Author: pat
MLB Play(s) 4/2
Harang himself could possibly give up this Over. Garza pitched horrifically during Spring Training.
Braves @ Brewers Over 8.5 +108 @ 10
MTD : +10.00
MLB Play 4/1
Erasmo Ramirez is my boy. I had to unfortunately jettison him from my AL Keeper League at a good price. Let’s show him some love.
Mariners +1.5 -140 @ 14
MTD : 0.00
2014 MLB Over/Unders
Lou and I had very respectable showings in this last year. Let’s see how things go this year. As always, the stakes are a pub crawl…
10)San Francisco Giants Under 86.5 The Giants in recent years have begun to diversify their portfolio, adding increasingly mediocre pitching to a team that couldn’t score runs. After winning only 76 games last year they went out and signed a soon to be 39 year old pitcher in Tim Hudson, and Michael Morse whose career numbers are surprisingly lame. I’m not even talking about how much he likes to strike out, did you know he has only once hit 20 hrs in a season? The only thing that possibly saves everyone is Sandoval carrying the team on some crazy contract year.
9)Texas Rangers Under 87 I just saw that Tanner Scheppers, he of zero career starts, is getting the ball today. The Rangers will be counting on the likes of Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, and Robbie Ross, whoever the Hell that is. And while you could note that some of these guys are stopgaps, the folks they are filling in for aren’t the most confidence-inspiring group either, with Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis making a combined 2 starts last year.
8)Cincinnati Reds Under 84.5 I think Choo leaving is going to hurt quite a bit. Outside of Votto and Bruce this lineup is not impressive. The pitching staff is solid but like half their bullpen is starting the season on the disabled list.
7)Cleveland Indians Over 80.5 I know the Indians were probably more lucky than good last year, but this is still a solid team. Good rotation, decent lineup, and Axford is looking like a strong rebound candidate.
6)Atlanta Braves Under 87.5 Very similar to the Texas injury situation. They have a very good bullpen but you need people to get you there. The lineup is good but it seems slightly awkward. Heyward as leadoff and Chris Johnson hitting cleanup do not seem ideal. Gattis better stay healthy and productive.
5)Chicago White Sox Under 76.5 The pitching staff isn’t awful, but they would need pretty much everyone in there to have career years in order to be a competitive team. God help them if Chris Sale gets injured. I like the addition of Adam Eaton, but like many of the other bats in this lineup, he is laregly an unproven commodity.
4)Boston Red Sox Under 88 Do you expect Buckholz to go 12-1 again? Do you expect David Ortiz to match any of the power numbers he put up last season? Do you expect Victorino to flirt with .300 again? Nava, Carp, and Napoli to repeat their numbers? Too often Middlebrooks and Bradley Jr will be exposed this year I believe. And though I love his potential, Xander has not actually done anything yet.
3)Oakland A’s Under 88.5 I am not the world’s biggest Bartolo fan, but Oakland will miss him. Think about this rotation, Colon gone, Parker injured, Griffin injured, Millone suspect, Gray unproven, Balfour gone.
2)Miami Marlins Over 69.5 The same phrase emerges when reading Miami previews. They aren’t going to contend, but they will be improved. I can believe it.
1)Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5 If you recall, the Blue Jays were the hotness going into things last year. In fact they were the odds on World Series favorites at one point around January. The point with that is simply to note there is still a solid amount of talent on this team. Enough to win half their games at any rate.
NHL Play
Nothing doing on NCAAM plays just yet. It’s going to sound weird but the result that is most surprising to me so far very early is Syracuse winning easily. One of the first odds I looked up was on Syracuse not making the Sweet 16.
Dallas Stars @ Philadelphia Flyers ML -139 @ 14
NBA Play
Raptors @ Hawks +3 -102 @ 13
Largely brain dead from St Patrick’s Day weekend so this will be a quickie. As I noted to Louis, it is nice when you have a big weekend, and you wake up Monday morning and don’t find a thread of mind-blowingly horrific bets. “Lakers moneyline? Devils over?? Fairfield second half?!?!?!”
MTD : -24.68
NHL Play
There are figuratively 4 million college basketball games on right now but I am taking a hockey game. Amazing, amazing stuff regarding Vancouver recently.
Edmonton Oilers +1.5 -113 @ St Louis @ 13
MTD : -11.68
UFNs
Lou recently noted the Canucks had officially moved into the “Do Not Bet Until Further Notice” category. UFNs generally result from a team playing so well, or much more likely, so poorly, there can be only one course of action for the immediate future. UFN is pronounced You F’n. The 76ers are a prime UFN candidate right now, but Vegas is aware of whats up. If you place a 20 dollar bet on them to lose tonight you will be rewarded with 67 cents American if the Knicks win. UFN kidding me?
San Francisco +5.5 -106 vs BYU @ 12
MTD : -23
Puck Line
A couple years ago I asked about reverse run lines in baseball. Similar situation here with hockey. It has taken me a while in scoping out hockey lines to see that sites like covers.com seem to use ambiguous (some would say wrong) language. They tell me what percentage of the public is taking a side. Fine. What’s not fine is that they ultimately list these picks as ATS. But these are money line picks. Unless I am off-base, sites like covers and thespread run contests where people enter in ML picks and the site turns around and displays these as betting trends. Obvious flaws if this is the actual system are that these picks are not being made based on actual wagers and the puck line is not even a consideration. I want to know
1) if my claims about these sites are correct
2) if there are sites that give actual betting numbers for the money line
3) if there are sites that give actual betting numbers for the puck line
4) what love is
Marching Forward
Nauseating last 2 months on my end. When I should have realized things were getting ugly was when Tott was up against Newcastle 0-2 and I had 0-2, 1-2 and 1-3 scorelines covered on bets and the final went 0-4. Forward.
Cardiff City vs. Fulham Draw +240 @ 12
***UPDATE***
I am not 1000% on this but I think there is a conference tournament being held in Asheville, North Carolina (Southern Conf.), and that UNC Asheville (Big South) is not a member of said conference.
Pitts @ Clemson ML +109 @ 11
MTD : -12