Author: lou
Ghana 60:1
I added some Ghana World Cup futures at 60:1 to go with the 35:1 on Uruguay. Both of these teams are in the same pod (with the United States) and should either make the semis, we can start to pull out some equity by betting on their opponent to advance. Of course, If the US makes the semis, I won’t care about either of these.
Games to Avoid
Basically the rest of the group phase. I’ve got nothing for the next day or two.
It is the time for the fixes.
Here is what I know.
The fixers are in South Africa. They have been desperately trying to contact various teams. They have various runners and old contacts coming in and out of the hotels and training camps. They are trying ‘to do the business’ with various players and administrators.
Given these circumstances which matches should we red-flag for possible corruption?
1)Games where one team has nothing to play for. Even if they win the teams will not progress to the next stage of the competition.
2)Teams which have a history of not paying their players properly. It is the phenomenon of relative exploitation which drives fixing. The officials receive lots of money, the players comparatively little.
The games I will be watching closely are Cameroon vs. the Netherlands and Honduras vs. Switzerland. In no way do I want to suggest that I have heard anything about players on these teams being open to fixing matches. In no way do I want to suggest that even if they had been approached the players would have taken money. But I do want to say that if either of these teams loses by more than the Asian ‘spread’ of goals (2 goals and above) then FIFA should bring in their toothless tigers of investigators and begin to ask questions.
Have to post this:
Goal! Goal USA!
Group A Bets
Kickoff is in under an hour…
South Africa PK +170 vs. France is on strike
Going with the point spread here. This will push on a draw. I have a small amount on SA +280 straight up as well.
Uruguay/Mexico o2 +175
I’ll be livebetting this one and putting my 100% live betting record at risk in this one. The draw for this game has gone from -150 to nearly even as the 2nd place team will have to face Argentina in the second round. Mexico will not be playing for a draw. Not willing pick a result up front, but I really like the over 2. I also loved the over 2 on both of Chile’s games, but their lack of finishing turned those bets into losers. We’ll see what Mexico and Uruguay have today.
EDIT: Knockout round scenarios entering the final group games are here.
World Cup Week 2
Adding some more action no doubt spurred by the increase in scoring that was inevitable, even if it was hard to profit from some of the scoring. We took a bad beat taking Australia/Ghana o2.5 +165 when there was no scoring after Harry Kewell’s red card and subsequent penalty prior to the half hour mark. England drawing 0-0 didn’t help either.
Denmark & Cameroon meanwhile looked incredibly poor in their opening games and laughed at o/u 2 as neither team defended well or with much interest. The 2-1 final should have been more like 3-3.
Action we are adding:
o2½+140 (IVORY COAST/BRAZIL)
o2+120 (SWITZERLAND/CHILE)
TO WIN – FIFA WORLD CUP URUGUAY +3500
We know from the given match odds that Uruguay is roughly 75% likely to win their group, doing so with a win or draw against Mexico. If they succeed, their reward is a 2nd round game against Greece/South Korea/Nigeria, all three of whom they will be favored against. Getting 35:1 on a team that’s a favorite to advance to the quarterfinals is good value. Also keep in mind that the way the bracket shakes out, teams from Groups A-D won’t face Groups E-G until the semifinals. There’s a decent chance pre-tournament favorites Spain and Brazil will face each other in the round of 16. Uruguay winning their group would also see them avoid Argentina in round 2. Should Uruguay fail to win their group, any value at 35:1 will cease to exist.
Lastly, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to all fans attending last night’s game against Tampa.
Looking to feed off World Cup soccer buzz, the Marlins gave away plastic air horns to fans as they entered the stadium, the toy instruments creating a loud and never-ending soundtrack for the night. Similar to the vuvuzelas that dominate the audio landscape at matches in South Africa, the buzzing of the horns blared from long before the first pitch, and some were still going at the end.
The horns might have been a hit with fans, but they were a big miss with those on the field, especially because all the noise could have prompted a lineup-card miscommunication between Gonzalez and Barksdale.
“It was the most uncomfortable baseball game I’ve been a part of in a long time because of that,” crew chief Tom Hallion said. “Whether that had anything to do with it, I don’t know, but it could have. When’s the last time you heard something like that at a baseball game? Never. You don’t see this kind of stuff at baseball games.”
Said Maddon: “I really believe the horns should be banned from Major League Baseball.”
