -274)
Burnley : 42.5
Arsenal : 64.5 (U -235)
Chelsea : 69.5 (O -164)
Wolves : 57.5
Sheffield : 52.5 (U -490)
Aston Villa : 38.5
Tott : 66.5 (U -210)
West Brom : 34.5
Fulham : 34.5
Newcastle : 37.5
West Ham : 40.5 (O -230)
Leicester : 60.5 (U -178)
Southampton : 51.5 (U -156)
Brighton : 42.5
Man City : 90.5
Man United : 72.5
Crystal Palace : 40.5
NFL Futures, Win totals
You would think Buffalo would be in line to assume control of AFC East but that schedule is rough. Not to say the Pats have it easier but in a push situation Belichick still has the advantage. Meanwhile this has to be influenced by NY money but even the Jets are only 8:1 to win there. At this moment I have money on the Cowboys and Saints to win their divisions and the Conference. Their respective SOS are light; Brees is trending towards a “Im gonna bust my nut to win it one more time” year. The Cowboys D-Line is looking ferocious come the season’s 2nd half, setting up a possible Giantesque run-in. Prescott playing for ‘Dak paper.’ NFC North is a kerfuffle. In any normal year I actually would kind of like Allen Gowins Panthers to surprise a bit w/ a coach and QB looking to prove themselves, but as many have pointed out, this is not the year to be counting heavily on rookies and the Panthers D will have more than a few of those running around. The Colts favored over the Titans would seem to have sucker bet written all over it. I believe the Raiders will struggle early, but gradually improve. Fade early, jump on later. Win totals…
Arizona : 7.5
Atlanta : 7.5
Baltimore : 11.5 (U -142)
Buffalo : 9
Carolina : 5.5
Chicago : 8 (U -150)
Cincy Bungles : 5.5
Cleveland : 8.5
Dallas : 10
Denver : 7.5
Detroit : 7
GB : 9 (U -168)
Houston : 7.5
Indy : 9.5
Jacksonville : 4.5
KC : 11.5
LAC : 8 (U -160)
LAR : 8.5
Las Vegas : 7.5 (U -144)
Miami : 6
Minnesota : 9
New England : 9 (U -143)
New Orleans : 10.5
NY Giants : 6
NY Jets : 6
Philly : 9.5 (U -146)
Pittsburgh : 9.5
SF : 10.5
Seattle : 9.5
TB : 9.5 (O -144)
Tenn : 9
Washington : 5
MLB over/unders
A stark visual for “game of inches” when you see over/unders during a 60 game stretch. There are outliers but there is very little social distancing going on here. Only team not listed…of course…has to be the Mets. Im guessing this had something to do with folks wanting to make sure deGrom was healthy.
Arizona (31.5)
Atlanta (33.5)
Baltimore (20.5) U -135
Boston (30.5) U -150
CHC (32)
CWS (32.5)
Cincinnati (32) O -150
Cleveland (33.5)
Colorado (27.5)
Detroit (21.5) O -165
Houston (35)
KC (24.5) O-135
LAA (32)
LAD (38.5)
Miami (24.5) U -135
Milwaukee (30.5) O -150
Minnesota (34.5) O -150
NYY (37.5)
Oakland (33.5)
Philadelphia (31)
Pittsburgh (25.5) U -145
San Diego (30.5) O -130
SFG (24.5) U -135
Seattle (24.5) U -135
StL (31.5) O -145
Tampa Bay (34)
Texas (29.5)
Toronto (28) U -135
Washington (33)
NCAAF Over/Unders
What a wonderful time of year. (-150) will be the cut-off to denote heavy juice.
AFA – 6.5 (O -237)
Akron – 3.5 (U -161)
Alabama – 11 (O -165)
App. State – 9
Arizona – 7 (U -256)
ASU – 7
Arkansas – 5
Arkansas St – 7.5
Army – 10
Auburn – 7.5
Ball State – 4
Baylor – 7 (O -210)
Boise St – 10
Boston College – 6 (U -161)
Bowling Green – 3 (O -153)
Buffalo – 6
BYU – 6.5
California – 6 (U -307)
Central Mich – 4
Charlotte – 4.5
Cincinnati – 7 (O -221)
Clemson – 11.5
Coastal Carolina – 4.5
Colorado – 4.5 (U -256)
Colorado St – 3.5
UConn – 2.5
Duke – 5.5
ECU – 4 (O -277)
East Michigan – 6.5 (U -163)
FIU – 7.5
Florida – 9 (U -164)
FAU – 8 (U -178)
FSU – 7 (O -212)
Fresno St – 8 (U -171)
UGA – 11 (U -212)
Ga State – 3.5 (O -180)
Ga Tech – 4 (U -196)
Hawaii – 5.5 (O -159)
Houston – 7 (O -168)
Illinois – 3.5 (O -251)
Indiana – 6 (O -236)
Iowa – 8
Iowa State – 8
Kansas – 3 (U -158)
K State – 5.5
Kent State – 4 (U -185)
Kentucky – 6.5
Liberty – 5.5
Louisiana-Lafayette – 6 (O -173)
La Tech – 7.5
Louisville – 3.5 (O -155)
LSU – 9 (O -167)
Marshall – 7 (O -215)
Maryland – 4
UMass – 2.5
Memphis – 9.5
Miami FL – 8.5 (O -183)
Miami OH – 6 (U -205)
Michigan – 9.5 (O -253)
Mich St – 7.5 (O -225)
MTSU – 5.5 (U -163)
Minnesota – 7.5 (O -159)
Ole Miss – 5
Miss State – 8
Mizzuo – 7.5 (O -202)
Navy – 5
NC State – 7.5 (U -150)
Nebraska – 8.5
Nevada – 6.5 (U -200)
New Mexico – 5 (U -242)
New Mexico St – 3.5
UNC – 4.5 (O -167)
No Texas – 7.5 (O -160)
No Illinois – 7 (U -202)
Northwestern – 6 (O -163)
Notre Dame – 8.5 (O -234)
Ohio – 7.5 (O -173)
Ohio State – 10.5 (U -196)
Oklahoma – 10.5
Ok State – 7
ODU – 4.5 (U -281)
Oregon – 8.5 (O -174)
Oregon St – 2 (O -264)
Penn State – 8.5
Pittsburgh – 6
Purdue – 7
Rice – 2.5 (U -234)
San Diego St – 8
San Jose St – 2.5 (O -206)
SMU – 6 (O -163)
So Alabama – 2.5
So Carolina – 6 (U -150)
So Miss – 7.5 (U -155)
Stanford – 6.5
Syracuse – 7.5
TCU – 7.5
Temple – 6.5
Tennessee – 6.5
Texas – 9.5 (U -242)
Texas A&M – 7.5
Texas St – 4.5 (O -181)
Texas Tech – 6.5 (U -160)
Toledo – 8
Troy – 6.5 (O -202)
Tulane – 5.5 (O -168)
Tulsa – 4.5
UAB – 7 (O -151)
UCF – 9.5
UCLA – 5.5 (O -187)
UL Monroe – 5
UNLV – 4
USC – 7
USF – 7 (U -188)
Utah – 9 (O -160)
Utah St – 7 (U -188)
UTEP – 3
UTSA – 2.5 (O -212)
Vandy – 5 (U -157)
UVA – 7.5 (O -176)
Va Tech – 8 (O -174)
Wake Forest – 6
Washington – 9.5
Washington St – 8
WVU – 5
West Michigan – 7.5
Wisconsin -8.5 (U -153)
WKU – 5 (O -176)
Wyoming – 5.5