Added Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who, like the umpires, resorted to earplugs: “That was the worst handout or giveaway I’ve ever been a part of in baseball. This isn’t soccer. I know the World Cup is going on, but this is baseball.”
And this from Marlins center fielder Cody Ross: “It was awful, awful. I can’t tell you how awful it was.”
Snooze
16 games, 32 teams, 25 goals. Betting the under in every game would have given you a 13-1-2 record so far. The only over to hit was Germany’s 4-0 win over Australia. Brazil/North Korea pushed on a 3 goal line and Greece/South Korea did the same at 2. 8 games were 0-0 at halftime.
Uruguay hit an over yesterday in the second group game and Argentina has an early goal this morning, so things are looking up. Having not looked at the lines in detail for this second batch of games, there has to be some value in some overs going forward. I wonder if the weather has anything to do with it?
Also, we’re adding a play England -450 vs. Algeria
World Cup Betting
The World Cup just kicked off 45 minutes ago with South Africa and Mexico tied 0-0 at half. Some various bets I’m recommending so far:
Uruguay to win Group A +350
This one is already off the board as Group A starts today, but this was also available at +400. Even odds for a team that should be slightly better than that in the most wide open group of the eight.
New Zealand Total Goals Under 1.5
New Zealand failed to score at the Confederations Cup in 2009 against Spain, Iraq and South Africa. They scored one goal in 180 minutes against Bahrain to qualify. They haven’t scored more than one goal in a competitive game in a very long time (games against fellow South Pacific island nations excluded). That said, they’ve been very good in warmups, beating Serbia 1-0 and nearly drawing Australia, losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal. They still haven’t scored more than one goal in a game though. NZ plays Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia in the group stage and this bet says they won’t score in two of those games.
Greece – South Korea 0-0 Draw +600
Greece is quite possibly the most boring team in the tournament and +600 or so is probably going to be offered on this exact bet for all three of their games. South Korea will likely have to manufacture a goal from open play as Greece are very good on set pieces, which will also be their best chance to score. The over/under for this game is 2, not 2.5, so not a lot of goals are expected. This, along with New Zealand, is a high variance play.
Brazil -1000 vs North Korea
Brazil has to win this game over 90% of the time for this to be profitable. It’s very, very difficult to envision them losing to a North Korea team that we know almost nothing about but isn’t particularly good.
Portugal/Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals +135
A little secret about these two teams is that neither of them are particularly good at defending.
Brazil Goals for the Tournament Over 6.5 -110
This is not the most prolific scoring Brazil team to grace the World Cup, but they aren’t up against the strongest defensive teams either. This will may hinge on how many goals they score in their opener if Brazil have problems in their group. Brazil have scored 10+ goals in six of the last seven World Cups.
Quiet No More
April is traditionally a slow gambling month. Despite the NHL and NBA playoffs kicking off, there’s not usually much action to be found. Thankfully, a couple of items have popped up for this weekend:
Les Habitants
From Puck Prospectus:
December 19th is the line of demarcation for me. That’s when Montreal’s prime mover, defenseman Andrei Markov, returned from a freak injury suffered on opening night. At that point in the season––through 37 games––the Canadiens had gone a poor but rather fortunate 16-18-3 (.473 winning percentage) given the fact that they were 8-3 in extra time. Montreal detractors––which includes essentially everyone writing or talking hockey right now, from the conventional pundits to my sabermetrically savvy colleagues at Puck Prospectus––point to the uninspiring results of those early season Price-led, Markov-less Canadiens when explaining away how fortunate the Habs were to upset the Capitals and why they have no shot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. But you’re talking about two completely different teams. Whether conflating those two teams indiscriminately, or conflating them in the name of collecting a larger sample size, you’re bound to get fooled by these Habs, and surprised by the results.
After Markov’s return, the Canadiens finished the final 45 games of the regular season with a fine 23-15-9 (.589 winning percentage) run – as hot as any Eastern Conference team over that stretch of games, other than––of course––Washington. Even more impressively, with Markov in the lineup and Halak in goal, Montreal transformed from a team scoring 2.47 GF/game (30th in NHL) and allowing 2.88 GA/game (18th in NHL) with -0.41 GD/game (25th in NHL) to a team scoring 2.91 GF/game (8th in NHL) and allowing 2.48 GA/game (4th in NHL) with a 0.42 GD/game (5th in NHL). Sure, the team that beat the Capitals may have been the “16th overall seed”––lucky to get in the playoffs over the Rangers with a mere 88 points––but don’t get fooled: it was the 5th best team in the league upsetting the best team in the league with the help of an outstanding performance in goal.
But December 19th is not just for the Canadiens; it provides an illuminating starting point for looking at the Penguins as well. Through 36 games, Pittsburgh was a scalding 25-10-1 (.708 winning percentage), fourth in the NHL at +25 GVT, a hair’s breadth behind Washington’s league-leading +30 GVT. Yet over the next 46 games, the Pens went a tepid 22-18-6 (.543 winning percentage), their lackluster performance camouflaged by the wins and points accumulated in October and November. Keeping in mind that a .561 winning percentage is average––given the additional points given for overtime losses––you’re talking about a below average team over the course of more than half the regular season, regardless of their pedigree as defending Stanley Cup champions, regardless of their marquee exposure, regardless of their big name superstars. Perception is about as far from reality as you can get – With both teams.
The series is currently tied at 2-2 and you can get the same price on Montreal to win the series, roughly +300, as was available four games ago. I’ve also got small action on Montreal wo win the East and the Stanley Cup at +900 and +2200 respectively.
La Liga
It’s the second to last week of the season and once again time to involve the favorite team of Miracle Covers: Athletico Madrid.
Opponents Sporting Gijon are -150 at home tomorrow.
Since mid-March, two teams have been playing their La Liga matches as though the tournament were a sporting version of Asterix’s Roman Legion: an entertaining way to know new cities, make some friends and get food for free. Atletico are one of them.
Atletico’s week passed by placidly, talking about their upcoming Europa League final, with happy statements from players and coach (Quique Sanchez even said: “We work to bring happiness to the people”, and I can’t even think of a politically correct pun here). They even managed to beat Valladolid on Wednesday, in an almost unintended way, taking advantage of Clemente’s team wasteful first half and subsequent hara-kiri after Atletico scored first.
Sporting aren’t totally free of trouble yet, but they will be after playing Atletico’s B side on Saturday.
Lastly, the Round Rock Express have a new pitcher.
MLB 2010 Season Win Totals Over/Under
I’ve never done well betting on baseball games. Sure, I’m smart enough to know that when an overmatched scrub shortstop is up against a hard throwing closer, strikeouts and popups will result(or as Chip Caray would say, “Fisted!”). Translating that into an appreciable edge is something I’ll leave to gamblers braver than I. These annual season over/unders represent 80% of my baseball betting in a given year with fantasy baseball taking up the rest.
EDIT: Current lines from Pinnacle are here.
Unfortunately, this isn’t 2008 when Tampa and Seattle provided two of the easiest covers available in the past decade, both clearing by August. It’s not even 2009 where the same Seattle team covered again thanks to their outfield defense, this time on the over. There’s not a whole lot of value out there and as such, these plays are going to be on the small side. Both of mine are in the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 88.5
What keeps teams like St. Louis and Anaheim so damned good every year is not only their great players being great, but the lack of suckiness throughout the rest of the team. A completely average team with 1-2 superstars will win 90+ every season. Throw in a replacement player or two and you’ll only be good for 80+. Tampa won 84 games last season despite having near black holes in CF, RF and DH. It’s VERY hard to win when 1/3 or even 1/7 of your lineup is an automatic out. Those holes weren’t expected, but they were there and it’s very hard to compensate.
As far as this season, Zobrist will likely regress but so long as he’s average and not the Zobrist of 2007 that’s OK. They could use an upgrade at catcher, but so could 15 other teams, and we’re only looking for a 5-win improvement. The pitching staff is solid from top to bottom and players like Andy Sonnanstine and Reid Brignac are valuable trade chits should injuries strike.
Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 71
Crap starting pitching. A commitment to rebuilding. No one outside of Canada who doesn’t play fantasy baseball could name more than three starters for this team who also conveniently play 60+ games versus TB, BOS and NYY. It’s easy to get caught out on under bets when a team is not legitimately rebuilding (Houston) and will happily punt September to give it’s young players playing time. That won’t be a problem here. Toronto’s rotation had problems without Halladay’s near-guarantee of 200+ innings and a sub-3.50 ERA. Replace those starts with more from Romero, Cecil, Richmond and Purcey and it’s not going to be pretty. You want to look for teams whose own players really won’t give a crap when September rolls around. You want the Toronto Blue Jays.
Boat Race 2010 – Will a Boat Sink?
The 156th Oxford-Cambridge boat race takes place tomorrow in London. Oxford are favored at roughly -250, but picking the winner isn’t the most interesting play.
Pinnacle has a line (below) for “Will a Boat Sink?” currently at -1650. I know most of you don’t enjoy betting large favorites, but a boat has only sunk 5 times in 156 races and none in the past 30 years. The flip side is that the odds opened at 33-1 and have been cut almost in half thanks to poor weather being forecast and mildly heavy betting on the sinking side. 
I think I’ve written about this before, but rowing was THE sport, similar to NFL in the United States now, in the 19th century, but it’s popularity waned as gambling scandals and fixing became more and more common. There is much to read here (rowinghistory.net) but these two stories stood out:
Another tactic used by the unscrupulous backers was to try to influence the betting odds. Faking an illness just prior to a race is one way to boost the odds and make for a bigger pay-out after the unexpected victory, but there were other ways as well. Cleaver wrote in The History Of Rowing about a race between the Australians, Harry Searle and Julius Woolf, on the Parramatta River in 1866.
Woolf had been defeated by Stansbury a fortnight earlier, so he was not much in favor with the betting public, and it looked as if Searle’s backers would have to be content with the bare prize-money. John Spencer [Searle’s manager] refrained from betting at all before the start of the race, and instructed Searle to hang back and “feel” Woolf in the early stages, and, as soon as he was sure of his man, to shake his head from side to side, but not to go to the front until he got a signal from Spencer, who was in a boat following the race.
The race had barely started when Searle’s head was seen to wobble violently. This caused loud laughter among those who had never seen Searle race before. Meanwhile, his commissioners were snapping up every bet offered, with Woolf still leading and going great guns. Suddenly Spencer waved a red handkerchief and in a hundred yards Searle was a length ahead, and the issue beyond doubt.
The Town of Barrie [Canada] was holding its second annual regatta on Kempenfeldt Bay and had invited an American, James H. Riley, to row against Hanlan. The champion [Hanlan] had agreed, against his better judgement. He was not in good condition after his recent trip across the Atlantic, and halfway through the course Hanlan had to stop. Riley was stunned and refused to cross the finish line. He had obviously placed bets on Hanlan and would lose his money if he won the race. The judges were flabbergasted by the whole affair, ruled the race a draw and ordered a re-row. Hanlan declined, preferring to forfeit the prize money.
Big East Fail
Absolutely nothing doing on these Sweet 16 or NIT games. Butler looks to have peaked at +7.5 against Syracuse. It was a lean for me at that number, I’d have played it at 8, but it’s back down to 6.5 and a pass like the rest of the games. Northern Iowa is +1.5 against a Lucas-less Michigan State but 1) the numbers aren’t showing this as a great play and 2) I’m not sure how much this line is overrating the Kansas game. Nothing stands out on totals either, but I haven’t looked in depth.
Two stories today:
From The Daily Fix:
What makes the Big East’s start so poor is that the selection committee gave top-three seeds to five of its teams, suggesting that those five should have been good bets to reach the Sweet 16. That makes the 6-6 record even worse than if the eight teams all had mediocre seeds.
Overall, the Big East’s seeds could have been expected to collect 6.5 first-round wins and 3.9 berths in the Sweet 16. Instead they collected four and two, respectively, for letdowns of -2.5 and -1.9 — or 39% and 49%, respectively. In absolute terms, the Big East was by far the most disappointing conference. The SEC’s four representatives won two first-round games, compared to an expected 2.9 — but those two winners, Kentucky and Tennessee, also won in the second round to exceed overall expectations for the conference. And the Big 12 had two Sweet 16 teams, compared to an expectation of 2.9, but did outperform slightly in the first round, with five wins compared to an expectation of 4.9. In percentage terms, Conference USA and the Western Athletic Conference were worse, with neither league having a single tournament win, but neither could have been expected to have a Sweet 16 entrant.
Notes from the NCAA Hoops Head Coach Meat Market (Sports Economist)
Welcome to the sausage making factory, hoops fans. Former St. John’s coach Norm Roberts was unable to sign big name recruits from the Big Apple. Why? He played by the rules. Some of the quotes in this article are shocking. “You got to hustle here, bend some rules or do something…” Russel Smith, a coach with the New York Gauchos, a prominent NYC AAU team. “At St. John’s, they’re not getting certain types of players because they’re doing things the right way.” Kenny Wilcox, head coach at a junior college in Brooklyn.
